Flat Racing - Saturday 28th May

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.20 Newmarket - 1pt win Catalyze @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG Nightmare of a race, and I'd be a lot happier if I had an idea on Catalyze's wellbeing (of the track since October), but on known form, this horse is a gigantic price at 14s in my opinion, even if it is a hugely competitive race of promising horses. This cheap colt for Andrew Balding travelled well on debut, but wasn't given too much of a hard time when finishing 4th of 12, 8l off Cochabamba over 6f at Lingfield. Unknown at the time, the winner is a very smart animal currently rated 104. It was obvious that Catalyze would come on for the run up in trip, and this proved to be bang on when opening his account in ready fashion at Salisbury over 7f. Rattling to a 4l win over Godolphin's Sagramor. That horse is now only rated 93 and won a nice handicap at Haydock last Saturday :rollin A competitive Doncaster nursery was next on the agenda for this colt, and he ran a blinder on ground possibly a little soft (good/soft), finishing 3rd, beaten two necks. It was a bit of a blanket finish to be fair - but the form still has a rock solid feel about it. Whisper Louise won the race, and is now rated 97 after her last run in the UK was to finish a 1l 3rd to 1000 Guineas heroine Blue Bunting. Rerouted was 4th at Doncaster - now rated 110 having won a (probably weak) Group 3 on his next run. Fred Willetts (now rated 90) was next and Mariachi Man (also 90) and Bridle Belle (84 also in behind). When you consider Catalyze runs off 87 tomorrow, this looks well within his compass. You may have thought his last run of the season, at Ascot, was a little under-par, but yet again the form is strong. Ended up beaten 7 1/2l in 4th of 5. The winner was Dubawi Gold - 2nd in both English and Irish 2000 Guineas this year. The 2nd, Tazahum (only 4l ahead of Catalyze) beat the very useful Fury this week and is now rated in the 100s. Big Issue was the other runner ahead of Catalyze at Ascot, and he has run a 5l 5th in a Group 3 since (rated 106). Obviously there may be horses in this race that will end up being as good as what Catalyze has faced in these tough tasks so far, but in terms of form on the table, I think he's a rock solid e/w bet at 14s assuming he's ready to go. That's my main concern, as Andrew Balding has said he might want ground on the quick side (4l win came on good/firm, Doncaster and Ascot runs on good/soft). Hopefully the rain won't come. The trainer is confident he'll stay a mile, and his dam is related to middle-distance horses in Chile. Balding is hitting good form with 2 winners and a 2nd from his last 4 runners. He shows solid level stake profits at Newmarket and if the horse is ready to go, he shouldn't be a 14/1 shot in this field.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 28th May 3:05 Haydock: Pipette 1pt win 20/1 Betfred Pipette at first glance appears to have a lot on coming back after almost a year off, however there is some reason to believe her chance has been underestimated. Last season she won first time out (as she did as a two year old) and then ran in the 1000 Guineas. Pipette raced up the centre of the course at Newmarket when the place to be was stands side. She then went to Goodwood and started at a much shorter price than Snow Fairy. Pipette finished a never nearer three lengths behind Snow Fairy and considering what Snow Fairy did after that at Epsom and the Far East that was a pretty decent effort. Its reported that Pipette has had a breathing operation and its interesting that she has been kept in training by her powerful connections. They must hope there is more to come as Pipette is already Listed placed so why carry on as a four year old? Its maybe putting two and two together and getting five, but there could be more to come from Pipette. The extra distance should be no problem, she went well fresh in the past and if the breathing op works, then it will be probably be first time too. Worth a point at the odds. 3:25 Newmarket: Desert Law 1pt win 6/1 William Hill Desert Law is a course and distance winner and the form of the race he won looks rock solid with those behind running well. Jinky who was second went in next time, with the third Cape Rambler finishing only a head behind Jinky. The third in that subsequent race, Flynn's Boy, won his next race. Going back to Desert Law, the fourth in the maiden he won, Lamasaas was on the mark next time out too. Andrew Balding is in good form at the moment picking up a couple of winners earlier this week. And he also has a profitable record at the course. Lots of possible improvers, however there is a strong chance that Desert Law is one too.