Flat Racing: 8th Jun 2011

[RussP]

4.20 Haydock This looks a cracking Class 4 handicap over 1m. 11 go to post and, looking through the field, there's quite a few I'm happy to bypass. I'm taking one of the fancied ones, albeit at an early EW price. Sir George (7/1 William Hill BOG) - Looks to hold leading claims here. Drawn well in a low box, 4, and today he races off an attractive mark. He's a really consistent type, having been in the first 2 in 14 of his 27 career starts, including 6 wins. Last win was in August last year off 1lb lower but has not really shone since but I'm convinced his mark was too high. Started this season off 87 and ran a promising race in the Spring Mile behind Eton Forever and Dance & Dance. Then he took in a hot Class 3 event at Ripon, finished midfield off that same mark. Was then dropped 2lb for a close up 3rd at Thirsk over this trip when holding every chance inside the distance, that race back in this grade for this first time in 7 runs. I can easily ignore his last run when badly hampered 4f out on the bend at Catterick before staying on well but finding 7f too short. For this run, he's been dropped another 2lb now making him well handicapped and has plenty of other factors in his favour. Is a resolute galloper so this galloping track will suit (1 from 1 here), certainly better than the sharp tracks he's been on lately. Stable is going well too and regular jockey now replaced by a top jockey, a sure sign the horse is ready to strike. Turf record in handicaps this grade & below reads 1 win/6 places from 7 runs as opposed to 1 win/1 placed for 7 runs in higher grades. All in all, I feel a big run is on the cards and am happy to take the early 7's available.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing: 8th Jun 2011 15:20 Haydock The drop in trip should suit the strong travelling Tominator, who was a bit unlucky last time when racing over further but did shape that this trip would be of benefit, and I don’t feel he’s too high in the weights, even though he is racing off a rating of 90. Reg Hollinshead’s 4yo has done a fair bit of racing this year with five trips to France in the early season. He ran well in four of those at around today’s trip and he wasn’t punished at all for this in the UK ratings, as he only went up 2lbs. Those seemed competitive races so perhaps it was fairly lenient. He made his UK reappearances in two Lingfield AW handicaps, one of them only a four runner affair, both over 1m2f. He wasn’t disgraced in either, although in the second, he got no cover and was far too keen. Tominator was also a bit keen last time when held-up towards the rear of the field in a 1m6f Newmarket handicap. That was a competitive affair, and Tominator didn’t really do too much wrong. He was keen in the early stages as mentioned, but that was likely due to the slow pace they started at. Even so, he travelled best of anyone and made a bit of ground after being hampered. He wasn’t given a hard time at all and did stay on, however he did it fairly dourly. It was a encouraging run nonetheless. Today he races over 1m4f, and that’s likely his best trip. He won off 2lbs lower over it at Wolverhampton and was very competitive in French races over the trip. A mark of 90 doesn’t seem to be too harsh a rating I feel. I expect he’ll settle better today with a quicker pace and he should be able to gallop along as he likes. The firmer ground won’t be an issue, as his two wins on turf came on this surface. Some rain is forecast but it shouldn’t make it too soft. Reg Hollinshead is having a bit of a quiet spell but Tony Culhane retaining the ride is a positive, and I’m a big fan of him. At the current prices, I feel he’s value at 16/1. Kitty Wells will be difficult to beat, but at his likely ideal trip and a race which will likely pan out quite nicely, it’s worthy of a bet. Hopefully 3 places will remain. Tominator; 1pt EW @ 16/1 Bet365 (bog)