Golf prediction thread (new format)

[Faxy Fowler]

I tried this a few months ago (at the turn of the year) but felt it needed considerable refinement so scrapped it. I am trying a new strategy now, which takes account of form in the last 7 tournaments on both the European and PGA Tour plus performances in the specific event in 2008, 2009 and 2010 (if played over the same course). This ranks the players in order. It also gives me true odds for each player (with thanks to those who contributed to my golf probability question in the other forum). I've decided the top five in the ratings will be bet on a sliding 5-1 scale, therefore 15 pts risked in each tournament. There is certainly value to be had on the face of it. Last week placed David Toms at 1 and Michael Hoey at 4 in my ratings and taking the 33/1 widely quoted for each would have returned a jaw-dropping 208 pts, which was very exciting indeed. So here we go - not real money but selections here - starting with bank of 240 to cover 8 weeks without a winner.....Betfair odds currently available being used. BANK - 240 pts EUROPEAN TOUR - BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP Luke Donald 5pts @ 8.4 Thomas Aiken 4pts @ 48 Charl Schwartzel 3pts @ 22 Danny Willett 2pts @ 95 Paul Lawrie 1pt @ 95 PGA TOUR - HP BYRON NELSON CLASSIC K.J. Choi 5pts @ 23 Jason Day 4pts @ 16.5 Sergio Garcia 3pts @ 36 Jordan Spieth 2pts @ 310 Shane Bertsch 1pt @ 1000 The true book for the BMW PGA I deleted by mistake (apologies) but the true odds for Donald worked out something like 21/1. For the USPGA event Choi should be 17/1, Day 21/1, Garcia 24/1. For now, given last weeks results more comfortable working around the top five in the order. Never heard of Spieth, but in 82 meetings against golfers in this week's field he's won 71 of them, hence his rating. :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf prediction thread (new format) GL mate. :hope Couple of things: 1) If Donald is truly 21/1, then why are you backing him at 8.4? 2) Jordan Speith is a 17yo amateur. Not sure he's played a great deal on tour.