BBOTD Wednesday 27th April

[Lars]

Ascot 16:50 Nelson’s Bounty landed a big gamble on his second start, and then went in again when weak in the market on his next start. He was then very unlucky in-running after been punted in again and I still think that this big horse has scope for improvement and the 12/1 on offer is too big. The 4yo has only had seven starts, and improved rapidly from an opening mark of 69 to his current mark of 81. He showed some quirks when in maiden company, and then on handicap debut but has seemingly left all that behind, as on his second start in handicap company he won pretty easily when racing over a mile at Lingfield, getting the job done well. He was stepped up in trip and won again at Yarmouth, in a race where the form couldn’t have worked out better, with all bar one of the runners having improved in the ratings. He had to work hard, but found a lot for pressure and pulled away from all bar one of his rivals, but still won cosily by 1.25 lengths. He was last seen at Sandown, in a race of similar quality to this (smaller field). He was travelling well and then made his challenge, and was making progress before being hampered pretty severely, and then was eased. He was well backed that day, with some serious on-course bets, so obviously a lot was expected of that run. He stays on the same mark of 81, and I think this big field could help. He looks to stay a little further than 1m, so the decent pace that is likely to come from this race will benefit this increased stamina. Nelson’s Bounty hasn’t been seen for 229 days and it may be a concern that he may come on for the run. He looked a scopey sort at 3 however and is sure to have matured and filled out even further into his 4yo season. If so, I feel he could improve by another 10lbs this year. Although his sole turf win came on softer ground, he should handle this faster surface, as his dam won plenty of times on firmer ground. Paul D’Arcy is in good form, and if he’s got Nelson’s Bounty fit, he has massive claims in this race. Tony Culhane gets on well with this mount, and his booking is a positive, him being the first choice jockey for the trainer. The current price of 12/1 is huge, although it will be the market that defines his chances. You’ll be getting worried with this yard if it drifts out to 20’s before the off, but I’ll take my chances. Nelson’s Bounty; EW @ 12/1 Ladbrokes (4 places BOG)

[Cal]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April AYR 4:30 BOGSIDE. Bogside ran 10 days ago and was absolutely outclassed by an immense ride and a lovely horse in Russian War and Paul Carberry. However, he drops down in grade here and has more of a chance. He also drops back in trip and is suited to a 2 miler which he is running at here. He probably wants softer ground but I will take a chance on him here at good ground although he seems to pull hard on good ground early on but ignoring that aside, it isn't a race that stands out with a clear fave for me and with Bogside running on a mark of 118 which he ran and won at Kelso back at the start of the month. Question marks about all of these runners as Toshi's form figures don't inspire and his last win was back in August 2009, although runs off a better mark here after a better performance LTO. Plan A looks too high in the weights for me and Jewelled Dagger having not ran since September. Tout Regulier could be worth a chance after performing on G-F and probably needed the run LTO but Bogside has a very decent opportunity here and even with question marks over the ground, I will take a chance.