BBOTD - Tuesday 5th July

[fintron]

2.30 Pontefract Aquasulis - makes her handicap debut today, as do all, in the first nursery of the season. Has been handed a mark of just 62 and, IMO, has been running like a horse that could defy a mark in the high 60's on early 70's. Form of her conditions second to Betty Fontaine last time at Windsor is one of the strongest pieces in the race, she gets this longer trip, Cathy Gannon is on, and she has a low-ish draw. 1 pt win

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD - Tuesday 5th July Dark Promise 4.00 Pontefract - 11/4 Boylesports Officially rated 5lb inferior to last years winner, Off Chance but more progressive and has won its last 3 races. It has won over 10f and races prominently and that could be the key to the race. Last year Off Chance was held up and came through to win but I would expect Callan to have already flown for home tomorrow and this horse stays 10f so the stiff, uphill finish should be fine and it is a course winner too (over 10f). Callan and Varian are both in fine form but so is Tim Easterby. Favourites have an excellent record in this race and Dark Promise could end up better than todays rating. Off Chance was rated 89 last year but has done nothing much off its new 100 rating and has been off track for 54 days. Folly Bridge is rated 99 but has to prove it stays 1m. Fontley is 15lb above its last winning mark and that was at class 4 level. Law Of The Range is the biggest danger to the first 2 in the betting but steps up from handicap company. I expect Callan to track the leader, kick for home round the turn and not get caught by those in behind. Only slight concern would be if the ground is too firm. Some bookies only go 2-1, the 11-4 looks standout and I can see this going off about 13-8 tomorrow.