Flat Racing 23rd July

[fintron]

3.20 Newmarket Murbeh - 12/1 - contested a very tough 3 yo handicap here at the July meeting and finished not far off the winner, Coeus, when third. Track known to suit and there looks to be more improvement in the locker with only a handful of career starts to his name. 3.40 York Midnight Martini - 20/1 - Tadgh O'Shea rides for Tim Easterby. They paired up with Lost In Paris who won a nice little race at Musselburgh earlier in the year. Midnight Martini was fifth to Hoof It here earlier in the season and only beaten by two lengths. Could go well at a price. 3.50 Ascot Striking Spirit - 10/1 - ran an eyecatching race in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, faring best of those drawn on the far side as the 1-2 came from on the other side of the track. Was never placed to challenge when given terrible ride by Seb Sanders in Bunbury Cup and back at Ascot, drawn on the other side of the track today, better is expected. 4.30 Ascot Nathaniel - 15/2 - he needs to prove himself in top class company here but connections have shelled out £75k in order for him to take place in this event and it was hard not to be impressed with his C&D win in the King Edward Stakes at Royal Ascot. He's gonna have to be really useful to mow down an Arc Winner and the likes of Rewilding and St Nicholas Abbey, both of whom are G1 winners, but he's the value in the race at this price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July 3.15 Ascot - 1.5pts e/w Aerial Acclaim @ 7/1 (Bet365) - BOG Really competitive mile handicap, but I feel that Clive Cox's Aerial Acclaim may well get his moment in the limelight with victory today. He's never actually won a race, the only runner in the field not to do so, but it will only be a matter of time, and I don't think he'll have to wait any longer than this afternoon. He's only had 4 runs to date, 2 coming as a 2yo last year, and two further runs this season. He looked a little bit green last year, despite showing evident promise when running in competitive races behind smart horses Pausanias and Moriarty. It was always likely he'd make a better 3yo, and was sent off at 6/4 at Chepstow on his third start, but found one horse 2l too strong. That horse reopposes today, in the shape of Stage Attraction. Aerial Acclaim had every chance until the death of the race, and considering Andrew Balding's charge had the fitness edge on the day, I'm very content that Aerial Acclaim can reverse that form with a 7lb swing in the weights. Last time out, Aerial Acclaim was slowly away at Sandown, but benefited from a tearaway leader to really finish well. He stayed on powerfully up the rail to be a very fast-finishing 3rd, 1 1/4l behind Chilled, the winner. He shaped as if the return to a mile would suit, and with a level break, may well have won the race. Today's race is over a mile, and I feel he can run them down. Albaasil is clearly a smart improver for powerful connections, but he's gone up another 10lbs, and I'm not convinced he'll be able to defy his new mark at the moment. I'm always a bit wary of collateral form, but he beat a horse last time by 3l who previously was further than that behind Aerial Acclaim at Sandown, and prior to that, was 1 1/2l too strong for Burj Hatta - a horse who was beaten 5l by Aerial Acclaim in Cox's first run of the season. There are obviously other threats in the race, but Aerial Acclaim has a light weight to carry, and I think he's one that they'll all have trouble beating.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July 3.20 Newmarket - 2pts e/w Seal Rock @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) Henry Candy's yard could be going better, but I'm very confident he's got a nice horse in Seal Rock, and I think he's going to be bang there come the finish today. I don't think this is the best 0-105 sprint handicap ever, and Seal Rock is certainly one of the more unexposed horses in the field, having only had four runs to date - all of which have been good. He readily got off the mark at the first time of asking when winning by 1 1/4l at Doncaster last November from Anoint in 2nd. That horse franked the form by winning next time out, and putting in a solid 2nd to Sinfonico on his most recent start. Seal Rock found a mark of 85 very workable when winning very nicely on his 2nd start, after a break of around 5 months, in a competitive 0-100 Grade 2 handicap, scoring by just under 2l from Coeus in 2nd. That horse won a big handicap at the July meeting last time out and is now rated 95. Seal Rock was regarded as a possible group horse after this run, and even though it may be a little optimistic, he certainly has shown plenty of promise. Despite his 3rd win, at Newmarket, not looking quite so visually impressive, he got on top from El Viento for a 3/4l victory. The pair were nearly 4l clear from a horse who has won since, and El Viento himself has proved he's a decent horse by going well in decent races since - so it wasn't quite as weaker race (relatively speaking) as suggested at the time. Seal Rock's mark went up again to 96 when he contested a big handicap at York, won by Lexi's Hero, who seemingly had the 'golden highway' up the stands side rail. However, Henry Candy's unbeaten gelding proved that he was still improving with a very solid run indeed. Drawn on the opposite side to the winner, Seal Rock had to contend with racing on the far side of the field, possibly not the ideal place to be, but kept on well to be in contention just about throughout, until the latter stages. As the line loomed, he was short of room and ended up being eased off by Fergus Sweeney, exaggerating the 3 1/4l losing margin, which probably would have been more like 1 1/2l or 2l. He wasn't quite going the pace to challenge, but would have been right in the blanket for the placings, a very sound run given his track position. The other horses who did well from low draws are clearly useful, with Acclamazing proving very progressive, despite not running since, and Majestic Miles, who won a listed event at Chester last time. It proved the form of the runners on that part of the track is solid, and gives further hope to Seal Rock's chances today. Seal Rock runs off the same mark today (96), and I fail to see a poor run, so a price of 8/1 looks very tasty to me, even in a field such as this. He looks fairly straightforward and genuine, who stays the 6f well but also has plenty of pace. I don't think this race is as strong, and has a favourite's chance for me. I know he's a market leader, but at 8/1 that doesn't really make a difference in my eyes - he's still a good price. I'm confident he'll run a big race, and therefore is a pretty big e/w bet for me.

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July Ascot 1.30 21 horse Handicap. Most are unproven at class 3. I have looked for horses that will improve. I have eliminated horses drawn in the worst stalls (5-8). Lightning Cloud (5/1) has a record of 3/7 and has shown improvement this season. Can win at class 3 and maybe higher. Don't Call Me (9/1) went on an impressive hattrick last season and can win more races this season. Has had one run this season which will have removed the cobwebs. April Fool (20/1) is an exposed type who is raced heavily in the lower levels. However recently has been winning most races it enters so something has changed. Maybe it will finally be able to make a step-up in class. Suffolk Punch (14/1) is exposed and has a poor record. However the recent addition of a Visor has transformed performances which is hopefully enough for it to record the second win of its career. Newmarket 2.15 Competitive class 3 contest with all horses being at least capable. My selections are based on speed figures, having eliminated the dodgy/seconditis competitors first. Albaqa (N/R) has steadily improved this season and won last time out. Looks to be in peak condition. Club Oceanic (13/2) is lightly raced and has a great record. Definately one which will improve and has Jamie Spencer onboard. Classic Punch (6/1) has looked poor this season but is tried and tested at this level and can pull a win from nowhere if the others flounder. York 2.30 Horses are a mixed bag of lightly raced 3yo, exposed types, out-of-form types, horses on wrong surface. Creme Anglaise (8/1) record is 1/3. Was raced too high in class 1 lto. Back to the correct level and has plenty of speed. Tenby Lady (4/1) looks the worst performer at a glance but the speed figure is huge and with Silvestre De Sousa onboard Sir Mark Prescott has faith in this one. Antigua Sunrise (12/1) is a dull performer with a few wins. But looks in better shape than the others with an ability to win from nothing. Can trot home if the first two fail. Newmarket 2.45 Valuable class 2 race with alot of good winning horses. Difficult to find a winner. Instance (7/4) has a record of 3/4 and is a course/distance/class winner. Golden Delicious (6/1) won a similar race last time out on his 5th ever start, with a very good time. Conditions look the same this time. Ishbelle (7/1) was fast in its debut season last year and picked up a couple of wins. Has had one race this season finishing third in an even quicker time so the cobwebs are well and truely off. Should improve further. York 3.05 56k race with some world-class horses. The ground will be Good-Soft/Soft so I'm looking for a soft ground specialist. Dominant (10/3) won last time out over the same distance and ground with a very good time. Saptapadi (16/1) has a poor record of 1/8 but its best performance was on soft ground with a time close to Dominants. Looks value at the price.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July SPA'S DANCER 2.15 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Consistent runner who goes up quite a bit in trip today. I think he'll stay & with being dropped 1 pound to a mark of 77 & knowing he acts with a bit of cut, he has every chance today. Open to improve for the trip & if Dazzler can get the fractions right, then he could well go in at a nice price. Very interesting runner today. 22/1 Boylesports BOG __________________

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July Avonmore Star 3.20 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Seems to be lacking that little bit extra needed at the end of a race, but been dropped a few pounds for today and does go with a bit of cut in the ground. Will surely put it all end sooner or later and if he does today, then he can go very close. 28/1 Bet365 (bog)

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July

3.50 Ascot In what appears an incredibly tough handicap on paper to weigh up with many holding chances on some lines of form ; I can't help but feel that it's worth taking a chance for a value Each Way punt on Ruth Carr's Al Muheer @33/1 who looks frighteningly well handicapped on his form back in the days with Clive Brittain. He actually took this race two years ago from a mark of 99 and runs here off a rating of 77. Despite being four pounds wrong in the handicap he makes some appeal as he showed signs of a return to some sort of form last time when beaten only a length a Wolverhampton when 5th of 6 to Karate - he was well supported that day and personally I think he saw daylight too soon and did fairly well to finish as close. Al Muheer is best held up as late as possible and this big field should be ideal . This will be only his 5th start for Ruth Carr who's stable has been in fair shape the last few weeks and one could expect some improvemnt from her inmate as she gets to know him better. He is not a straightforward ride as I have pointed out but realistically I think the odds far outweigh his actual chance in the race. Selection : Al Muheer ...... 3 Points Each Way @33/1 ( BOG ) VC or Ladbrokes 33/1

im sure ive seen this before somewhere:unsure

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July 4:30 Ascot: Nathaniel 1pt win 7/1 Bet365 Nathaniel could well be overpriced. He lines up here having been suplemented for £75,000, so one thing for certain he is 100% straight for this. In recent years, three year olds have not had a good record in this race, however Nathaniel's form looks rock solid, and the weight for age allowance puts him very close to top rating. Last time out Nathaniel put up a fine performance over course and distance at the Royal meeting and its possible this race could pan out the same way. Debussy could take the field along for the first mile or so, and then William Buick could kick on to bring Nathaniel's stamina in to play, and he could take some catching. In his previous race Nathaniel ran the subsequent Irish Derby winner and Epson second Treasure Beach to a neck in a rather slowly run affair that may not have suited him. And going right back to Nathaniel's first run he was just half a length behind Frankel, while probably unwise to read too much in to that, it was still a good run. The other big three will all have their supporters and with good reason, yet can't help but think the best value lies with Nathaniel. 2:40 Ascot: Angels Will Fall 1pt win 7/1 Bet365 There is not much evidence to go on, but Angels Will Fall is worth close inspection after her impressive win at Windsor, even allowing for meeting some trouble in running. Its interesting that Barry Hills steps her up to Group company rather than finding perhaps a conditions or Listed race. He is not a man to overface his horses. There could be a fair bit of potential to be unleashed, and there will need to be with both Russelliana and Regal Realm having better form in the book, however at the prices Angels Will Fall looks worth an interest. 3:15 Ascot: Stage Attraction 1pt win 8/1 Victor Chandler Stage Attraction lines up here on a hat trick and after a fine win at Sandown last time out, that could be on the cards. The form oif that race looks solid, as the second Galiando won previously, the third Dukes Art was a runner up, and the fifth Moheebb also won comfortably at Carlisle. This race is a step up in class for Stage Attraction, however after a smooth performance last time he could well be up to it. 2:45 Newmarket: Wake Up Call 1pt win 10/1 Boylesports & Golden Delicious 1pt win 13/2 William Hill It may be worth taking on the favourite here and a couple look to have decent chances. Wake Up Call warmed up nicely for this with a pipeopener last month. She has a fine record at Yarmouth, however Wake Up Call only went down by under a length on the Rowley Mile last year in a Listed race which has a very similar configuration to today's neighbouring July course. Trainer Chris Wall has a twenty five per cent strike rate with his older horses here, and he teams up with George Baker who rides this course well too. Golden Delicious creeps in at the bottom of the weights, she put up an excellent perfomance to come from a difficult position to win at Ascot earlier in the month. There were several with decent form to their name in behind her and with Hughie Morrison having his string in good nick, she looks likely to run well. And she will certainly not lack assistance from the saddle with the impressive Kieran O'Neill keeping the ride. He has been in cracking form over the past couple of weeks. 3:20 Newmarket: Sadafiya 1pt win 25/1 & Invincible Ridge 1pt win 16/1 both Bet365 With a big field again it seems reasonable to go with a couple. Sadafiya is lightly raced, even more so on turf. However, that means the handicapper has less to go on. Her last run in a Listed race at Warwick does not give much hope, but last back-end she shaped pretty well behind Style and Panache at Newbury, just getting the hang of things late on over five furlongs. At six here and a little ease in the ground she could be a different proposition. Also good to see that Sadafiya's sire, Oasis Dream won the July Cup here, maybe his daughter will have a similar liking for the track. Invincible Ridge could be coming to hand, his run at York over a furlong further was very promising, running well for a long way. Previously highly thought of by the Hannon yard, he could be competitive with Kieran O'Neill taking off a handy five pounds. That effectively puts him off 89 here and Invincible Ridge won well at Newbury in September last year off 85. Both have a squeek in a big field.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July Newmarket 16:25 Taking on the current favorite Anoint with two runners. CAPAILL LIATH (7-1, Bluesq) to win for 2pts. Making his third start for Michael Bell here after leaving the Barry Hills yard whom he raced for last year. The two runs this year is improving with the first outing for 16th of 29 runners by 9 lengths at Ascot in the Britannia Stakes. Last time out was for 5th of 19 by 3 1/2 lengths, 3rd of 12 in his group. He faced tougher oppositions LTO with the 50-1 winner, Bin Suroor/Dettori's My Freedom in 2nd, Stoute's 300,000gns gelding Markazzi in 3rd, and Richard Fahey's Arabian Spirit in 4th. DANEHILL DANTE is a solid each-way pick at 12-1 with Stan James. Trained by Richard Hannon and jockey Pat Dobbs is booked once again just like his last two runs. Those two runs have been at this course over 1m and 7f. It was a maiden race but he's capable of being competitive here. A £150,000 yearling with 4 placed efforts from 5 career starts (32022). His latest was a 2nd to the filly Lay Time who is entered for a Oak Tree Stakes (G3) later this month and the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes in September. The selection is a front runner and could do better now facing more exposed rivals. Selections CAPAILL LIATH : 2pts win @ 7-1 Blue Square DANEHILL DANTE : 1pt ew @ 12-1 with Stan James

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July Sportinglife and Racingpost are taking so long to load for me...:eyes hopefully the traffic will slow down for the night races at Salisbury and Lingfield ..

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July Ascot 17:40 PARLOUR GAMES stays the trip and finished well in a 1m2f contest last time out at Sandown. He was unable to challenge the leaders but it was very promising. Penultimate run was at Newmarket in May and it was his first try at 1m4f, same trip today. He finished 3rd of 5 by 4 3/4 lengths. It would have been closer but he was eased the final 75 yards when his chances of winning was gone. He acts on acts on polytrack, good to firm and good to soft going so the ground today is no problem. His last run on Good to Soft would be his last run in 2010 for his maiden win at Newcastle (1m) beating 2nd by 1 1/2 lengths. Frankie Dettori is booked for the first time. That might even make him improve even more. I think the selection can win a better race than a Handicap. He is sired y Monsun and his dam Petrushka was a top-class multiple 7f-1m4f winner at 2-3, won Irish Oaks and had a Group 1 hat-trick. 1pt win @ 5-1 Boylesports

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July

Newmarket 16:25 Taking on the current favorite Anoint with two runners. CAPAILL LIATH (7-1, Bluesq) to win for 2pts. Making his third start for Michael Bell here after leaving the Barry Hills yard whom he raced for last year. The two runs this year is improving with the first outing for 16th of 29 runners by 9 lengths at Ascot in the Britannia Stakes. Last time out was for 5th of 19 by 3 1/2 lengths, 3rd of 12 in his group. He faced tougher oppositions LTO with the 50-1 winner, Bin Suroor/Dettori's My Freedom in 2nd, Stoute's 300,000gns gelding Markazzi in 3rd, and Richard Fahey's Arabian Spirit in 4th. DANEHILL DANTE is a solid each-way pick at 12-1 with Stan James. Trained by Richard Hannon and jockey Pat Dobbs is booked once again just like his last two runs. Those two runs have been at this course over 1m and 7f. It was a maiden race but he's capable of being competitive here. A £150,000 yearling with 4 placed efforts from 5 career starts (32022). His latest was a 2nd to the filly Lay Time who is entered for a Oak Tree Stakes (G3) later this month and the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes in September. The selection is a front runner and could do better now facing more exposed rivals. Selections CAPAILL LIATH : 2pts win @ 7-1 Blue Square DANEHILL DANTE : 1pt ew @ 12-1 with Stan James

CAPAILL LIATH 1ST by a head (Stewards Inquiry - Result Stands) :nana

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Lingfield Park 19:55
Selection	My Ruby (Each-way)
Strength	1/10
Date	23/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 17.00
Reasoning	Finished 14th of 14 LTO but that is worth to forgive. It was for 1m and at Windsor. She made her debut (5f) at that track where she finished 9th of 15 by 15 lengths, betean 30 lengths LTO. Her other two career runs was at Chester (7f) for a 6th of 12 by 7 1/4 lengths (Towards rear, ridden over 1f out, headway inside final furlong, not pace to get to leaders). That was followed with a Goodwood (7f) run for 6th of 13 by 4 lengths (Took keen hold, held up disputing 6th, lost place and dropped in rear over 2f out, shaken up and stayed on again from over 1f out). The drop back to 7f today should get her to improve. Paul Doe is booked and he does well for the owner of the selection. He's ridden 11 winners from 67 rides for M&R Refurbishments Ltd and that is most wins and rides by any jockey for them. The horse also cost 40,000euros, resold 90,000euros. She is the first foal of a 7f-1m winner in France (at 2) and US, inc US 1m Listed event. Her run LTO may just have helped keep her rating lower than what she is capable of doing.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Lingfield Park 20:25
Selection	My Sister (Each-way)
Strength	1/10
Date	23/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 23.00
Reasoning	Not raced in 180 days but yard in form so she should be fit to go now. Trainer Mark Usher has a 2 wins from his last 11 runners with the last four finishing 1st, 8th, 3rd, and 3rd. The ground is on the soft side and that is where the selection have shown her better efforts to go along with this trip. 6th of 14 by 6 lengths at Windsor (1m) on good to soft in 2009. 4th of 12 at Nottingham (1m2f) by 1 3/4 lengths on Good to Soft last June. 2nd of 10 by 1/4 length at Chepstow (1m) last August. 5th of 12 by 5 lengths on Soft at Windsor last August. 3rd of 6 by 8 lengths at Wolv's with the track on the slow side. She is maiden after 16 races but conditions here will suit to her and could make it 17 time lucky. Jockey Pat Dobbs is booked and he's ridden her once - they finished 2nd of 9 by 1 1/4 lengths to Sooraah. She will do well if Dobbs is able to get that form for this race.