Flat Racing: 13th Jun 2011

[RussP]

3.15 Carlisle 7f, Class 4 handicap with 12 left in. Open race, going 4/1 the field and half of them in single figures in the betting. Quite a few question marks over those so I'm on one at bigger odds. Bay Of Fires (12/1 Paddy Power BOG) - I think this one is a few points too big, in fact it would be no surprise to see it go off half these odds. Hails from a yard in really good form and is ridden by a top jockey. This combo has to be feared and the fact it's the only runner for the stable at Carlisle is a positive sign. Has enough form to suggest it will be good enough in this field having run in the Albany as a 2yo, this race is back in Class 4 company. What interests me, apart from what I've mentioned above, is that this is a stiff track and the ground is expected to be riding soft. Our horse has form on soft, in fact it's best speed figure has been recorded on such going, and it stays a stiff 7f. Those factors are something that cannot be said about many of her rivals. Goes really well for this jockey with both of her career wins coming when ridden by todays pilot. Her best win, on soft, was at the tail of last term and came off 2lb higher than today. Reappeared a couple of weeks over a mile at Newcastle off that 2lb higher mark and, 1.5f out, was in with every chance but folded tamely. Saying that, I was disappointed with how the jockey rode her that day. Dictated a sedate pace and was still travelled well 2f out when plenty were hard at work but just didn't have the pace to make it count. I think this one is more of a galloper so ridden prominently on the back of a fast pace is ideal, conditions she should get here. Her very persuasive jockey will ride her out to the line and, at this stiff track, I'd be surprised if that wasn't enough. Odds too big to ignore so I'll take the bet at 12's.

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing: 13th Jun 2011 8.10 Warwick A 14 runner, Class 4 handicap over the sharp 7f. Another very open race with no stand out contender and with question marks over the leading fancies so, again, I'll take a chance with a big priced one that has unquestionable ability. Masai Moon (14/1 William Hill BOG) - Top weight here without a win since 2008 but retains plenty of ability and has a definite chance here. This horse is without doubt at his best over this trip and is now dropped in grade and mark, so looks handicapped to win. Since his last win 3 years ago off a mark off 87, he's only raced at marks in the 80's on turf 7 times, showing some very good form amongst those runs. It's plain that this horse doesn't stay 8f and 2 of those 7 runs were over a mile, including lto. Of the other 5, his form reads 3-3-2-7-4, all of them coming in higher grades than this and the disappointing 7th was in a Class 2 over a stiff 7f, off 3lb higher. Since returning to action this term, he's raced 3 times. First time up, he was 2nd on the sand at Southwell off this mark, before running a very nice race at HQ when 4th of 10 off 2lb and 1 grade higher. I'm more than happy to ignore his last run where 8f, the stiff Sandown finish and soft ground were all against him. Stable is in excellent nick at present with 5 winners & 3 placed from 13 runners this month. 14/1 is way too big for me and I really think this one will love the fast pace and should go very close indeed.