UsManyDead Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System One start match for tomorrow: FRANCE: Ligue 1 Odd O2,5 Odd O3,5 20:00 FC Lorient - SM Caen @ 2.25 4.05 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System The only matches qualifying are from Saturday, so here they are. Saturday Selections: MATCH Odd ISRAEL: Toto League 18:00 Hapoel Beer Sheva - Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin @ 2.30 19:00 Maccabi Netanya - Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona @ 2.27 SCOTLAND: Premier League 15:00 Heart of Midlothian - FC Motherwell @ 2.30 15:30 Dunfermline - St Johnstone @ 2.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Really unfortunate with the last "Star" Selection, which ended in the worst possible way (Nil - Nil) :(. Star Matches: Match - O 2,5 O 3,5 Result Result - Score SPAIN: Liga Adelante 19:00 Girona - Guadalajara @ 2.33 4.25 UNDER UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 0 ITALY: Serie B 16:00 Gubbio - Padova @ 2.29 4.33 UNDER UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 ITALY: Serie A 16:00 Bologna - AC Milan @ 2.13 4.00 OVER OVER FinalScore: 2 - 2 ENGLAND: League Two 17:00 Port Vale - Aldershot Town @ 2.07 3.75 OVER OVER FinalScore: 4 - 0 FRANCE: Ligue 1 20:00 FC Lorient - SM Caen @ 2.25 4.05 UNDER UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 0 Over 2,5 Goals --- Week All: Star-ed matches Profit/Loss: -80 Units Units Staked: 500 Units Nr. Selections: 5 Won Selections: 2 Lost Selections: 3 H/R: 40,000% Yield: -16,000% Over 3,5 Goals --- Week All: Star-ed matches Profit/Loss: +275 Units Units Staked: 500 Units Nr. Selections: 5 Won Selections: 2 Lost Selections: 3 H/R: 40,000% Yield: +55,000% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Merry Christmas Everyone!!! I'm gonna see you next week-end. So I'm expected to post the results then. Until then have fun, be with your friends and family, and enjoy the Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Thank you for your kind wishes, UMD...... I hope you have a great holiday :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System I hope you have a great holiday :cheers Thank you...I did have a great holiday, still more to come :loon Ok, so going back to the system. This week I had some more time to put in order all the ideas I had and all the statistics I scan for. Some cut-off criteria pop-ed up, and with a little bit of more hard work from my side, I've managed to correlate a new form for my system. I'll stick to this one until the end of the year, and then start posting the selections from my new system. I know that this seems a little out of place, but as I said there will be changes as I try to improve my system and also cut down some selections. I think I've got the new system pretty well put up together. There will be a few new rules for the system: -the starting bank will be the same: 4000 Units; -the staking plan will change as I will bet more on those matches I fell more sure. The base will be 100 Units and it will increase (100 by 100) as I feel more sure - this way I feel I can take more advantage; -there will be selections for the whole week; -I will bet also on O3,5 Goals and O1,5 Goals at HT. Using the new cut-off criteria I managed to cut down the matches from ~743 to ~145, thus increasing the S/R and the yield. But using the above stake plan, for the 145 matches it would like I would've bet for ~300 matches, so still a more than half cut from the risking money. I feel more confident about this system, and I feel like I can't do anything more to it....but knowing me, I'll probably still try :loon I will also open a new thread for Home Draw Away matches, which is a derived system from my original one. Let's hope I can keep up with both of them :D. The new thread will be opened next year. :loon There were no selections for tomorrow, so enjoy eating the cookies...;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Last Saturday Results: Match - Odd Result - Score ISRAEL: Toto League 18:00 Hapoel Beer Sheva - Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin @ 2.30 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 2 19:00 Maccabi Netanya - Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona @ 2.27 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 1 SCOTLAND: Premier League 15:00 Heart of Midlothian - FC Motherwell @ 2.30 UNDER FinalScore: 2 - 0 15:30 Dunfermline - St Johnstone @ 2.20 OVER FinalScore: 0 - 3 Profit/Loss Day: -180 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Over 2,5 Goals --- Week 8: Week-end Only Profit/Loss: -180 Units Units Staked: 400 Units Nr. Selections: 4 Won Selections: 1 Lost Selections: 3 H/R: 25,000% Yield: -45,000% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Good luck with your re-vamped system, UMD :hope Can't help feeling you may have fallen into the trap of "force-fitting", with too many variables and too many cut-off criteria..... prove me wrong, please :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Good luck with your re-vamped system, UMD :hope Can't help feeling you may have fallen into the trap of "force-fitting", with too many variables and too many cut-off criteria..... prove me wrong, please :ok I'm aware of this big mistake and did everything possible not to force-fit, some might be, but most aren't. We'll see how it's gonna work. Anyway the 1st Half O1,5 Goals gave a good return and also the O2,5 Goals. Strangely enough the O3,5 Goals don't bring a bigger profit than the O2,5 but it's still good enough. This thing makes me think that the criteria I've looked for and merged together does a great thing to find those with O2,5 Goals, but those matches might have the maximum chance of going O2,5 and only a few of them go O3,5. Anyway I still have some time so I'll look once again over them. But I'm very confident about this one. At least I've managed to use the statistics I've collected and thought they have a big part in finding the U/O. Besides all these statistics, I don't know if there are more that can influence the final result. The only thing I would need is a good system that can calculate the actual chance of Home Draw Away results, because the most of the matches that finished UNDER were because the Underdog won, and of course they can't win at high score. It usually was the away team that was clearly an underdog. But these are maybe those surprises that are impossible to predict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Saturday Selections: MATCH - Odd ENGLAND: Championship 15:00 Barnsley - Leeds United @ 1.91 15:00 Watford - Doncaster Rovers @ 2.22 ENGLAND: League One 15:00 Walsall - Rochdale @ 2.15 15:00 Colchester United - Exeter @ 1.94 ENGLAND: League Two 15:00 Morecambe - Burton Albion @ 1.97 17:00 Bradford City - Shrewsbury Town @ 2.19 ISRAEL: Toto League 17:30 Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin - Maccabi Tel Aviv @ 2.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Sunday Selections: MATCH - Odd ENGLAND: Conference 17:00 Grimsby Town - Lincoln City @ 2.00 17:00 Forest Green Rovers - Kidderminster Harriers @ 1.93 17:00 Kettering Town - Luton Town @ 2.02 Well this is all for this year. A new and prosperous year is in front of us. So I will start with the new system from the start of the new year. Since the system is capable of selecting also matches from the week, there is a chance that there will be a few on monday. HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System So here comes my first selections from the new system. Until now I haven't decided if I should fluctuate the stake also on O3,5 and O1,5 but, as soon as I make my mind I'll post. So for the time being only on O2,5 the amount will fluctuate, the rest will be 100 Units each. Today all have the same level. Monday Selections: (System V2.0) MATCH Stake - Odd O2,5 Odd O3,5 Odd O1,5 ENGLAND: League One 17:00 Sheffield Wednesday - Tranmere Rovers 200 @ 1.95 3.40 3.00 SCOTLAND: First Division 17:00 Livingston - Falkirk 200 @ 1.91 3.25 2.90 SCOTLAND: Third Division 17:00 Clyde FC - Queens Park 200 @ 2.09 3.75 3.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Hey UsManyDead, Thanks for your help on my thread, just came across yours now so have subscribed. Best of luck with the v2.0, will be following with great interest!! All the best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Thank you. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Saturday Results: Match - Odd Result - Score ENGLAND: Championship 15:00 Barnsley - Leeds United @ 1.92 OVER FinalScore: 4 - 1 15:00 Watford - Doncaster Rovers @ 2.22 OVER FinalScore: 4 - 1 ENGLAND: League One 15:00 Walsall - Rochdale @ 2.15 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 0 15:00 Colchester United - Exeter @ 1.94 UNDER FinalScore: 2 - 0 ENGLAND: League Two 15:00 Morecambe - Burton Albion @ 1.97 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 2 17:00 Bradford City - Shrewsbury Town @ 2.19 OVER FinalScore: 3 - 1 ISRAEL: Toto League 17:30 Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin - Maccabi Tel Aviv @ 2.15 OVER FinalScore: 1 - 3 Profit/Loss Day: +345 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Sunday Results: Match - Odd Result - Score ENGLAND: Conference 17:00 Grimsby Town - Lincoln City @ 2.00 OVER FinalScore: 3 - 1 17:00 Forest Green Rovers - Kidderminster Harriers @ 1.93 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 1 17:00 Kettering Town - Luton Town @ 2.02 OVER FinalScore: 0 - 5 Profit/Loss Day: +102 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Over 2,5 Goals --- Week 9: Week-end Only Profit/Loss: +447 Units Units Staked: 1000 Units Nr. Selections: 10 Won Selections: 7 Lost Selections: 3 H/R: 70,000% Yield: +44,700% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 All 10 Weeks Over 2,5 Goals: Week-ends Only - System V1.0 End Profit/Loss: +2528 Units Units Staked: 40600 Units Nr. Selections: 406 Won Selections: 198 Lost Selections: 208 H/R: 48,768% Yield: +6,227% Not to bad, but not exactly what I was expecting. I wanted at least 10% yield. Anyway, I think the system is good still. Here are the actual figures taking into consideration also the matches that I've missed and mentioned after - the actual result of the system. All 10 Weeks Over 2,5 Goals: Week-ends Only - System V1.0 End Profit/Loss: +2463 Units Units Staked: 40600 Units Nr. Selections: 410 Won Selections: 200 Lost Selections: 210 H/R: 48,780% Yield: +6,007% This is the END of System V1.0. At least the last week-end was also profitable :loon Now let's see how V2.0 does. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System So here comes my first selections from the new system. Until now I haven't decided if I should fluctuate the stake also on O3,5 and O1,5 but, as soon as I make my mind I'll post. So for the time being only on O2,5 the amount will fluctuate, the rest will be 100 Units each. Today all have the same level. Monday Selections: (System V2.0) MATCH Stake - Odd O2,5 Odd O3,5 Odd O1,5 ENGLAND: League One 17:00 Sheffield Wednesday - Tranmere Rovers 100 @ 1.95 3.40 3.00 SCOTLAND: First Division 17:00 Livingston - Falkirk 300 @ 1.91 3.25 2.90 SCOTLAND: Third Division 17:00 Clyde FC - Queens Park 300 @ 2.09 3.75 3.25 Ok, I've decided. There will be the same amount bet on all categories O2,5; O3,5 and O1,5 HT. I've just rechecked the staking plan and there are some changes. The matches are the same, but the stakes change. I've made the changes in the above table. The same amount for all 3 categories. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Tuesday Selections: MATCH Stake - Odd O2,5 Odd O3,5 Odd O1,5 20:30 Mersin Idman Yurdu - Ankaragücü 100 @ 2.25 4.20 3.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Hi, UMD and good luck with Version 2.0. :ok It would be useful to include the league for each selection..... I assume Tuesday's selection is for Turkey.... but which division ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Hi' date= UMD and good luck with Version 2.0. :ok It would be useful to include the league for each selection..... I assume Tuesday's selection is for Turkey.... but which division ? Sorry, I didn't notice, but I think I might cut it off during the pre-formalize process. You know I always put these on ;) The match is from: TURKEY: Turkcell Super League Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Monday Selections: MATCH Stake Odd O2,5 Odd O3,5 ResultO2,5 ResultO3,5 HT Score FT Score Odd O1,5 ENGLAND: League One 17:00 Sheffield Wednesday - Tranmere Rovers 100 1.95 3.40 OVER UNDER 2 - 0 2 - 1 3.00 SCOTLAND: First Division 17:00 Livingston - Falkirk 300 1.91 3.25 OVER UNDER 0 - 1 1 - 2 2.90 SCOTLAND: Third Division 17:00 Clyde FC - Queens Park 300 2.09 3.75 OVER UNDER 1 - 1 1 - 2 3.25 A bit unlucky with the O3,5 G, but a very good day nonetheless with all 3 coming at O2,5 and 2 at O1,5 G at HT. :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 I'll post the statistics per week. Let's hope tomorrow will also be a good day. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Nothing qualifies for Wednesday, but there are some matches from IRAN that don't have odds yet, although I don't think any of them will get odds higher or equal to 1.90, but will see. When the odds are available I'll check to see if they qualify and then post them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Good luck with your system, UMD. I have a question for you, and i don't read all your posts. You use Poisson for your picks ? I asked you because i think to make a connection between my rating system, based on ELO, and Poisson. What's your opinion ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Tuesday Results: MATCH Stake Odd O2,5 Odd O3,5 Result O2,5 Result O3,5 HT Score FT Score Odd O1,5 TURKEY: Turkcell Super League 20:30 Mersin Idman Yurdu - Ankaragücü 100 2.25 4.20 OVER UNDER 0 - 1 1 - 2 3.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Good luck with your system, UMD. I have a question for you, and i don't read all your posts. You use Poisson for your picks ? I asked you because i think to make a connection between my rating system, based on ELO, and Poisson. What's your opinion ? No I don't use it. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Nothing for Thursday also, but soon comes the week-end and there are a little more matches from which my system to choose. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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