Breaking the goals galore mathematics

[uknowsit]

Hi all, I’m sure many of you have heard of – if not played the various forms of goals galore – (each team to score) in existence with most bookmakers nowadays. I‘ve found and read some interesting online articles over the past few months which have helped my analysis. With Betfred all odds are fixed at 1.80 (although they do rather cheekily remove high scoring teams from the list sometimes – Peterborough for instance). Now while I realise that much research must’ve gone into the market to offer the fixed price of 1.80, I’m wondering what the best way to maximise value is (if indeed there is one). I’ve been looking at data I have collaborated over the past few months (I did have another thread started which hasn’t had the responses I had hoped) in respect to goals galore. I think with the aid of my formula I can accurately predict games where both teams will score 52.6% of the time, and with some fine tuning (less selections) I can get this up to 54.05% I am only focusing on the 4 professional English leagues here, and over the years it has shown that if you “randomly” select games where both teams will score you have around a 50.2% chance of picking a winner. Of course, 50.2% equates to odds of 1.99, 52.6% equates to 1.90 and 54.05 equates to 1.85 – still not near the 1.80 (55.6%) offered by the bookie. So my question is: With a negative value expectation, is there anyway to turn my 54.0% success rate into a profitable selection process while odds of 1.80 are being offered? Would I reduce this deficit by backing multiples? (as far as I know singles aren’t available anyway)

[v-zero]

Re: Breaking the goals galore mathematics

Hi all, I’m sure many of you have heard of – if not played the various forms of goals galore – (each team to score) in existence with most bookmakers nowadays. I‘ve found and read some interesting online articles over the past few months which have helped my analysis. With Betfred all odds are fixed at 1.80 (although they do rather cheekily remove high scoring teams from the list sometimes – Peterborough for instance). Now while I realise that much research must’ve gone into the market to offer the fixed price of 1.80, I’m wondering what the best way to maximise value is (if indeed there is one). I’ve been looking at data I have collaborated over the past few months (I did have another thread started which hasn’t had the responses I had hoped) in respect to goals galore. I think with the aid of my formula I can accurately predict games where both teams will score 52.6% of the time, and with some fine tuning (less selections) I can get this up to 54.05% I am only focusing on the 4 professional English leagues here, and over the years it has shown that if you “randomly” select games where both teams will score you have around a 50.2% chance of picking a winner. Of course, 50.2% equates to odds of 1.99, 52.6% equates to 1.90 and 54.05 equates to 1.85 – still not near the 1.80 (55.6%) offered by the bookie. So my question is: With a negative value expectation, is there anyway to turn my 54.0% success rate into a profitable selection process while odds of 1.80 are being offered? Would I reduce this deficit by backing multiples? (as far as I know singles aren’t available anyway)

There is no way to permanently overcome the negative expectation, sorry.

[Outlaw_Hood]

Re: Breaking the goals galore mathematics Its mainly luck but i use multiple sets of data to analyse the games and i am not far off a large amount week in week out, i would say 4 or 5 goals off bagging a glory hunters bet

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Breaking the goals galore mathematics Combining into multiples would only multiply the bookmakers edge. Although this is a popular Market it isnt a particularly fair one in my experience. There can be significant variance between bookmakers in this Market so might be worth seeing if you could get an edge by shopping around for better odds.