marockee Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Bolton-Villa? hmm...no way...that's deviation :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System One star-ed match for tomorrow, also: ITALY: Serie A 16:00 Bologna - AC Milan @ 2.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Bolton-Villa? hmm...no way...that's deviation :) What do you mean by that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marockee Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System well, looking purely by stats it should be over, but I give it less than 50% chance to be goalastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System well' date=' looking purely by stats it should be over, but I give it less than 50% chance to be goalastic[/quote'] I understand your point of view, but my system does not predict what it will happen: either OVER/UNDER. Instead my system look for value, and if there is then the match is a selection, otherwise it won't be. Until now, as you've seen, it does well. So when I put the matches up this means they have value in their odds, and off course a good chance to go OVER. It seems that the value pays for it self. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Friday Results: Match - Odd Result - Score COLOMBIA: Liga Postobon 00:30 Millonarios - Envigado @ 2.20 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 1 IRAN: Premier League 13:30 Moghavemat - Shahrdari Tabriz @ 2.14 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 1 Profit/Loss Day: +234 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bettor6 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System It seems that the value pays for it self. I have looked at your selections and the problem is that you put too much importance in team`s goals history, that is why this system is going to end badly. Good luck anyway, you will need it ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System If you do not consider a team"s goal history, i.e. past results , how do you evaluate the chances of over 2.5.?:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bettor6 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System If you do not consider a team"s goal history, i.e. past results , how do you evaluate the chances of over 2.5.?:unsure It is more or less calculated by comparing the actual strength of teams and besides you need to calculate goal expectation correctly. The importance of each team`s goal history is fairly low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klatzen Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Could I in anyway convince you to give me your email ? :) .. I have a couple of questions I would like to ask you :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System I have looked at your selections and the problem is that you put too much importance in team`s goals history, that is why this system is going to end badly. Good luck anyway, you will need it ;) I understand your point of view, and yes the goals does matter, but the system is a little more than this. I can't agree with you that the system is going to end bad. In 12 weeks (since I started the system) I haven't seen a week-end in loss. And although this is beautiful, the loss will come. Every system has his downs and ups, but the fundamental idea is the ups to be more that the downs. So please refrain from making such affirmations, unless you have a clear proof. If this is you opinion, I understand it and don't have anything against it, but state clearly that this is what you think. Don't state as if you already know the end. Are we good we that? :ok It is more or less calculated by comparing the actual strength of teams and besides you need to calculate goal expectation correctly. The importance of each team`s goal history is fairly low. I can't agree with you here. You can't calculate how many goals will come by comparing the strength of the two teams. This one also relies on past performance and can alter also. But the fact that team 1 has more power than team 2 doesn't mean in any way that this will be OVER, and I have plenty examples for my support. Also when this is the case, the Bookmakers give a lot less value on the odds for OVER, only because of this fact. It is true that,if you were able to calculate the actual goal expectation then you'd have a great system. But for this to actual happen then you'd have to take into consideration a lot of factors, and try to correlate them in a system, which is pretty hard, since every country/league have their surprises and own strategy (more different on each teams). So you'd have to look on each team. Anyway, I do believe in my system and besides this one I've managed to make others that take a different look. I'll see which one does better. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Could I in anyway convince you to give me your email ? :) .. I have a couple of questions I would like to ask you :) Hy. You can ask them in here. I'll get back to you as soon as possible. If not, the I'll send you my e-mail through a private msg, but later because now I gotta go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klatzen Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Hy. You can ask them in here. I'll get back to you as soon as possible. If not, the I'll send you my e-mail through a private msg, but later because now I gotta go. Well I think it's best to take over private msg, or email m8 :) .. so if you have the time, sometime, then pm me back ;) .. ps. Nice Thread! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Over 2,5 Goals --- Week 7: Week-end Only Profit/Loss: +186 Units Units Staked: 5300 Units Nr. Selections: 53 Won Selections: 25 Lost Selections: 28 H/R: 47,170% Yield: +3,509% Finally the results are correct. The week wasn't a high profitable one, but it was a profit none the less. I am really amazed that after 13 week-ends I haven't seen a loss one. Maybe it's the next one.....that's what I'm keep thinking on :rollin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Over 2,5 Goals --- Week All: Star-ed matches Profit/Loss: -87 Units Units Staked: 300 Units Nr. Selections: 3 Won Selections: 1 Lost Selections: 2 H/R: 33,333% Yield: -29,000% Well until now I thought that I've made the cut-off criteria for odds on these matches, but it seems that the 2.30 limit was maybe to high. Looking back the highest odds won were 2.25 (two of them), others like 2.40, 2.50 didn't come out - that's why I put the limit at 2.30. So from now on I'll take them at Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System well' date=' looking purely by stats it should be over, but I give it less than 50% chance to be goalastic[/quote'] Well it seemed that value once again payed for itself, as the game ended 1 - 2, so over. I'm not trying to start anything ;). I'm just glad that my system got it right ;). :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Friday Selections: MATCH Odd BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League 21:30 Cercle Brugge - AA Gent @ 2.07 CYPRUS: 1st Division 18:00 Anagennisi Derynia - Olympiakos Nicosia @ 2.15 ENGLAND: League Two 21:45 Barnet - Cheltenham Town @ 2.01 FRANCE: Ligue 3 21:00 Nimes Olympique - Creteil @ 2.03 21:00 Martigues - US Luzenac @ 2.17 GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga 19:00 Fortuna Dusseldorf - SC Paderborn 07 @ 1.93 19:00 FC Erzgebirge Aue - FC Ingolstadt 04 @ 2.15 ROMANIA: Liga 1 20:30 Gaz Metan Medias - FC Brasov @ 2.56 SOUTH AFRICA: Premier League 18:00 SuperSport United - Mamelodi Sundowns @ 2.10 There might be some additions since matches from France: National, IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA had to few bookmakers offering odds. I'll later tonight maybe there will be others who will offer value. If something pops up, I'll post them here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System I overslept....:wall. So there were 2 matches that qualified: one from IRAN and one from SAUDI ARABIA and both lost. I'll write this details when I write the total for this week. Sry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Saturday Selections: MATCH - Odd BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League 21:00 VC Westerlo - Germinal Beerschot Antwerp @ 1.99 ENGLAND: League Two 17:00 Port Vale - Aldershot Town @ 2.07 ENGLAND: Premier League 17:00 Fulham FC - Bolton Wanderers @ 1.93 17:00 Wolverhampton Wanderers - Stoke City @ 2.09 FRANCE: Ligue 1 20:00 Montpellier HSC - Toulouse @ 2.25 20:00 Stade Brest - Auxerre @ 2.36 GERMANY: 3. Liga 15:00 SpVgg Unterhaching - Preußen Münster @ 2.00 IRAN: Premier League 14:45 Naft Tehran - Esteghlal @ 2.05 ISRAEL: Toto League 18:00 Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin - Hapoel Rishon Letzion @ 1.96 ITALY: Serie A 21:45 Fiorentina - Atalanta @ 2.24 ITALY: Serie B 16:00 Reggina - Sassuolo @ 2.47 16:00 FC Empoli - US Grosseto @ 2.32 16:00 Crotone - AS Ascoli @ 2.50 16:00 Albinoleffe - Gubbio @ 2.25 PORTUGAL: Liga Zon Sagres 20:15 Vitoria Guimaraes - Gil Vicente @ 2.22 ROMANIA: Liga 1 20:30 FCM Targu Mures - Dinamo Bucharest @ 2.20 SCOTLAND: First Division 17:00 Hamilton Academical - Morton @ 2.25 17:00 Partick Thistle - Raith @ 2.11 17:00 Ross County - FC Dundee @ 2.09 SCOTLAND: Premier League 14:30 FC Aberdeen - Hibernian @ 2.14 17:00 FC Kilmarnock - Dundee United @ 2.10 SCOTLAND: Third Division 17:00 Montrose - Queens Park @ 1.92 17:00 Elgin City - Annan Athletic @ 2.00 SOUTH AFRICA: Premier League 18:00 Golden Arrows - Ajax Cape Town @ 2.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System One star match for tomorrow: ENGLAND: League Two 17:00 Port Vale - Aldershot Town @ 2.07 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Sunday Selections: MATCH - Odd BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League 21:30 Cercle Brugge - AA Gent @ 2.07 FRANCE: Ligue 1 18:00 AC Ajaccio - Stade Rennais @ 2.05 GERMANY: Bundesliga 18:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach - FSV Mainz 05 @ 2.01 GREECE: Super League 17:15 Atromitos Athinon - AEK Athens @ 2.44 17:15 Aris - Panaitolikos * @ 2.41 PORTUGAL: Liga Vitalis 17:00 Oliveirense - Leixoes @ 2.25 17:00 Freamunde - Portimonense @ 2.37 18:00 U. Madeira - Naval @ 2.41 PORTUGAL: Liga Zon Sagres 18:00 Nacional - Vitoria Setubal @ 2.31 ROMANIA: Liga 1 16:00 Pandurii Tg. Jiu - Ceahlaul Piatra Neams @ 2.40 SPAIN: Liga Adelante 20:45 UD Almeria - Sabadell @ 2.04 TURKEY: TFF 1. League 13:30 TKI Tavsanli Linyitspor - Kasimpasa @ 2.15 TURKEY: Turkcell Super League 13:00 IST Buyuksehirspor Bld - Sivasspor @ 2.18 13:00 Vestel Manisaspor - Genclerbirligi @ 2.38 VENEZUELA: Primera Division 22:30 Yaracuyanos - Tucanes @ 2.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System The match from BELGIUM is the match from Friday that was postponed. It passed more than 24h since then, so I don't know if it will still be a selection, because he won't be available at those odds again. Maybe someone who dealt with these kind of problems could help here. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Friday Results: Match - Odd Result - Score BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League 21:30 Cercle Brugge - AA Gent @ 2.07 Postponed CYPRUS: 1st Division 18:00 Anagennisi Derynia - Olympiakos Nicosia @ 2.15 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 1 ENGLAND: League Two 21:45 Barnet - Cheltenham Town @ 2.01 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 2 FRANCE: Ligue 3 * 21:00 Nimes Olympique - Creteil @ 2.03 OVER FinalScore: 3 - 3 21:00 Martigues - US Luzenac @ 2.17 OVER FinalScore: 0 - 3 GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga 19:00 Fortuna Dusseldorf - SC Paderborn 07 @ 1.93 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 3 19:00 FC Erzgebirge Aue - FC Ingolstadt 04 @ 2.15 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 1 ROMANIA: Liga 1 20:30 Gaz Metan Medias - FC Brasov @ 2.56 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 1 SOUTH AFRICA: Premier League 18:00 SuperSport United - Mamelodi Sundowns @ 2.10 OVER FinalScore: 1 - 3 Profit/Loss Day: +224 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Sunday Results: Match - Odd Result - Score BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League 21:30 Cercle Brugge - AA Gent @ 2.07 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 1 FRANCE: Ligue 1 18:00 AC Ajaccio - Stade Rennais @ 2.05 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 GERMANY: Bundesliga 18:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach - FSV Mainz 05 @ 2.01 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 GREECE: Super League 17:15 Atromitos Athinon - AEK Athens @ 2.44 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 17:15 Aris - Panaitolikos @ 2.41 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 0 PORTUGAL: Liga Vitalis 17:00 Oliveirense - Leixoes @ 2.25 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 4 17:00 Freamunde - Portimonense @ 2.37 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 2 18:00 U. Madeira - Naval @ 2.41 OVER FinalScore: 1 - 3 PORTUGAL: Liga Zon Sagres 18:00 Nacional - Vitoria Setubal @ 2.31 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 1 ROMANIA: Liga 1 16:00 Pandurii Tg. Jiu - Ceahlaul Piatra Neams @ 2.40 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 1 SPAIN: Liga Adelante 20:45 UD Almeria - Sabadell @ 2.04 OVER FinalScore: 3 - 0 TURKEY: TFF 1. League 13:30 TKI Tavsanli Linyitspor - Kasimpasa @ 2.15 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 1 TURKEY: Turkcell Super League 13:00 IST Buyuksehirspor Bld - Sivasspor @ 2.18 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 1 13:00 Vestel Manisaspor - Genclerbirligi @ 2.38 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 1 VENEZUELA: Primera Division 22:30 Yaracuyanos - Tucanes @ 2.02 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 3 Profit/Loss Day: -391 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Over 2,5 Goals --- Week 7: Week-end Only Profit/Loss: -746 Units Units Staked: 4400 Units Nr. Selections: 44 Won Selections: 17 Lost Selections: 27 H/R: 38,636% Yield: -16,955%- Once again the results aren't correct :(, because there were 2 more selections on Friday that lost. The actual loss would be: -946 Units and the actual yield: -20,565%. So after a good run the system hits the red zone. This thing had to come. Besides this I am happy that my start match won on 2,5 and 3,5 boundaries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Star Matches: Match - O 2,5 O 3,5 Result Result - Score SPAIN: Liga Adelante 19:00 Girona - Guadalajara * @ 2.33 4.25 UNDER UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 0 ITALY: Serie B 16:00 Gubbio - Padova * @ 2.29 4.33 UNDER UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 ITALY: Serie A 16:00 Bologna - AC Milan * @ 2.13 4.00 OVER OVER FinalScore: 2 - 2 ENGLAND: League Two 17:00 Port Vale - Aldershot Town * @ 2.07 3.75 OVER OVER FinalScore: 4 - 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Over 2,5 Goals --- Week All: Star-ed matches Profit/Loss: +20 Units Units Staked: 400 Units Nr. Selections: 4 Won Selections: 2 Lost Selections: 2 H/R: 50,000% Yield: +5,000% Over 3,5 Goals --- Week All: Star-ed matches Profit/Loss: +375 Units Units Staked: 400 Units Nr. Selections: 4 Won Selections: 2 Lost Selections: 2 H/R: 50,000% Yield: +93,750% :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System I'm currently trying to change my system, using a new cut-off criteria I've found 2 days ago. So now I'm going back to see what the performance was. This new cut-off criteria may enable me to get matches for the whole week and also reduce the number to an approximate number of 20 selections/week, which is good, because the strike rate increases to aprox. 55% and so does the yield. I have a few more weeks from the past to analyze and the I'll post here my findings. Let's hope I find something useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System :ok (what else can I say ^^) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System Well, that's what I hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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