Weightings & Optimization

[AndrewKent]

Hi guys, I've been busy working on improving a number of betting systems using Excel/Access/VBA. I've got a pretty comprehensive database and program that works really well and I am now starting to see profit appearing from my work. As rewarding as this is, the ROI is only between 5%-6% and I am sure I can get more out of this. The systems I am finding most accurate apply weightings to match characteristics and with my program, I have built a looping routine that will run analysis on a number of scenarios. Each scenario applies a different weighting to the match characteristics (goals, shots ect) allowing me to see which combination works best. The issue I am having is although I have a base system (Xpts for a Home Goal, Ypts for an Away Goal ect ect) I am not sure how best to optimize this. Which weightings should I increase/decrease, how should I know which ones to touch and which ones to leave alone? At the moment I'm randomly applying different weightings but there MUST be a logical way to do this. Any advice? Andy

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Weightings & Optimization Back test against your data to test which weightings give you the best profit