Jumps Racing ~ Friday May 27th

[mileni4uk]

Stratford 7.55 Dais Return 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Sky Ran out when in the lead lto. Unexposed over this sort of trip and could be thrown in, because he's been very lightly raced. Don't know if he'll stay, because he's never been tried beyond 3m, but in a race, where market leaders are exposed and the selection gets so much weight from them, I think the price on offer is decent. Jamie Moore won for the yard few days ago and he and Tom O'Brien will have some fun with Peter Bowen's horses this summer. Yard is now starting to fire on all cylinders.

[Darran]

Re: Jumps Racing ~ Friday May 27th Heres my thoughts on the cracking hunter chases tonight at Stratford 5.45 A tricky race to get us underway where we have the two horses who have filled the first two positions in the last two years, Cannon Bridge (1st 2010, 2nd 2009) and Lady Myfanwy (2nd 2010, 1st 2009). I find it hard to see it happening for a third time as Cannon Bridge is now 13 and his two runs so far this season have not shown much promise. I am however very interested in Lady Myfanwy who doesn’t have a penalty in this year’s race and looks well weighted as a consequence. She did disappoint a bit at Cheltenham but always seems to run well here and on the whole has had a very good season. Mad Victor was fifth in this race last year when favourite and he never really got involved. He carries a penalty for his Worcester win last week which was in a poor contest and he was flattered to finish so close to Creevytennant at Cheltenham. Although I can see him running well, the fact he disappointed in the race last year puts me off. I don’t really know what to make of Shouldhavehadthat. He easily beat Ice Tea at Bangor last time but I think it’s safe to say that horse didn’t run his race and he was a well beaten 2nd at Aintree the time before. His point form is reasonable but nothing special and although he wouldn’t be a shock winner, he is not for me. 13 months ago Hoo La Baloo finished 2nd in the bet365 Chase at Sandown and if he is in that sort of form he is a certainty here. The problem is he has been shocking in points this season. I saw him make his seasonal debut at Horseheath and he found nothing after travelling well, which is something he also did when he was beaten at 1/4 last time out. He did manage to win two starts ago but the time was pretty slow and unless the move back to Paul Nicholls has brought him back to life he simply can not win this race on the form he has shown this year. I also fully expect him to be priced up much shorter than he should be because of his former glories and because of the Nicholls factor. A quick mention for Warsaw Pact who was behind Lady Myfanwy last time but does now have the superb Gina Andrews on for the first time and a good showing from him would not surprise. Tip - Lady Myfanwy Alternative - Mad Victor 6.15 Speaking of Paul Nicholls trained horses being too short, we have another in the second race with Takeroc. This is a horse who doesn’t want to win and although it wouldn’t surprise me to see him placed again, I find it very hard to see him score. The race he won at Leicester earlier in the season was so bad it was a gift and this is a lot stronger. I Have Dreamed was impressive at Kempton but then disappointed at Aintree where he didn’t really jump well and the gamble connections took in stepping him up to three miles did not work. This is the ideal trip for him and I expect a much better run tonight. Gaelic Flight had gone the wrong way under rules but has got a couple of decent enough victories in points this season. He did unseat his jockey at the weekend though and I can’t help thinking that this trip is going to be on the sharp side for him at the age of 13. I think Overlut is very interesting in a race that he won in 2009. He seemed to be struggling this season but he was given a wind up and returned to win last month in a fast time, beating a useful yardstick. That run suggests he is back to his best and if that’s the case he should go close here. Ryeman’s only win in 15 starts under rules was in this race last year but this looks a much stronger renewal and as his record proves, he does find it very hard to win. The other horse worth a mention is McCauley who has been crying out to go left handed after the way he has run at Ludlow and Towcester this season. He does have a few lengths to make up on Takeroc based on their Hereford run together but I think McCauley has improved since then and a bold showing at a big price would not surprise. Tip - Overlut Alternative - I Have Dreamed 7.20 As I write this, Upton Springs is currently favourite for the John Corbett Cup, which surprises me. She ran a cracker at Cheltenham last time when finishing second but there looks to be more progressive horses than her in the line-up and she doesn’t seem an obvious candidate to get this longer trip either given how badly she faded at Cheltenham. The strongest bet of the night for me comes in the shape of My Flora who should go off favourite. This horse looks very progressive and has been aimed at this race. Billyvodden was the horse who beat Upton Springs at Cheltenham on the same card as My Flora did back in March. My Flora was a second faster carrying 7lbs more weight. After that win she made her rules debut at Bangor where she ended up winning very easily after some sketchy jumping in the early stages. In my view that was down to the quick ground and the rain that fell yesterday will have been a massive boost to her chances. I think she could be a potential Cheltenham horse next season and if that is the case she will be hard to beat here. Dammam won the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham earlier in the month and given how much the form has been boosted, he holds solid claims and should run his race again. Bobs Law was a decent winner of a Chepstow Hunter Chase last month where Rosies Peacock was withdrawn at the start. Rosies Peacock has won since then when he beat Pathian Prince by further than Bobs Law did at Chepstow. Rosies Peacock will probably be a bigger price than Bobs Law but shouldn’t be and is my main danger to My Flora. I’d be a bit surprised if any of the others were good enough to win this. Tip - My Flora - NAP Alternative - Rosies Peacock 8.25 Finally we have a really decent renewal of the race which used to be known as the Horse & Hound Cup, and behind Cheltenham and Aintree, is the third largest Hunter Chase of the season. The shortlist contains Aggie’s Lad, Eleazar, Surenaga and Turko. Aggie’s Lad has done nothing but progress with each run and followed up his Carlisle win (strong form for a three runner race) with a very comfortable success at Aintree. If Shouldhavhadthat runs well in the first race then the Aintree form will look even stronger. The trip shouldn’t be a problem but he probably could have done without the rain as he loves fast ground. Eleazar is a hard horse to weigh up. The reason I say that is because I am not sure how well Dante’s Storm ran at Uttoxeter as he had no response to Eleazar once that one had gone past him entering the home straight. Either Dante’s Storm underperformed, is not as good as I thought he was, or Eleazar put in a brilliant performance. I am going to tentatively go with the later as I think this race has been the target for him. He has needed plenty of pushing to keep him interested in the early stages in his two runs so far this season so the trip should suit him perfectly and as long as Ryan Mahon can make sure he is not to far back early doors he can run a big race. He isn’t going to be the pick though as I’m with Surenaga. He won the Royal Artillery Gold Cup at Sandown in February before finishing third under a penalty in the Grand Military back there. I saw him in his next start at Maisemore where he was hugely impressive and beat Lady Myfanwy (runs 1st), Dennis The Legend (won a Towcester handicap last week) and The Polomonche (won at Aintree recently). Following that he went on to win one of pointing’s big races, the Lady Dudley Cup, beating Cedrus Libani (won twice since) by a very easy 12L. I have to admit I can’t find any negatives to his chances and all being well he should be bang there in the closing stages. Turko has had a decent season and clearly still has enough ability to hold decent claims here. I would be a bit concerned about his jumping though and his Newbury win was in a very weak race, but he wouldn’t surprise me if he won. Of the others, Templer, who ran a huge race to be 2nd in this last year, has place claims but struggles to win races as was proven at Cheltenham last time when he only just won a much poorer race than this. Mister Apple’s ran a bit of a stinker at Cheltenham but a first time visor might perk him up and with Tom Cannon on top I would not want to rule him out in a hurry. Finally, Herons Well surely will not stay the trip. Tip - Surenaga - NB Alternative - Eleazar