Faxy Fowler Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I tried this a few months ago (at the turn of the year) but felt it needed considerable refinement so scrapped it. I am trying a new strategy now, which takes account of form in the last 7 tournaments on both the European and PGA Tour plus performances in the specific event in 2008, 2009 and 2010 (if played over the same course). This ranks the players in order. It also gives me true odds for each player (with thanks to those who contributed to my golf probability question in the other forum). I've decided the top five in the ratings will be bet on a sliding 5-1 scale, therefore 15 pts risked in each tournament. There is certainly value to be had on the face of it. Last week placed David Toms at 1 and Michael Hoey at 4 in my ratings and taking the 33/1 widely quoted for each would have returned a jaw-dropping 208 pts, which was very exciting indeed. So here we go - not real money but selections here - starting with bank of 240 to cover 8 weeks without a winner.....Betfair odds currently available being used. BANK - 240 pts EUROPEAN TOUR - BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP Luke Donald 5pts @ 8.4 Thomas Aiken 4pts @ 48 Charl Schwartzel 3pts @ 22 Danny Willett 2pts @ 95 Paul Lawrie 1pt @ 95 PGA TOUR - HP BYRON NELSON CLASSIC K.J. Choi 5pts @ 23 Jason Day 4pts @ 16.5 Sergio Garcia 3pts @ 36 Jordan Spieth 2pts @ 310 Shane Bertsch 1pt @ 1000 The true book for the BMW PGA I deleted by mistake (apologies) but the true odds for Donald worked out something like 21/1. For the USPGA event Choi should be 17/1, Day 21/1, Garcia 24/1. For now, given last weeks results more comfortable working around the top five in the order. Never heard of Spieth, but in 82 meetings against golfers in this week's field he's won 71 of them, hence his rating. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) GL mate. :hope Couple of things: 1) If Donald is truly 21/1, then why are you backing him at 8.4? 2) Jordan Speith is a 17yo amateur. Not sure he's played a great deal on tour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) 1. Its fair enough to go with what might seem like the value option, but the odds for golf are generally high enough in my view to justify trying to pick out who you actually think will bring it home. Even if Donald mightn't seem value, I think that is offset by the fact that Aiken, Willett and Lawrie offer considerable value. Jason Day in the US event is lower odds that I would think too. If Donald wins at those odds, the profit will still be somewhere around 30 pts, double what was risked. In a horse race I would definitely seek out a value horse, but in golf where the field is upwards of 100, and picking the winner is notoriously difficult, I'd like to get into the habit of picking winners then working from there, ideally. 2. Speith played this tournament last year and tied 16th. I would still never have expected the computer to turn him out, but on the advice of another poster, I felt it was fair enough to look at how people have played on the specific course itself. There will obviously be quite a lot of picks which are unlikely to go close. Last week, the 5 pt Madeira pick had we started would have been Charles-Eduoard Russo, for example, who missed the cut. That's golf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) UPDATE BMW PGA Championship Donald -6 tied for the lead :ok Aiken -4 tied for fourth :ok Willett, Schwartzel and Lawrie have all missed the cut so its down to those two. HP Byron Nelson (some with around 4 holes left to complete) Garcia -8 tied for lead :ok Spieth -3 tied for 8th :ok Choi +2 tied for 57th Day +3 tied for 61st should just make the weekend Bertsch +5 will miss the cut once the scores are completed. There is hope for both events. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjohn Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) Not too bad a start Faxy, a winner in one and 3 in the top 10 with a few holes of the final days play gone. It looked even better about 20 minutes ago, hope it turns your way again before the end of play. :clap:clap:clap:clap Good luck, jimjohn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) Thanks jimjohn for those kind words. Results: BMW PGA Championship - Luke Donald takes it in play off - all we can ask for is to select the winner and he was the five point pick for the week. HP Byron Nelson Championship - We got a decent run for our money but not the pay off this time, Garcia a poor final round of 77 and Spieth defying all expectation but collapsing 6 shots in the final 4 holes. Jason Day left his best until it was a bit late, and Choi had a plodding week on the tour. Overall though, despite not picking the winner, we had chances. So, taking off the 5% BF commission, the result: EUROPEAN TOUR - BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP Luke Donald 5pts @ 8.4 WON :clap +35.15 pts Thomas Aiken 4pts @ 48 T39 -4pts Charl Schwartzel 3pts @ 22 MC -3pts Danny Willett 2pts @ 95 MC -2pts Paul Lawrie 1pt @ 95 MC -1pt PGA TOUR - HP BYRON NELSON CLASSIC K.J. Choi 5pts @ 23 T40th -5pts Jason Day 4pts @ 16.5 5th -4pts Sergio Garcia 3pts @ 36 T20th -3pts Jordan Spieth 2pts @ 310 T32 -2pts Shane Bertsch 1pt @ 1000 MC -1pt TOTAL European Tour - +25.15pts US Tour - -15pts POINTS: 10.15 NEW BANK: 250.15 pts :clap So off to a steady start. Will be the Memorial at Muirfield Village and the Welsh Open next week, selections will be either tomorrow or Wednesday once the fields for each are confirmed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) Well done chook :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) WEEK TWO PREDICTIONS Here are the second week's picks, the odds I have derived are in brackets but for now I am centering on the top five in my reckoning as explained earlier. The Wales Open looks very wide open to a number of players. As an aside, I make Justin Rose just over 80/1 to defend the Memorial, and Graeme McDowell is close on 50/1 based on the rating format. PGA TOUR - MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT Luke Donald 5pts @ 12.5 (16.94) Phil Mickelson 4pts @ 16.5 (22.31) Matt Kuchar 3pts @ 19.5 (24.27) Steve Stricker 2pts @ 29 (24.32) Stewart Cink 1pt @ 42 (28.40) EUROPEAN TOUR - SAAB WALES OPEN Thomas Bjorn 5pts @ 60 (31.05) Anders Hansen 4pts @ 32 (34.30) Robert Rock 3pts @ 90 (34.68) Thomas Levet 2pts @ 100 (36.82) Simon Dyson 1pt @ 20 (36.97) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) The US Picks are looking good. Stricker has a five shot lead at a late stage in the third round with Kuchar tied for second. Donald is tied 12th and the other two made the weekend. The European one is virtually down to Hansen. He is one shot back going into tomorrow's final round. Could be reporting a promising start to this and hope to do so tomorrow. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anuth Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) The system is looking good mate. Three shots lead for stricker and now the tournament is delayed I have two questions and I won't expect you to give me your system just tell as much as you can. 1. What data do you use in this system? I mean for example the overall score or the finished place. 2. Where you can get the data from? Cheers Please keep posting :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) Results: Welsh Open - We were left with Anders Hansen on the final day and he finished tied second - a fair run but a poor start to his final round left him too much to do. Memorial Tournament - We have another winner with Stricker. At various stages he was comfortably ahead and won as it turned out by one shot. But even if he'd blown it we stiil had Matt Kuchar finishing joint second and given he was a three point pick at around 2/3rds of the odds of Stricker. Good week for all the US picks. So, taking off the 5% BF commission, the result: PGA TOUR - MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT Luke Donald 5pts @ 12.5 (16.94) T7 -5pts Phil Mickelson 4pts @ 16.5 (22.31) T13 -4pts Matt Kuchar 3pts @ 19.5 (24.27) T2 -3pts Steve Stricker 2pts @ 29 (24.32) WON +53.2pts :clap Stewart Cink 1pt @ 42 (28.40) T30 -1pt EUROPEAN TOUR - SAAB WALES OPEN Thomas Bjorn 5pts @ 60 (31.05) MC -5pts Anders Hansen 4pts @ 32 (34.30) T2 -4pts Robert Rock 3pts @ 90 (34.68) MC -3pts Thomas Levet 2pts @ 100 (36.82) 64 -2pts Simon Dyson 1pt @ 20 (36.97) T20 -1pt TOTAL European Tour - +10.15pts US Tour - +25.20pts POINTS: +35.35pts NEW BANK: 275.35 pts Excellent, a winner in each of the first two weeks so far. Next week the FedEx St Jude Classic defended by Lee Westwood, and the Italian Open with Fredrik Andersson Hed the current champion. Will wait to see the fields for each before posting selections. Work commitments could prove tricky but will try my damndest. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (week 2) The system is looking good mate. Three shots lead for stricker and now the tournament is delayed I have two questions and I won't expect you to give me your system just tell as much as you can. 1. What data do you use in this system? I mean for example the overall score or the finished place. 2. Where you can get the data from? Cheers Please keep posting :ok Thanks. Very, very early days. I hope I don't seem too secretive, but I take the placing of all players in each of the last 7 Tour events both sides of the pond, and the last 3 events played on the particular course (for regular events only) and rank them to figure out a ranking order. Its not terribly scientific, it seemed to me to mix good current form alongside some previous confirmed ability on the course in question. I am still yet to decide how to factor the last 3 events for the upcoming US Open; it is played at a different course each year, having said that, the set up is usually fairly penalising year in year out, so previous performances for 08, 09 and 10 are ultimately likely to be assessed. The data is available from just about anywhere, but I personally use the yahoosports listing, because the data is easy to find in one place and copies pretty easily to excel. To complete this week's picture, I ranked Alex Noren (won Welsh Open) as the 57th ranked golfer in that field (odds over 170/1). Brandt Jobe who was joint runner up stateside was 23rd in my ranking (odds around 70/1). For now very happy with how we have started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) Nice start so far Faxy :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS Here we go again, just before midnight. Been busy with work and then other things so a bit late. As per last two, the derived odds in brackets and the odds at the time of typing from Betfair. FEDEX ST. JUDE CLASSIC Lee Westwood 5pts @ 8.20 (17.23) David Toms 4pts @ 13.00 (23.37) Brian Gay 3pts 21.00 @ (33.53) Zach Johnson 2pts @ 16.50 (33.88) Sergio Garcia 1pt @ 28.00 (34.15) BMW ITALIAN OPEN Francesco Molinari 5pts @ 11.00 (28.70) Matteo Manassero 4pts @ 8.40 (30.91) Phillip Price 3pts @ 100.00 (31.75) Pablo Larrazabal 2pts @ 34.00 (32.94) Ariel Canete 1pt @ 410.00 (33.93) Westwood won the FedEx last year and I have the same first five that Betfair themselves have here. The Italian Open seems to have bizarrely thrown up Price and Canete but there we go...again the European one seems more wide open than stateside where I find Westwood and Toms to be the two to beat. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) To round up Andersson Hed is 140 on Betfair. I rank him 91 for this field and closer to around 550/1. In short, he won it last year but I expect him to miss the cut. I only took the last two Italian Opens as the 2008 event was played on a different course so I didn't regard form from 3 years ago at a different venue to be particularly relevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anuth Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) Good Luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) This week seems like the European Tour is the one that might get us home. All five comfortably in for the weekend (Manassero and Molinari 2 off) with the course playing easily. Canete has gone round in par for his third round (on a course where 3 under looks more like par) and is going to be way too far back but everyone else still in the hunt. Same can't be said stateside where Westwood and Johnson are both through but are a long way back and my other three will be having a nice leisurely weekend off, Garcia throwing in an 11 at one of the par fives in the first round. Still plenty to play for. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS FEDEX ST. JUDE CLASSIC Lee Westwood 5pts @ 8.20 T11 David Toms 4pts @ 13.00 MC Brian Gay 3pts 21.00 @ MC Zach Johnson 2pts @ 16.50 T32 Sergio Garcia 1pt @ 28.00 MC BMW ITALIAN OPEN Francesco Molinari 5pts @ 11.00 T8 Matteo Manassero 4pts @ 8.40 T8 Phillip Price 3pts @ 100.00 T28 Pablo Larrazabal 2pts @ 34.00 T11 Ariel Canete 1pt @ 410.00 T62 Nothing this week and we lose 30 pts. In truth, given there were a few low and mid 60s in the final round of the Italian, Molinari's final round of 70 must be regarded as a disappointment. Still some decent finishes and the scheme overall in profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) TOTAL (after week 3) European Tour - -4.85pts US Tour - +10.20pts POINTS: +5.35pts NEW BANK: 245.35 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piginabush Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) will be following this one with interest faxy, as both a player and watcher of the game, and a more than interested sports statistics system designer :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) WEEK FOUR PREDICTIONS US OPEN Lee Westwood 5pts @ 13.00 (25.31) Jason Day 4pts @ 46.00 (26.97) Phil Mickelson 3pts @ 17.00 (27.46) Steve Stricker 2pts @ 25.00 (33.92) Peter Hanson 1pt @ 160.00 (35.41) For the record Luke Donald is 11th on my ranking and Graeme McDowell as defending champion is 14th. SAINT-OMER OPEN Alastair Forsyth 5pts @ 28.00 (25.02) Jose-Filipe Lima 4pts @ 22.00 (25.78) Alessandro Tadini 3 pts @ 75.00 (33.29) Ariel Canete 2pts @ 70.00 (34.80) Jorge Campillo 1pt @ 170.00 (34.82) Martin Wiegele defends this week. I rank him 7th in the field. I have slightly modified the selection process for this week. Having noted it was based on percentages, it ranked someone called Russell Henley as no. 3 for the US Open (?) based on him tying for 16th last year (now 66th) and Shane Lowry at 5 (now 70th). I've scaled back the percentages for those with fewer results and it does on the face of it seem to give a more realistic picture. It would probably have dropped Jordan Spieth out of the week 1 reckoning too. Additionally I took the decision that for the US Open that I would cound the results of the last 3 US Opens even though played on different courses. There has been some PGA tournaments at Congressional, but I will ignore those results as the course will have been set up quite differently (and the US Open set up is notoriously difficult and suits some golfers year in year out). I have to admit to being quite happy with what this week has thrown up. :hope If people have particular queries on where golfers are ranked, I am happy to answer them. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) Looks like McIlroy is going to blow the rest out of the water here...Westwood and Day tied for third but so far behind you might say its unlikely. Chances in the French event with three in the top ten but again, a leader who will probably have to come back to the field a little, realistically. Expecting to be behind after this weekend at present. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) If it wasn't for McIlroy being 10 ahead I'd have four picks in the top six....damn him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) WEEK FOUR PREDICTIONS US OPEN Lee Westwood 5pts @ 13.00 (25.31) T3 Jason Day 4pts @ 46.00 (26.97) 2nd Phil Mickelson 3pts @ 17.00 (27.46) T54 Steve Stricker 2pts @ 25.00 (33.92) T19 Peter Hanson 1pt @ 160.00 (35.41) T7 SAINT-OMER OPEN Alastair Forsyth 5pts @ 28.00 (25.02) T12 Jose-Filipe Lima 4pts @ 22.00 (25.78) MC Alessandro Tadini 3 pts @ 75.00 (33.29) T24 Ariel Canete 2pts @ 70.00 (34.80) WD Jorge Campillo 1pt @ 170.00 (34.82) T5 30pts lost this week, in fairness, got 4 top 10 finishes and another 2 in the top 20. Two runaway winners. Zions was 47th on my list of golfers in that tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) TOTAL (after week 4) European Tour - -19.85pts US Tour - -4.80 pts POINTS: -24.65pts NEW BANK: 215.35 pts Couple of decent events next week, the Travelers Championship and BMW International. Bubba Watson and David Horsey defending respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) WEEK FIVE PICKS EUROPEAN TOUR - BMW INTERNATIONAL OPEN Jbe' Kruger 5pts @ 150.00 (22.50) Anders Hansen 4pts @ 25.00 (25.89) Retief Goosen 3pts @ 21.00 (25.99) Dustin Johnson 2pts @ 15.00 (30.23) Matteo Manassero 1pt @ 21.00 (36.80) I rank Horsey 12th, Kaymer 16th, Garcia is miles down the list due mostly to limited events against this weeks field and a poor record when he has matched these players. PGA TOUR - TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP Zach Johnson 5pts @ 27.00 (22.70) Bubba Watson 4pts @ 24.00 (28.95) Hunter Mahan 3pts @ 15.00 (30.29) Paul Goydos 2pts @ 95.00 (35.33) Webb Simpson 1pt @ 38.00 (35.56) The bookies rate Mahan as favourite and Nick Watney is another field notable in 15th. Stewart Cink always does notably well here and I had wondered why he wasn't in this top five but a double check seems to suggest he has skipped this event. These odds are based on a very limited amount of money being matched. If I get time on the day before I will amend these odds to reflect what is available on the Wednesday (shortening or lengthening as necessary) but I wanted to get my selections in today. Still plenty of confidence given we have had some excellent finishes so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) WEEK FIVE PICKS EUROPEAN TOUR - BMW INTERNATIONAL OPEN Jbe' Kruger 5pts @ 150.00 (22.50) Anders Hansen 4pts @ 25.00 (25.89) Retief Goosen 3pts @ 21.00 (25.99) Dustin Johnson 2pts @ 15.00 (30.23) Matteo Manassero 1pt @ 21.00 (36.80) I rank Horsey 12th, Kaymer 16th, Garcia is miles down the list due mostly to limited events against this weeks field and a poor record when he has matched these players. PGA TOUR - TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP Zach Johnson 5pts @ 27.00 (22.70) Bubba Watson 4pts @ 24.00 (28.95) Hunter Mahan 3pts @ 15.00 (30.29) Paul Goydos 2pts @ 95.00 (35.33) Webb Simpson 1pt @ 38.00 (35.56) The bookies rate Mahan as favourite and Nick Watney is another field notable in 15th. Stewart Cink always does notably well here and I had wondered why he wasn't in this top five but a double check seems to suggest he has skipped this event. These odds are based on a very limited amount of money being matched. If I get time on the day before I will amend these odds to reflect what is available on the Wednesday (shortening or lengthening as necessary) but I wanted to get my selections in today. Still plenty of confidence given we have had some excellent finishes so far. Hi Faxy Fowler. Looks like your system is producing selections that are giving you a run for your money - congratulations. Not sure if you have considered any other ways to utillise your picks i.e. 72 hole match bets, make the cut or top ten finish. I don't know what sort of odds are available for the above types of bets or how many bookies quote odds for normal weekly events (as opposed to majors or larger events) but it may be worth a look to see if there is any value to be had. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) Thanks. Manassero and Goosen both have chances and Simpson doing well enough stateside (but a 60 from Cantlay sending him well clear). I could look at top five or top ten finishes. Betfair runs markets on those. It might be worth considering a revised staking plan which could drip the winnings through in lesser amounts but maybe more regularly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) EUROPEAN TOUR - BMW INTERNATIONAL OPEN Jbe' Kruger 5pts @ 150.00 (22.50) T64 Anders Hansen 4pts @ 25.00 (25.89) MC Retief Goosen 3pts @ 21.00 (25.99) T3 Dustin Johnson 2pts @ 15.00 (30.23) T18 Matteo Manassero 1pt @ 21.00 (36.80) T14 PGA TOUR - TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP Zach Johnson 5pts @ 27.00 (22.70) T24 Bubba Watson 4pts @ 24.00 (28.95) T38 Hunter Mahan 3pts @ 15.00 (30.29) T43 Paul Goydos 2pts @ 95.00 (35.33) MC Webb Simpson 1pt @ 38.00 (35.56) T13 30 pts lost this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) TOTAL (after week 5) European Tour - -34.85pts US Tour - -19.80 pts POINTS: -54.65pts NEW BANK: 185.35 pts The bank is big enough to withstand eight losing weeks in a row but we will at least get to week 11 before it all but goes bust altogether. This weeks selections shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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