BBOTD Sunday 1st May

[Lars]

15:50 Newmarket The D’Arcy and Tony Culhane combination paid dividends earlier in the week for me at Ascot, and I think the current price is stupidly large for Edinburgh Knight who is unexposed on turf. This will only be the 4yo’s second proper season, having only run once at 2. He was touted as horse that might be up to Group level as a 3yo, that unfortunately never materialised but he’s ran some good races and I think things will fall just right for him today. His all-weather record is much better than on turf, with 3 wins from 8 on the artificial surface. The last of these came when last running, when he powered home late to beat Silaah (who reopposes today) by a length. He came with a powerful late run making huge strides, even though the race perhaps wasn’t run at a quick enough gallop that he would like. That run was also his first win at 6f, his other wins coming at 7f. Today will only be his fifth start on turf, and one of those came on debut so should really be ignored. His other three turf starts, I feel can all be excused. Two of them came in races far too competitive for him, a listed race and the Craven stakes. One of these was also over a trip that was too far, and it can definitely be said that he was thrown in at the deep-end. His last turf start, and the only one to come in Handicap Company, was over 5f. As stated above, he’s done his winning over 7f so this was always going to be far too sharp. Watching that race back, he did make some good headway towards the finish, and wasn’t given a hard time at all. It shows that he handles turf, and needs a bit further than the minimum trip. Although today’s race isn’t full of pace, it’s a big field handicap at Newmarket and I find it highly unlikely they’ll go an absolute dawdle, with plenty of horses who like to be prominent in the field. The selection needs a decent gallop, and will be coming on late in the race. I feel he’ll be able to land a blow and should run well. He has been off since December, but Paul D’Arcy is very capable of getting him ready, and he did win off the back of an absence last season. Tony Culhane takes the ride, which is a positive as this trainer’s best horses often are ridden by this jockey. I feel his current mark of 89 is well within his range, and as he was a scopey looking 3yo, he should mature into a nice 4yo. The current odds are far too big, and would be tempted to stake more. However it’s a big field and there’s all number of dangers, as well as potential traffic problems with a hold up horse. Still, I think he has decent claims. Edinburgh Knight; EW @ 20/1 Stan James [Actually got 25/1, but the bloody price changed whilst typing this, darn it!]

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 1st May 16.05 Salisbury Reflect - 1 pt win @ SP in this weak field Reflect comes with the experience that should hand him the win he was a good third last out at newbury and is still entered for the Derby and this should be the ideal practice race for him to pick up a win as he sets all the standards