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NFL Week 17

thephysician
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thephysician

thephysician

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Only had the Steelers to cover the spread this week. Which was nice when they did. Tried to follow TazaD's pointspread, but everything had been teased out the extra point or two so left it... Had a look around to see what's there: Detroit Lions @ Tennessee Titans, Lions -3 I'm always hopeful with the Lions, but there's been a couple of good signs towards the end of the season (and some luck too, but I'd rather be lucky than good). The Lions have something to build on, and a 7-9 record will be a okay return. The Titans though have lost 5 in a row and sit at 4-11 for the season. They've won against a bad lot (except a surprising win at Green Bay earlier on). McNair's still out. Think this one's one for the Lions to finish on a high. Under 45 points looks interesting as well. Green Bay @ Chicago, Green Bay +3 :loon What? Green Bay are play off bound, having won their division. While they can't improve their home game advatage much, I can't see why they are actually underdogs in this game. Only bet365 seem to have priced this game up so far on the sites I look at, but the Money Line at 2.35 seems attractive to me. It just doesn't seem Packers football to take their foot of the pedal. The Bears are miserable. Yes, they can defend, yes they won the away fixture, but they just can't score. Indianapolis @ Denver, Indy +9.5 I assume everyone thinks that Manning will sit this one out? Or at least relax now they've clinched the play off berth? Again, it doesn't strike me as a good idea for a team to relax THAT much, and I like the points I'm being given here. Money Line... not so much.

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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: NFL Week 17 Green Bay will rest starters like Atlanta and Philli did this week. Last week of the reg season is much like pre-season...Throw out the form guide and keep an eye/ear out for team news and rotations. How often in the past 3 years would the Lions have been road favs??...Guessing none...Wouldn't start backing them now. Might be a good week for some first quarter/first half bets ;)

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thephysician

thephysician

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Re: NFL Week 17

Green Bay will rest starters like Atlanta and Philli did this week. Last week of the reg season is much like pre-season...Throw out the form guide and keep an eye/ear out for team news and rotations. How often in the past 3 years would the Lions have been road favs??...Guessing none...Wouldn't start backing them now. Might be a good week for some first quarter/first half bets ;)
Hmm, yes true, but this season they can win on the road.... I'll ignore Green Bay, but will take the Lions and the Colts, I think. Cheers!
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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: NFL Week 17 Manning likely to play at least the whole first half....but will be without Pollard (TE) and the starting left Guard. They will also be without their 2 starting CB's (not that they're any good anyway!!:D) Thinking maybe a first half over?...@ 23 or less I think it's worth a shot. Got a long, long list that will have to get trimmed, but looking at....... Balti/Miami over 34 GB @ Chicago under 34 Carolina -7.5 NY/Dallas over 37.5 NY -3 Cinci -3 and/or under 41 Jets -3 and/or under 43 Min -4 and/or under 41.......Washington will be without Smoot, Portis or Arrington. SURELY Min can get a road win in the last half of the season!!... Waiting for news from Tennesee...If Volek is right to play then the over should be the ticket...can't play either side tho...esp if he's out.

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gazzyg

gazzyg

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Re: NFL Week 17 2 for me this week Pittsburgh (+9.5) 10/11 @ Buffalo.....Nooo way the Steelers are gonna lye down and take an ass whoopin' off anyone going into playoffs... like this a lot. No total on Oakland Jags game yet but will get involved in the under if its oooooo 37 or anything above can see this being a safety first punt fest.

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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: NFL Week 17 Rothlesburger likely out...Bettis out. No total on Jax game because both Leftwhich and Taylor both ??. Brave man to take on an 'under' in an Oakland game tho...Defense is HORRIBLE...now looks like both starting CB's will be out aswell. Oakland have only held an opponent under 20 ONCE all season!!...Allowing over 26 ppg @ home...and over 33 last 4 weeks. Green Bay @ Chicago under 34.5 (Hills) Chicago have scored 3, 5 and 15 in their last 3 games and have virtually zero offense. They av. 14 FD's/game...25.5% 3rd down conversion (NFL worst), 3.8 y/rush and another NFL worst 4.64 y/pass. This is a meaningless game for GB who should sleep walk through the game and be happy to come through with no injuries. The Chicago defense shut down the Packers last meeting winning 21-10. Can't see that many points this time around. Jets @ SL under 43.5 (365) Important game for both teams still, and the Jets will come out doing what they do best...running the football and playing tough D. Jets allow only 3.7 y/rush and 6.29 y/pass this season and have only allowed 20+ twice since wk. 2...allowing only 14.1 ppg on the road! The Greatest Show on Turf is officially dead and buried...They've scored over 25 only twice all season and av. only 19.1 ppg. Jets have scored 34, 17, 17, 7, 10 and 6 on the road this season. This one should go under easily at a nice number. Minni @ Washington under 41.5 (Cent) Crazy total for a Washington game! Only rwo Washington games have gone over this number this season...both being 42! Minnesota have only really played 2 good defensive teams so far, scoring 16 @ Philli and 14 @ Chicago...Now they fave the number 1 Run D (3.1 y/carry!!), 4th best pass D (5.75 y/pass) and allowing only 16.5 ppg! Washington av. only 14.6 ppg themselves and will really struggle to get any ball movement without Portis in the line-up...They av. only 3.7 y/rush and 4.98 y/pass as it is. Total is just too high for a Redskin game. Cleveland @ Houston under 39 (1.99 @ Pinnacle) Strange total to me that stood out the moment I saw it. Cleveland have scored 15, 7, 0 and 7 last 4 games and have packed it in for the season. Hollycombe is likely back starting this week, but it will be tough for him to jump stright back in and get this team moving. Houston, on the other hand, aer trying to finish the season strongly, and have really been talking up their defense all week. They have allowed 0 and 5 points in the last 2 weeks, and held Indi to 23 before that. Houston av. only 22.3 ppg at home themselves and have become more of a running team now with the emergence of Davis. Cleveland's defensive numbers still look pretty good, allowing only 6.45 y/pass and 4.3 y/rush. Houston will be keyed defensively for this game and Cleveland will just be happy when it's all over. Tampa Bay @ Arizona under 38 Both teams have very good pass D's...TB allowing only 164.3 y/game @ 6.15 y/pass, and Arizona 189 y/game @ 6.02 y/pass. There's every likelyhood that Simms will QB for TB at some point in the game (may even start if Griese not 100%), so they will struggle to score points on a Card's defense that has allowed only 7, 13, 14, 17, 10 and 23 points at home all season....Esp. when TB have av. only 17.5 ppg on the road against some much worse defenses than this one.

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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: NFL Week 17 Carolina -7.5 (1.95 @ Canbet) Carolina have scored big against bad defensive teams all season, but 37 last week @ TB and 31 @ Atlanta...now they're scoring big for fun! NO are still horrible defensively...A lot of people seem to be talking up their 'improving' D, but holding a second string Atlanta to 13 and a pop-gun, turn-over prone TB to 17 doesn't prove much at all to me. Panthers won 32-21 @ NO less than a month ago, and I can't see how much has changed since then. Caro 6-1 last 3 years when total 43-49...5-1 this season v. <.500 teams. philli under showed us last week what to expect...limited minutes for starters a limited passing game sans but still strong desire play d and limit opposition points. cinci have been putting up some scores this season not so much against good defensive teams...16 v. miami baltimore pits wash buff balt with late score. tough see scoring over kitna at qb. scored weeks like gb will just be happy when it they are injury free.>

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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: NFL Week 17 from the Colts perspective. Buffalo is red hot and a former division rival of the Colts. No one wants to play the Bills. The Broncos are ice cold and playing poorly on both sides of the ball. The Colts beat the Broncos (who had a better team last year) in Indianapolis for the first playoff game. If the Broncos beat the Colts here, There is a good chance the Broncos will have to play the Colts next week and the Colts will have more incentive. Bills or Broncos? NO CONTEST. The Colts WANT Denver to win here if at all possible. Good news for you Indi backers ;) .......(might join you!)

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Osesame

Osesame

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Re: NFL Week 17 I think that may be a rather difficult question to answer Rumlesen.I always feel that if you are following someone it is better if you take all the bets as singles.If TazaD was to suggest a best bet, that is no guarantee and you would be the loser if it goes down.Ask yourself how many bets that you were highly confident of have lost, only to see those that thought were just good have gone in.

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Rumlesen

Rumlesen

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Re: NFL Week 17 Osesame, i know it is diffecult to answer. But Taza have some times written Strong bet under a prediction, and they rarely fails to come in. But should it not come in, i would offcause be a shame, but not a disaster, as Taza has made me quit alot of money. But maybe your right that i should not put him in that situation, my thaughts was just that there is always one you fancy more than the other. I hear you, and wont do it again:ok By the way, it is my birthday, so have one on me :beer

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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: NFL Week 17 Happy birthday, Rumlesen....Would love to have a drink for you but New Years eve and a wedding reception on the 1st, I'm not feeling exactly 100% just now! Two best bets would be the SL/Jets under and Wash/Min under...but, yeah, not SO much stronger than the others. I do see the Carolina line dropping tho!!...If you can pick up the Panthers for -7 that would be very nice ;)

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jeffers

jeffers

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Re: NFL Week 17 Two I like this week a lot: Carolina -7.5 @ 2.00 Paddy Power Same reason as Skip really, NO poor defensively and I can't see any different result than a few weeks ago when the Panthers put 11 points on em. Carolina are on a roll at the right time and should win this by over 10. Pittsburgh @ Buffalo Over 33.5 @ 1.92 SuperOdds Buffalo are scoring for fun and need a win. I know they're up against a tough Steelers D, but can't see them playing 100% with playoffs in mind. I like 5 touchdowns here. Full lineup for Buffalo, no Bettis and Staley, Burress, and Roethlisberger all questionable made me think about taking Buffalo -9 but that's too much. Took fast starting Utah -3 (1st Qtr) tonight against Pittsburgh in the Fiest Bowl too. :tongue2

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bozzers corner

bozzers corner

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Re: NFL Week 17

From Covers.com NFL Game Day Buzz: Week 17
Ryan Stetson
Start ‘em or sit ‘em? Nobody really know how much or little some of the NFL’s premier players are going to be on the field this week, regardless of what their respective coaches say. But here’s quick look at what you can expect. Pittsburgh: Bill Cowher says he wants Sunday’s game against Buffalo, but he isn’t about to take any chances with some of his banged up starters. Tommy Maddox will start at quarterback for Ben Roethlisberger after Big Ben took a nasty shot last week against Baltimore. Meanwhile, Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis will also be watching from the sidelines. Cowher says he’s going to substitute the rest of the offensive starters in and out to keep everyone fresh.
The books have the Steelers pegged as 9 ½-point underdogs. New England: It looks like Tom Brady will probably play about a half against the lowly 49ers before Rohan Davey takes over. The Pats are set as 13 ½-point favorites. Indianapolis: Tony Dungy has said all week that Peyton Manning and the rest Indy’s big guns will see some significant playing time against Denver, critics be damned. Still, it’d be surprising to see Manning taking snaps in the third quarter. The Colts are set as 9-point dogs. Green Bay: If Brett Favre had his way, he’d take every snap Sunday against the Bears, but Packers coach Mike Sherman will probably have something to say about that. Sherman’s staying tight-lipped about how much his starters will play, but has reiterated the importance of Sunday’s game all week. “If (Green Bay’s losing), I wouldn’t be surprised if the starters stayed in there so we can win the game,” backup quarterback Craig Nall told reporters this week. “We’re not that good to sit guys and say we’ll be ready next week,” Favre added. Atlanta: Not only will Mike Vick play Sunday against Seattle, but depending on how the game turns out, he may end up taking all of the snaps. As long as he’s in there for a while, Atlanta looks great at +205 on the moneyline. Philadelphia: Philly isn’t messing around. The big names will probably get about as much time as they did last week and hit the showers. The Eagles are getting 3 ½, but by the sounds of things, they should be getting at least a major. Happy New year everyone!Playing the under on the Viks thanks to Taza:ok - plus Jets at -3 against the woeful Rams (penington has had a go at the media so will be up for it, plus they still need to win so clinch a playoff spot) - and have also took indy over 19.5 points at Betfair. hope manning plays more than they think as have him at 5/2 for most passing yards (posted on PL in pre-season so not after eventing ;) ) and he's about 150 up on Culpepper :hope
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gazzyg

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Re: NFL Week 17

2 for me this week Pittsburgh (+9.5) 10/11 @ Buffalo.....Nooo way the Steelers are gonna lye down and take an ass whoopin' off anyone going into playoffs... like this a lot. No total on Oakland Jags game yet but will get involved in the under if its oooooo 37 or anything above can see this being a safety first punt fest
Big 2 from 2 suggested this week :dude Steelers W and 13 punts in a 19 pt ball game at Oakland = ££££££££ Big Money :beer Beer time and a late night wee ton on Giants(-1) Hope some of you won a bit...back for the playoffs :D
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bozzers corner

bozzers corner

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Re: NFL Week 17 Manning not playing any of the game........:@ :@ :@ :@ Next weeks NFC games look quality, both divisional matchups. Early prices from Bet365

Jan 08 13:30201STL Rams+4.020/21O 52.010/11
202SEA Seahawks-4.020/23U 52.010/11
Jan 08 17:00 203NY Jets+5.520/21O 44.010/11OTB
204SD Chargers-5.520/23U 44.010/11OTB
Jan 09 10:00205DEN Broncos+10.010/11O 56.010/11
206IND Colts-10.010/11U 56.010/11
Jan 09 13:30207MIN Vikings+5.510/11O 48.010/11OTB
208GB Packers-5.510/11U 48.010/11
Big one for momentum and think Philly will be a nice price to oppose them in the 2nd round.....haven't even bothered to try and play without TO.
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