Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.30 Ascot - 2pts win Macs Power @ 11/2 (Bet365) - BOG Yet another competitive handicap, this time over 6f, and Macs Power comes into this in great form, and should take the beating. James Fanshawe's gelding had a prolific year in 2010, winning two handicaps at Kempton and Doncaster before a sound effort at the latter track in a listed event. He started off in cracking form this year when only just failing to get to Novellen Lad, after finishing fast at Newbury. He's versatile when it comes to ground conditions, as he proved when running a belter under the circumstances in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. Macs Power was unfortunately drawn on the wrong side, and did all he could to finish 1st of 9 in the stands side group. All the action was on the far side, however, so he could never challenge in a 7 1/4l 8th. He was 2l clear of the next best horse on the near side, so he win his little race quite nicely, and would have gone close if racing on the favoured far side. He runs off the same mark today and it's hard to see why he could run poorly. He's drawn high again, but hopefully it would inconvenience him this time! He's run well on his last 7 starts, and James Fanshawe's horses are going well - 20% strike rate in June and 22% so far in July. These races are obviously very competitive, and it would be foolish to pile in, with horses such as Dungannon and Ritual in the mix. The latter looks a nice progressive sprinter especially, but has to prove he's good enough for this level. Horses can always bounce back to form in these events also, but everything points to another sound effort from Macs Power. 3.15 York - 0.5pts e/w Kings Gambit @ 33/1 (BlueSQ) Very tricky 10f heritage handicap, but Kings Gambit to me looks well overpriced with conditions back in his favour today. Tom Tate's gelding is admirably consistent and tough, which is why he boasts a fine strike rate of 6-25 with 6 seconds and 2 thirds also. Last year, he was short-headed in this race by Wigmore Hall. Since then, he was only just worn down by Rio De La Plata and Rainbow Peak over a furlong shorter at York to be beaten by a length. Rainbow Peak won an Italian Group 1 afterwards and Rio De La Plata is widely regarded as a solid Group horse. Kings Gambit was then narrowly beaten twice again, by Vesuve at Ayr, and Waseet back at York. This season, he was again narrowly denied, this time at Ripon by St Moritz, on his seasonal reappearance. David Nicholls' gelding has been progressive, having won a big York handicap since, and going very close in a Group 3 at Epsom. Unfortunately Kings Gambit just keeps getting collared by nice horses. He battled on very bravely to deservedly get his head in front from Black Spirit in a Group 3 at Sandown in April, before disappointing in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot. The ground was soft and the trip was a mile-and-a-half, which probably didn't suit, and he can be excused when beaten by the very exciting Await The Dawn. I think he's capable of bouncing back in this easier company, even if it does mean he has a large weight to carry around the Knavesmire. The useful Dale Swift takes off a valuable 5lbs to ease the burden, and I think he can run very bravely at a big price. He clearly likes the track at York, with form figures of 35232, and I think he'll battle on well from a prominent position. Despite the big field, there seems plenty of hold-up performers, so he shouldn't get an absolute mad dash to contend with. I just think he's a big price. You should get a run for your money, and he's a likeable horse who can gallop into the frame. Who knows, he might just hold on! 3.35 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Bated Breath @ 8/1 (Bet365) - BOG Roger Charlton has had a good time of it lately, recording 5 winners and 4 places from his last 16 runners - all in the last fortnight. He only had 5 winners in June, and 4 of those came after the 25th, so he's clearly hitting form at the right time for this. Bated Breath made rapid strides as a 3yo last year, winning each of his first three starts - culminating in a ready 3l win in a decent handicap at Haydock. He possibly found the softer conditions against him when 3rd of 10 behind Dafeef and Deacon Blues on the July course last August - although he was only beaten 3/4l in total having been sent off the 9/4 favourite. Both of the horses who beat him that day are useful, and the latter won the Wokingham this year at Royal Ascot. It was a similar story when Bated Breath went to Doncaster for a listed race - sent off at 7/4 but could only stay on steadily to finish a well-held 4th. Charlton only managed 3-29 in August, however, his worst strike rate of the season, so trainer form may have contributed to him disappointing. Bated Breath was hampered back at Doncaster and never got in the race when 10th of 14 on his return this year, but showed he still was very useful when getting the better of Society Rock at Haydock in May. He readily brushed aside his field at Windsor - with decent horses in behind with Triple Aspect, Libranno, Monsieur Chevalier, and Horseradish chasing him home. Libranno won a Group 3 since, and Monsieur Chevalier ran a blinder to be 2nd in the Golden Jubilee - with Society Rock, who Bated Breath also beat this season, winning the Group 1 event at Ascot. Bated Breath did run in the same race, and ran a creditable 5th of 16 - beaten 2 1/4l. He stayed on, but the ground was deemed soft that day, and Bated Breath's best runs have come seemingly on quicker ground. Whilst it could have some cut in it today, it's unlikely to be as soft as it was at Ascot, so I expect an improved performance. He's beaten proven Group horses this season already, and with ground to suit, the trainer in good form, and a draw in the middle, I think he's set to run a big race.

[cc75]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 9th July 1.55 Ascot: Tartan Trip 1pt win @ 9/1 Will Hill BOG Has been knocking on door this year from around this mark before disappointing LTO. That run however was over a furlong further so return to a mile can be viewed as a positive. Also, David Probert, who gets on well with the horse, is back on board after missing LTO ride. Blinkers on today may well help and think this horse could win from this mark back down in grade. 9/1 looks a fair price IMO.