ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 @ datapunter : toss coin is the good example. if bookmaker offers tails @ 2.50 because mass punters bets on the other , you will take tails or not ? and what probability do you think that tails has. ? @ datapunter again :) : you have never answered on my question. can you answer please : what is your alternative ? For the moment, only Mulkis have proposed a table with a backtest. Please, Anybody wants argue-cons do the same . Thank you :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? The conclusion that the prices are all correct is where the error is. Maybe they are all priced wrong. Even then you can get a correct average. It really is that elementary. They (the prices) may very well all be correct! The average will be the same. It really is that elementary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Mulkis, yes, they may all be correct, and they may all be wrong. YOU DON"T KNOW WHICH IS THE CASE. You cannot conclude they are correct as there is the possibility they are not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? ChrisB, the flaw in your reasoning is that with a coin toss you actually know the % in betting you do not know the % and in fact you cannot ever determine the actual % that is so elementary about "value betting" the comparison just doesn't work. The scenario is still the same: Quote: What i did was i took 500 bets with an expectation of 40% translated in "fair odds" of 2.50 Then i took 500 bets with an expectation of 60% translates in "fair odds" of 1.66 And then i mixed them all up completely randomly. If you bet on all 1000 bets at odds of 2.00 you will break even at the end. Therefore the odds of 2.00 are COMPLETELY ACCURATE..... on average. But here's the key: they are only accurate if you actually bet on all 1000 bets. As soon as you bet on a sub-group the accuracy is no longer valid. When you bet at odds of 2.00 when the odds should actually be 2.50 you will end up making a loss. But as you also bet at 2.00 on each bet where the odds should be 1.66 that profit compensates the loss made on the 2.50 ones. So on average the numbers add up perfectly. I'm beginning to really like ChrisB and because of that every 5th bet i'm going to offer him odds of 2.25 . So out of 1000 bets 200 are offered at 2.25. Great, ChrisB bets on all of them and makes a very tidy profit. After all 200 of them have odds above average and therefore result in profit. ChrisB, you agree you make a profit ? I am trying to explain something to you if you can manage to actually listen for 2 seconds. You are never going to get it unless you get each element involved. Now do you agree with the conclusion in this quote ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Mulkis, yes, they may all be correct, and they may all be wrong. YOU DON"T KNOW WHICH IS THE CASE. You cannot conclude they are correct as there is the possibility they are not. Yes, but my analysis shows that they (odds) are much more likely to be correct than not. I would suggest to take it into account and finalise this splendid discssion somehow:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 correct or wrong, at the end, there will be most correct price than wrong price. deviation% @ 5.5% justified :) yes, we know the % . not precisely, but with a low error margin. datapunter, thanks to post your alternative. i'm curious to see it, and also to advance in the interesting debate. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? I'm beginning to really like ChrisB and because of that every 5th bet i'm going to offer him odds of 2.25 . So out of 1000 bets 200 are offered at 2.25. Great, ChrisB bets on all of them and makes a very tidy profit. After all 200 of them have odds above average and therefore result in profit. ChrisB, you agree you make a profit ? ChrisB, DON'T! Take all 1000 @2.25 or nothing! 200 will not work! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Mulkis, if you're joining in then answer the question as it is put. You agree in the given case or not. We can only get to the next situation if you agree with the one in the quote. ChrisB, i haven't given you an alternative yet, i'm still trying to explain why your current method is flawed, so in the given situation in the quote, do you agree you make a profit ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Datapunter, You answered your question yourself in your example: "But here's the key: they are only accurate if you actually bet on all 1000 bets." This is obvious. Dont look for idiots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? I'm beginning to really like ChrisB and because of that every 5th bet i'm going to offer him odds of 2.25 . So out of 1000 bets 200 are offered at 2.25. Great, ChrisB bets on all of them and makes a very tidy profit. After all 200 of them have odds above average and therefore result in profit. ChrisB, you agree you make a profit ? You answered your question yourself in your example: "But here's the key: they are only accurate if you actually bet on all 1000 bets." This is obvious I take that as a yes ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? ChrisB' date=' DON'T! Take all 1000 @2.25 or nothing! 200 will not work![/quote'] Acctually its NO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? datapunter, with your scenario, i will not make profit. now i'm waiting for you to show me by a+b=c why the scenario of mulkis is flawed. again sorry for my english and my poor vocabulary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? WOW, hang on one moment, back up them horses. I present you with 1000 bets, you know the strike rate is 50%, i.e. you will get 500 winners and 500 losers, on 800 bets i offer a price of 2.00, on 200 bets i offer a price of 2.25, you bet on all 1000 bets. Please explain how you do not make a profit ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Sorry, I've understood you offering only 200 somehow pre-selected bets: "I'm beginning to really like ChrisB and because of that every 5th bet i'm going to offer him odds of 2.25 . So out of 1000 bets 200 are offered at 2.25. Great, ChrisB bets on all of them and makes a very tidy profit. After all 200 of them have odds above average and therefore result in profit." Sorry again, I am not a native english. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? We'll get to the 200 only, but first ChrisB needs to get there's is a mathematical certainty you make a profit if you bet on all 1000. Or explain why you don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? I present you with 1000 bets, you know the strike rate is 50%, i.e. you will get 500 winners and 500 losers, on 800 bets i offer a price of 2.00, on 200 bets i offer a price of 2.25, you bet on all 1000 bets. Oh yes, definetely, I dont know about Chris, but in that case YES I'll take it! Where should I transfer the money?:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? WOW, hang on one moment, back up them horses. I present you with 1000 bets, you know the strike rate is 50%, i.e. you will get 500 winners and 500 losers, on 800 bets i offer a price of 2.00, on 200 bets i offer a price of 2.25, you bet on all 1000 bets. Please explain how you do not make a profit ? If I can join the discussion :D Maybe I missed something but I need to ask! When U are saying 1000bets, 800 @2 and [email protected]... U mean on 1000bets which opening odds is @2...or ...? Sorry if my question is silly :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? betting-palace, in the presented scenario there is no timeframe yet, it's exactly as stated, you are offered 800 x 2.00 and 200 x 2.25, you bet on all 1000 right away at those odds, do you make a profit, and is that a certainty ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? betting-palace, in the presented scenario there is no timeframe yet, it's exactly as stated, you are offered 800 x 2.00 and 200 x 2.25, you bet on all 1000 right away at those odds, do you make a profit, and is that a certainty ? and where 50% strike rate dissapeared? are u cheeting us, datapunter???:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? It hasn't changed, still the same scenario. Still 500 bets at 1.66, 500 bets at 2.50, totally random distribution into a group of 1000, strike rate 50%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? datapunter, are you agree with horse racing study ? ok , we forgot my 2.25 error... it would be nice to advance in the debate to compare our point of view (mulkis scenario) and the point of view of datapunter. personnaly, i respect those 2 points of view. i must admit that it's hard for me to understand why bookmakers do not offers odds that are closers to fair odds. i think also mulkis has proved otherwise with his table. now why table of mulkis would be wrong ? we are here to advance and find a solution for "fair odds" come on guys ! more participations please . thank you. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? It hasn't changed, still the same scenario. Still 500 bets at 1.66, 500 bets at 2.50, totally random distribution into a group of 1000, strike rate 50%. Then please proceed! I am eager to get my winnigs from your proposal! EDIT: and wait a minute, what a sh..t? Where my promissed odds of 2.00 and 2.25 dissapeared? Could you please be more consistent with the conditions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? ChrisB, please stop and listen for 2 seconds, i have already explained numerous times why it is flawed but you just don't listen. Simply answer the question. If i don't know if you agree or not i can't move to the next step. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? ChrisB, please stop and listen for 2 seconds, i have already explained numerous times why it is flawed but you just don't listen. Simply answer the question. If i don't know if you agree or not i can't move to the next step. Chris, please answer him... Its getting really boring... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? ok, i bet 400 times @ 1.66 . strike rate = 60% , 10u/bet = - 41.6 i bet 400 times @ 2.50. strike rate = 40% , 10u/bet = 40 total with strike rate 50% and odd at 2.00 is -0.4 units datapunter, you are effectively right... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? That question was ages ago, but i'm glad you got there in the end. Now we're still on this: The scenario is still the same: Quote: What i did was i took 500 bets with an expectation of 40% translated in "fair odds" of 2.50 Then i took 500 bets with an expectation of 60% translates in "fair odds" of 1.66 And then i mixed them all up completely randomly. If you bet on all 1000 bets at odds of 2.00 you will break even at the end. Therefore the odds of 2.00 are COMPLETELY ACCURATE..... on average. But here's the key: they are only accurate if you actually bet on all 1000 bets. As soon as you bet on a sub-group the accuracy is no longer valid. When you bet at odds of 2.00 when the odds should actually be 2.50 you will end up making a loss. But as you also bet at 2.00 on each bet where the odds should be 1.66 that profit compensates the loss made on the 2.50 ones. So on average the numbers add up perfectly. I'm beginning to really like ChrisB and because of that every 5th bet i'm going to offer him odds of 2.25 . So out of 1000 bets 200 are offered at 2.25. Great, ChrisB bets on all of them and makes a very tidy profit. After all 200 of them have odds above average and therefore result in profit. ChrisB, you agree you make a profit ? datapunter, with your scenario, i will not make profit. I present you with 1000 bets, you know the strike rate is 50%, i.e. you will get 500 winners and 500 losers, on 800 bets i offer a price of 2.00, on 200 bets i offer a price of 2.25, you bet on all 1000 bets. Please explain how you do not make a profit ? Either you do agree you will make a profit and it is certain you make a profit, or explain why you think you won't make a profit or it is not certain you make a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? with 10u/bets 800 bets @ 2.00 with 50% sr = 0u 200 bets @ 2.25 with 50% sr = 25 u i answered for your scenarios. and for the moment, no mistake. we can continue for the next step :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Ok, so now you do agree there is profit and it is certain there is profit, now we come to the key question, the one this whole thread is about, Guys, please let ChrisB answer this one first, he needs to be clear in his own mind about it. Still same scenario, I present you with 1000 bets, 500 have fair odds of 1.66, 500 have fair odds of 2.50, they are distributed in the group of 1000 completely random, you know the strike rate is 50%, on 800 bets i offer a price of 2.00, on 200 bets i offer a price of 2.25, On this occasion you decide to ignore the 800 bets that are offered at 2.00, and you decide to bet ONLY on the 200 ones offered at 2.25. So the average of the group of 1000 is still 2.00 and it is completely accurate as you get a strike rate of 50% when you bet on all 1000. The 200 you bet on have odds of 2.25 which is above that average. Do you make a profit on those 200 ? and is it certain you make a profit ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? We all waiting for Chris to answer, but may I just clarify: this 50% strike rate is it just for the whole group of 1000 or is it valid for these 200 as well? Sorry, for interrupting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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