Flat Racing: 4th Jun 2011

[RussP]

5.25 Epsom Waiting for the last race to strike a bet at Epsom on Derby Day, this race is a 17 runner, Class 2, 6f cavalry charge. There's definitely a 'type' to look for in this event, with progressive horses usually holding sway. I'm on one of the market leaders, yet it's still available at a super EW price. Fireback (10/1 William Hill BOG) - Importantly, this horse has everything in its favour today. Drawn low enough in stall 9 to get a good early position which is crucial in this race, whilst a prominent racing style is also a bonus. This one races up with the pace and is equally adept making the running or sitting in just behind. A 4yo that's quite lightly raced, I'm convinced there's more to come from this horse. He's raced at anything from 6f-1m and the trainer firmly believes a strongly run 6f is what he wants. It is also what he will get here. Won a 62K handicap off 4lb last summer at Newmarket staying on really well but has struggled since. A combination of mark, trip and ground hasn't helped, whilst he showed promise on his reappearance in a very hot heat before the lack of a recent run found him out. That will have put our selection spot on for this and a further 1lb ease in the weights can only help. The final positive is the stable form, with 4 winners from its last 10 runners, the other 6 all finishing inside the first 4. Trainer/jockey combo is also in hot form with 3 wins/1 2nd from its last 5 runners. Has an awful lot in his favour tomorrow so I'll take very generous EW odds of 10/1 in the hope we can finish the Derby meeting with a flourish.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing: 4th Jun 2011 15:40 Musselburgh Big sprint handicap over 5f, and plenty of pace likely in this race. I think it could set things up nicely for Striking Spirit who has made an interesting move to Tim Easterby, is only 1lb lower than when finishing 2^nd in this race last season and looked to be coming back to form when last running after a run of poor performances. The selection hasn’t won since July 2009 which is an obvious concern to anyone backing a horse, but he has gone close on numerous occasions over both 5 and 6 furlongs and he is far from handicapped out of this. His last win came over 6f off a mark of 93 (runs off that mark today) and has been runner up on three occasions since. Those have come when settled behind the leaders off a good pace over 5f, and when making all from the front over 6f. I think he may not have the speed to lead early over 5f especially when likely he’ll encounter a speedball or two, whilst this is less likely over 6f. This is perhaps emphasised by his last run, when 5^th over 6f at Ascot. He showed good speed and was well in contention with a furlong or so to go, he gradually weakened but was far from disgraced, especially considering his previous efforts this year. These were both disappointing but he did start off a mark of 97, which is obviously a bit high in the weights for him and he didn’t look 100% fit on either run. The previously mentioned Ascot race made him look like he was coming to the boil and he’s been dropped 1lb for that performance, which is fairly lenient of the handicapper to do. They’ll go a good pace today, with likely front runners including Fol Hollow, Verinco, Befortyfour and Favourite Girl will mean there’s plenty of competition for the lead. Although my selection can make all, I’d probably prefer him to sit back just off the leaders and hope they tire. Striking Spirit does stay a little further than this, so his stamina can come into play off a good pace. He has the form in the book to go very close, especially if recreating his run last season off a higher mark. The tongue strap will do no harm and the 12/1 on offer looks a tad generous. Striking Spirit; 1pt EW @ 12/1 Betfred (BOG)