Flat racing Weds 27th July

[bowles10]

5.30 Goodwood MUSHARAKAAT has some decent form when you consider its runs this season have been a group 2 and 2 listed races. It should be top weight here but gets the 3yo allowance from the older horses as does the other 3yo's. ignore the Ribblesdale where it was outclassed, its other races have shown the horse has some ability, however i would like to see it taken to the front and see what happens as i dont think a hold up ride will help it over this shorter distance. 0.5pts win @ 16/1 >B365

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July 2:00 Goodwood: Spirit of Adjisa 1pt win 5/1 Bet365 This is the sort of race that hurdlers do well in, and Spirit of Adjisa who has been on a sharp upward curve with Tim Vaughan over the smaller obstacles looks dangerous if he can find at least some of that improvement back on the flat. Spirit of Adjisa has a fine record over timber, winning two novice hurdles last year, before picking up a Grade One at Punchestown in May. There is no telling whether Spirit of Adjisa can translate his new found form to the level, however its worth chancing at the price that he can, and Tim Vaughan who has been in cracking form recently has presumably not booked Ryan Moore lightly. 2:35 Goodwood: Red Seventy 1pt win 9/1 William Hill Richard Hannon looks to be going all out to win this, and its very interesting that although he tries again with Chandlery against Red Duke, he also has three other runners in the line up, which would indicate there is not much between them. Red Seventy was quite impressive when winning at Ascot in a novice event from Sixx. He had to wait for a gap to appear yet quickened nicely when an opportunity arose. That still leaves him a fair bit to find, however Red Seventy with Pat Dobbs again in the saddle, has only raced twice and there could be more to come from this unbeaten colt. 3:10 Goodwood: Rajsaman 1pt win 33/1 Boylesports With a just a four runner field tactics will play a huge part, and after Saturday when a big race did not not start as widely anticipated, this could have the makings of a shock. In many ways that would not be good for racing, yet can't help but think that Rajsaman looks very big at 33/1, He does possess a sharp turn of foot and his third to Goldikova and defeat of Byword reads pretty well. Its a fair way short of the big two, but if they concentrate too much on each other or get the fractions wrong, then Rajsaman could use his burst of speed to nip in. Freddie Head is in fine form, three from eight in the last fortnight and the blinkers are back on today, which he wore when probably producing his best form against Byword.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July 2.00 Goodwood - 0.5pts e/w Addwaitya @ 25/1 (Bet365) - BOG The Goodwood Stakes is a bit of a guessing game, with the vast majority of runners unproven over such a marathon trip of 2m5f. My selection is one of those, but there's hope, and I'm happier to take a punt on him at a big price, than some of the short priced horses who have to prove they stay. Addwaitya is a quirky horse who perhaps has spent most of his career racing over insufficient trips. However, 2 of his 4 career wins have come at Goodwood, with 2 at Folkestone. He's clearly at home on undulating courses, and it gives hope for his effort tomorrow. He should enjoy running downhill as they come for home, and might just be finishing better than most. Laura Mongan first sent the horse over a staying trip at Folkestone 2 starts ago, and he really impressed. Settled in the rear by Fergus Sweeney, he gave him an ultra-confident ride as he was still travelling well quite a way off the lead with 2f left. He switched him to the outside and started to thunder home, quickly working his way to the front and running on to score. It put any stamina doubts to bed, and suggested he could be well treated over marathon trips. He ran at Newbury last time out over 2 miles and again came from off the pace, but this time couldn't get involved in a tougher race. He did keep on well though, despite a few bits of trouble down the straight, and ended up finishing an 8 1/2l 5th of 12. It was a solid run, and the winner was absolutely thrown in it was proven - as Keys hacked up, before winning again last week at Ascot. Addwaitya shaped as if he'd get even further, and I hope this proves correct. Back at a track which will suit him to the ground (2/3 at Goodwood - with excuses on his only defeat), and up in trip might just see him put in a big show against potentially more classy rivals. Many of these have to prove they stay, and I think the Laura Mongan trained gelding has a better chance than most. Another 5f is quite a lot, but the way he's seen out his races the last twice offers hope, and he is related to stamina-laden horses. He's a half-brother to a horse placed over 2m, his dam won over 12f and her half-sister won over as far as 15f. It's a guess, really, and there's a decent chance he won't quite see it out, but it's a risk worth taking at such a big price.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Goodwood 15:10
Selection	Frankel
Strength	8/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 1.80
Reasoning	Unbeaten in 7 career starts inlcuding three Group 1's (Dewhurst, 2000 Guineas, and St James Palace). He goes for a third consecutive Group 1 today. He's the only 3yo in the field and gets a hefty 3yo allowance. The small field should not be a problem and he can make all if that's what it needs. He proved that in the 2000 Guineas when he made all to win by 6 lengths. 3yo's have won the last three renewals and all were favorites by the name of Henrythenavigator, Rip Van Winkle, and Canford Cliffs. Canford Cliffs defeated the defending champion Rip Van Winkle last year. I think Frankel will do the same to last years defending champion today.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July Redcar 15:55 Christmas Light @ 2pts win 3rd of 7 by 1 ½ lengths LTO at this course (1m) 10 days ago. The ground was Good to Soft. Will appreaciate this longer trip (1m2f) and quicker ground. She finished 2nd by 1 length three runs ago to Virtousity and Virtual’s brother Judicious who won at the C&D in his penultimate run by 2 ¾ lengths. She followed up with a 4th of 8 by 3 ¼ lengths at Doncaster (1m) being upped in Class from 5 to a 4. She was behind Mazamorra (cost $120,000), Gracefield (Godolphin) , and Submission (Group 3 entry next month). Her last three runs have been this month and today looks to be the easiest one yet. Redcar 17:05 Fairy Mist @ 2pts win Unraced £180,000 foal, £170,000 yearling for owner Derrick Smith and trainer A P O Brien. Did not see the course until this year for trainer Brian Rothwell with jockey Paddy Aspell having been on board all six races. His efforts have been improving all year and he’s a strong candidate to give Rothwell his first win the last 5 seasons. He’s gone winless in 97 runs the last 5 seasons with 5 able to finish 2nd. It is also owned by him and the last two years have been better than the previous 12. He had two 2nd’s last year from 8 runs on the flat. This year have 19 runs for 1 2nd, 2 3rds, and 4 4ths. He’s not raced on a straight course and that could make him run a big race. He’s shown to have a strong finish and this course should help that with it not having any turns.

[Striker]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July Good Luck 5.30 Goodwood-Valencha 1pt ew @ 8-1 [bet365] Interesting now she steps up to a trip that gives indication will suit on a track already won on

[chris34]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July 3.55 Redcar Persian Peril has been in good form recently and comes into this on a double penalty having won at Ayr and then followed up the next day at Musselburgh, will certainly find this tougher and form on fast ground is pretty non exsitent which is a massive worry despite a claimer take off a very useful 7lb. Petomic is also in good form but currently looks held by the handicapper. If this had been run on the AW I would be keen on Hidden Glory as he appears to be running into form but his overall strike rate is far from impressive and seems half the horse on this surface despite a much lower turf mark and for all he has been running well on turf of late he needs a strong pace and that is also not guaranteed here of a strong pace with only one confirmed front runner in I Confess and he is having his second start with new yard and chances are he may be ridden differently for a new yard. Therefore looking for horses ridden prominently could be the key to this race. Christmas Light travelled extremely well last time to suggest he was running back into form and although he had every chance in the end the softer ground is a possible excuse for not quite going on, but if building on that back on faster ground he looks potentially well treated running off the same mark again. Miss Blink is also worth considering, she is a consistent filly who won 2 handicaps over this trip in the spring, was then a little bit below form on softer ground before bouncing back to form on rattlling fast ground at Bath, she is better than the finishing position suggest having tripped about a furlong out and potentially lost momentum at vital stage can be given another chance despite another 2lb rise she looks a low class filly to follow on faster ground. 1pt win Miss Blink 7/1 lads 1pt win Christmas Light 8/1 lads 8.20 Leicester Bermondsey Bob is looking for the 3 timer here tonight but could easily be scuppered by career high mark, 3lb for last win and rather got the run of the race and was still all out and will have to take a big step forward to take this. Emiratesdotcom has been running to a similar level recently but again shaped as if a step up in trip was needed in behind Bermondsey Bob last time out when making a lot of late headway and not sure 6f on fast ground is the way forward with him for now. Volito finally got back to winning ways on penultimate start at goodwood over this trip ultimately given a peach of a ride by Hughes winning with plenty in hand it seemed before disappointing next time out off just a 5lb higher mark, that was in an appprentice race under an inexperienced apprentice and was rather weak in the market, also perhaps the good ground wasnt ideal and should appreciate this return to fast ground also the booking of Durcan is a strong booking despite im not the biggest of his at times, should get a decent pace to chase with Bermondsey Bob in the lineup and prior to disappointing last time out had been consistent so would be no surprise was he to bounce back! The other interesting runner has to be Mata Hari Blue, she has had plenty of excuses recently; never on terms back at southwell, 5f to sharp, had no chance with Psychics Dream who was an impressive winner, apprentice ride. Bounced back to something like her best last time out when only just going down to the well treated Istiqdaam. Tongue Tie is tried for the first time today and professional jockey booked for the first time in a while and although a 2lb rise in the weights makes things tougher she should also get the race run to suit. 1pt win Mata Hari Blue 9/2 vc 1pt win Volito 7/1 vc

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July 3.45 Goodwood - 1.5pts e/w Sadler's Risk @ 9/1 (Bet365) - BOG Mark Johnston targets and enjoys this festival, and I think he's going to have another big run with Sadler's Risk in the UBS Stakes today. This horse is a likeable type who enjoys running from the front, and has some pretty useful form relative to the handicap company he goes in today. He started his career over a mile at Haydock when the field was strung out badly on soft ground, and he finished a respectable 3rd to 2 very smart horses in Genius Beast and Purification. He then raced in the valuable Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy over 7f, a trip which seemingly didn't stretch his stamina enough as yet again he was staying on but not at the pace to challenge as he finished midfield having been outpaced. He's by Sadler's Wells and out of Riskaverse - no prizes for working out the name, but Sadler's Wells often produces horses with stamina, and Riskaverse was a 10f winner, so it was always likely that Sadler's Risk enjoyed a bit of a test. He got off the mark at the third attempt at Leicester - again on soft ground - beating a subsequently smart horse in Sea Moon, by a short head, but was hampered near the finish. He returned to the track this year for his first run of the year when proving he certainly enjoyed a trip, as he readily won a weakish handicap over 12f by 4l. A much more valuable prize was on offer at Newmarket on his next try, though this was over 10f and on quick ground - too factors against him. However, he travelled great from the front and looked a potential winner 2f out before being outpaced. He kept running though, despite having to ease up for a couple of strides as they approached the line. He looks a horse who enjoys softer conditions and more of a stamina test. He has a fairly high knee action, which grips the ground, so any solid efforts on quick ground would have to be very respected. One of those came on his last run, in the Chester Vase. A race typically not respected as much as other Derby trials, but this year proved to be a very good renewal. Sadler's Risk was only headed inside the final furlong, on unsuitable quick ground, and ended up a 3 3/4l 4th to Treasure Beach - who of course was narrowly deprived at Epsom before gaining compensation in Ireland. The second being Nathaniel - widely expected to have won the Derby now had he taken his chance. He won impressively at Royal Ascot and since won the King George. It was an excellent run despite any track bias in favour of front runners, and with ground conditions more favourable today - despite not being very soft - I expect a big run in a handicap.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July 2.10 Redcar - 4pts win Fenella Fudge @ 9/4 (Bet365) - BOG Daffydowndilly is obviously a big threat should she return in the form she was in last year, but she's had plenty of time off the track, and I think Fenella Fudge has had a bit of a hard time of it having failed to score in 9 attempts. She showed plenty of promise in her first two maidens, only going down by 1/2l and 3/4l respectively, before being well outclassed in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. She went even closer in a Warwick maiden next time out when beaten a short head by Mazagee. She didn't really go on from there, but still ran okay in the final two maidens of last year. Her return to the track held plenty of promise at Newcastle over a mile (I think she's better over 7f), but she was given a pretty poor ride in my opinion, only getting out when miles too late, finishing 5l behind Certral in 2nd. That horse has done well this season and was clearly well handicapped at the time. You can forget Fenella Fudge's effort over 10f after that, she simply didn't get home, but did hold every chance before her stamina gauge started to empty. And last time out she met a decent field in my eyes. Again over probably slightly too far in a mile contest at Haydock. The form has worked out. She finished a 6l 4th of 5 but the 2nd horse, Maggie Mey, ran well next time out. The 3rd, Imaginary World, likewise. I think Fenella Fudge can finally get her head in front with her sights well and truly dropped today. It's a very weak maiden and I think she can profit from that finally.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July Herostatus 2.00 Goodwood. 0.5 points each way. Not shown anything like his best form, but dropped in the weights as a result and a return to form today can see him go close. Massive odds with trip and ground to suit, so worth taking a risk he bounces back today. 33/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July ELKHART 2.35 Goodwood. 1 point win. Improvement required and I think he'll find enough. This track, trip and ground should suit and there's plenty of pace about the race to see him stay on strongly late on. Big price and massive chance I think. 12/1 Boylesports BOG

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Redcar 15:55
Selection	Christmas Light
Strength	2/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Betfred @ 10.00
Reasoning	3rd of 7 by 1 ½ lengths LTO at this course (1m) 10 days ago. The ground was Good to Soft. Will appreaciate this longer trip (1m2f) and quicker ground. She finished 2nd by 1 length three runs ago to Virtousity and Virtual’s brother Judicious who won at the C&D in his penultimate run by 2 ¾ lengths. She followed up with a 4th of 8 by 3 ¼ lengths at Doncaster (1m) being upped in Class from 5 to a 4. She was behind Mazamorra (cost $120,000), Gracefield (Godolphin) , and Submission (Group 3 entry next month). Her last three runs have been this month and today looks to be the easiest one yet.
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[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Redcar 17:05
Selection	Fairy Mist
Strength	2/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 7.00
Reasoning	Unraced £180,000 foal, £170,000 yearling for owner Derrick Smith and trainer A P O Brien. Did not see the course until this year for trainer Brian Rothwell with jockey Paddy Aspell having been on board all six races. His efforts have been improving all year and he’s a strong candidate to give Rothwell his first win the last 5 seasons. He’s gone winless in 97 runs the last 5 seasons with 5 able to finish 2nd. It is also owned by him and the last two years have been better than the previous 12. He had two 2nd’s last year from 8 runs on the flat. This year have 19 runs for 1 2nd, 2 3rds, and 4 4ths. He’s not raced on a straight course and that could make him run a big race. He’s shown to have a strong finish and this course should help that with it not having any turns.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Goodwood 15:10
Selection	Frankel
Strength	8/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 1.80
Reasoning	Unbeaten in 7 career starts inlcuding three Group 1's (Dewhurst, 2000 Guineas, and St James Palace). He goes for a third consecutive Group 1 today. He's the only 3yo in the field and gets a hefty 3yo allowance. The small field should not be a problem and he can make all if that's what it needs. He proved that in the 2000 Guineas when he made all to win by 6 lengths. 3yo's have won the last three renewals and all were favorites by the name of Henrythenavigator, Rip Van Winkle, and Canford Cliffs. Canford Cliffs defeated the defending champion Rip Van Winkle last year. I think Frankel will do the same to last years defending champion today.

1ST by 5 lengths Made all the running :clap :nana

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sandown Park 17:50
Selection	Bold Cross (Each-way)
Strength	1/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 13.00
Reasoning	Apprentice race with jockey Matthew Cosham having been on board the last two runs of the selection. They finished 3rd of 8 at Warwick (1m) and 2nd of 7 at Haydock (1m). The penultimate run was beaten by 2 lengths from Qeethaara. LTO had Qeethaara behind him by a head. With that, I think the selection is improving for Cosham. The selection have done well all year having raced 7 times winning once and being placed three times. Raced at 1m 4 times this year that is where he's been more effective having finished, 1st, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Redcar 15:55
Selection	Christmas Light
Strength	2/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Betfred @ 10.00
Reasoning	3rd of 7 by 1 ½ lengths LTO at this course (1m) 10 days ago. The ground was Good to Soft. Will appreaciate this longer trip (1m2f) and quicker ground. She finished 2nd by 1 length three runs ago to Virtousity and Virtual’s brother Judicious who won at the C&D in his penultimate run by 2 ¾ lengths. She followed up with a 4th of 8 by 3 ¼ lengths at Doncaster (1m) being upped in Class from 5 to a 4. She was behind Mazamorra (cost $120,000), Gracefield (Godolphin) , and Submission (Group 3 entry next month). Her last three runs have been this month and today looks to be the easiest one yet.
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1ST by 1 3/4 lengths :nana

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July 7.30 Sandown - 3pts win Electra Star @ 9/2 (Bet365) - BOG God forbid - another confident selection! :eek Anyway, Electra Star was unfortunate not to get off the mark until the fifth attempt after some excellent efforts in maidens. Ran solid races in two decent maidens last summer at Newbury and Goodwood before a break until October - when she went to Wolverhampton. Unfortunately for her, she met the talented Rumh, of Godolphin, and went down 6l in 2nd. There was 7l back to the third so it was a very respectable effort. She had another break until running at Salisbury this June on soft ground. Entitled to need the run, she was again beaten 6l - this time by Making Eyes. A horse who went on to win again at Kempton next time out. Deservedly, Electra Star found her race at Windsor last time out when staying on well under pressure to lead and draw clear inside the final furlong. Despite being under pressure for a little while, Fallon never got extremely serious with her and I think she can go on to better things now. The form of that win looks solid enough with the 2nd running okay since, the 3rd winning by 4l on her next outing, and the 4th only going down 1/4l next time. She's off a mark of 77 today but Adam Beschizza takes off 3lbs so she looks nicely handicapped and can improve now in this sphere. It's fairly competitive, but I'm happy with her mark and her form, and I expect a big run.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Leicester 20:20
Selection	Earlsmedic (Each-way)
Strength	1/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Totesport @ 9.00
Reasoning	Proven winner on a straigth course by doing so at Hamilton (6f) and twice at Newmarket (6f) in 2008 then at Yarmouth (6f) in 2009. Began the year with an 8th placed finish at Kempton (5f) and Southwell (6f) in Class 4 Handicaps. Penultimate run was in a Class 3 at Thirsk (6f) where he finished last of 16 runners by 15 lengths - last of 8th in the stands side group. He improved LTO at Folkestone (6f) in a Class 4 0-85 Handicap. Finished 6th of 7 by 5 lengths that day. He raced in midfiled LTO then tried to chase the leaders rated 84 and 74 from 2f out but that was too much and he weakened the final furlong. Now dropped into a 0-70 Handicap. His last visit to a race like this resulted in a win at Ffos Las last September. His Class 5 record excluding the ones before winning his maiden is 1st, 3rd, and 1st.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sandown Park 20:35
Selection	Mungo Park
Strength	2/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 3.25
Reasoning	150,000gns yearling making his fifth career start. Had a very good win in a Hamilton (1m3f) maiden 13 days ago. He won by a head and was tough at the finish going against Listed and Group 2 tested Sunday Bess who attempted to make all the running. The maiden consisted of expensive purchases with the 2nd horse costing connections JPY33,000,000as a foal or about 201,300 euros in 2007. 3rd cost 120,000gns as a foal, 4th cost 280,000gns. 5th cost 65,000gns as a yearling with the last two runners well beaten not costing as much. Trainer Mark Johnston have done well when stepping his horse further than 1m3f this year - 3yo's have 4 wins from 14 (29%). He is 3 from 7 (43%) for owner Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum at that trip. Jockey booked is Silvestre De Sousa and he's ridden 5 wins from 10 from 1m3f or further this year. I think the connections have the selection ready to win his handicap debut.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Leicester 20:50
Selection	Bountiful Guest (Each-way)
Strength	1/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 29.00
Reasoning	Finished last in his first two runs on turf (last two runs) in fields of 9 and 12. I think the softer ground was the cause of that and worth a shot with the Good to Firm tonight. He won once and place twice more in four tries on the All-Weather at Lingfield and Wolvehampton. Trainer Brian Baugh's runners have been going well with 1 win and 5 placed from his last 10 (2237105322). He bookes Robert Winstons who's also been in good form. Winston have ridden 4 wins from his last 5 rides and he has two more rides before this one plus he's ridde two winners at the meeting already.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Leicester 20:50
Selection	Marie Rose
Strength	2/10
Date	27/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 5.00
Reasoning	Gone well in two runs this month. 3rd of 12 in penultimate run at Windsor (1m). 5th of 12 11 days ago at Haydock (1m) with the 3rd horse 2 3/4 ahead winning by 2 lengths in a Class 4 Handicap at York 6 days later. It a competitive race last time with the trainers ahead of her coming from Richard Fahey, Dandy Nicholls, David O'Meara, and Richard Hannon. She is bred to improve being sired by Sadler's Wells and a Grade 2 winnning dam by Danehill. Trainer B J Meehan is in good form and this is his last runner of the day. He had just one more today and that was able to win at Sandown. They have never tried her at 1m until the last two and she's done better than ever. They keep her at 1m tonight and should improve.

[Cowan]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July Leicester 8.50 Alluring Star has won 2/7 races in its career. Likes to lead which is no bad thing against such hopeless opposition, and has run good times this season. Its poor performance in last race can be ignored due it being hampered. Crown Ridge has won/placed 9/20 races and is one of a few that are proven at this level or higher. Phoenix Flame has never won or placed in a race but seems to be getting closer. Maybe tonight is the night.

[Striker]

Re: Flat racing Weds 27th July

Good Luck 5.30 Goodwood-Valencha 1pt ew @ 8-1 [bet365] Interesting now she steps up to a trip that gives indication will suit on a track already won on

Placed,4th Profit,1pt