Jumps Racing - Monday 25th April 2011

[RuleBritannia]

455 Fairyhouse - Saddlers Storm 1pt EW @ 20/1 (5 places) Bet365 Favourite for this race lst year and was described at the time as a very well handicapped animal who if things went right for him, would take all the beating. Going as well as anything when unseating 5 out on that occasion. Has run only 3 times this season. A chase where he disapointed, a hurdles race wich was the first in his career thus far and the Kim Muir at Cheltenham lto. The general feeling was the Kim Muir was just to sharpen him up for his main target this season, which is another crack at this race. Only 2lbs higher than he was last season, so it's very conceivable that he is still well handicapped and I'm confident Cheltenham wont have taken much out as he was never ridden with any great exertions. 20/1 could look a very big price here come the business end of the race and I fully expect him to take a hand in this race. Trainer also knows what it's like to win this race and will have him spot on.

[Lars]

Re: Jumps Racing - Monday 25th April 2011 16:55 Fairyhouse; The Irish Grand National Ever since his run in the Paddy Power Chase back in December at Leopardstown, I thought that Ambobo may make a Irish National horse, and although he’s failed to complete the race in his past two efforts, there’s reason to suggest that he’s still improving, even aged 11 and may be able to easily outrun his current odds of 33/1. The Martin Brassil trained gelding hasn’t won since May 2009, where he won a Grade B handicap chase over 3m1f, off incidentally a mark 1lb higher than he runs off today. It was a promising success and should have led to better things, but he was hit hard in the weights, and then struggled. This is shown by his run last year in this race (racing off effectively 11lbs higher than he does today). He ran fairly promisingly before fading, he was then hampered and then refused the fence, which is a fair excuse. His first run this season, mentioned earlier, was the one that really caught my eye, and a replication of that effort could see him bang there. He got a fair bit behind but was finishing like a train, ending up in sixth. That was in the ultra-competitive Paddy Power chase, run over 3m. From that run, it looked like he should handle the extra 5f that he encounters today. This could be backed up by his last run, when seen in a fair handicap over 3m2f. Again, he wasn’t stopping at the finish. It was the furthest he’d run excluding in two previous tries at this race, so that provides encouragement that he’d stay if getting round. Even though he hasn’t finished in this race the last twice, his jumping (touchwood) seems to have improved, something that cost him on these occasions. He should enjoy the good ground, having won on it while in France and placed on it at Punchestown earlier in his career. Martin Brassil knows how to win this race, which he did so in 2005, and I feel he’s been doing his best to protect this horse’s mark. Think this one has a big chance of outrunning its odds, especially as running on such a skinny weight (9-11) and is 11lbs lower than when putting a satisfactory effort in last year. He hopefully can go well, and with 5 places on offer, I’m hopeful of a decent run. Ambobo; 1.5pts EW @ 33/1 Bet365 (bog)