Flat Racing: 10th Apr 2011

[RussP]

4.50 Leopardstown Paying 4 places, we have a 17 runner handicap over this turning 7f. One thing I highlighted last time I bet in a race over this trip here is that low numbers are favoured and I'm again sticking with those in the lowest 7 stalls. I'll take on Ma Ani and Rigid Rock who look outclassed, whilst Murura may struggle with the trip. Rambling Dancer may just have reached its class ceiling and Daring Man got a good run lto & will find the 2lb rise harsh. Aznavour is the one to beat but is no 3/1 shot so I'll take: Dunne Grand (10/1 Bet365 BOG) - Drawn in 3, this one has a big chance off a lenient looking mark. Had a recent spin on the AW and ran well over this new career low mark. Is now stepped back up to a more suitable trip over 7f. 2 wins from 23 career starts and another 8 places but, of more interest, is its record in 7f races; 8-3-2-3-2-8-1-0-0. All of those runs off at least 3lb higher mark than this, whilst promising jockeys 10lb claim will add to its chances. Running style often varies but I feel its form is better when racing prominently so I hope it bounces out of this low box and stays close to the pace. I do think this looks a poor race and, despite the 17 runners, I feel only 4 or 5 of them have any sort of chance. May be 10's now but I think this will go off a few points shorter and make it my EW bet of the day.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing: 10th Apr 2011 Adilapour 7-1/Rich Tapestry 14-1 Bet 365 - Leopardstown 3.45 What the hell were Bet365 playing at with their odds on Adilapour in the 3.45 Ballysax Stakes? They opened up at 10-1 early hours of this morning and Paddypower were 9-1, they were the first 2 bookies to price up. When I clicked through and went into the Bet365 site they had changed the 10-1 and went 9-2 but PP still went 9-1. They then pushed it back out this morning and now go 7-1, very strange. Maybe they took a big bet at 10's? I am on Adilapour at 7-1 and Rich Tapestry at 14-1 to small stakes and instead of backing Recital for this race at odds on I've backed it each way at 10-1 for the Derby. Recital should take all the beating but I'm aware we are pricing up these horses based on just two races and based on form from last year. Rich Tapestry won an all weather maiden but had a turn of foot like a decent horse, up in class now but could be anything. Adilapour is sired by Azamour and should be more at home over this type of trip and these are the only two I would see having any chance of beating Recital. Regent Street and Exodus have both been well beaten by their stablemate, Banimpire was poor in Ireland recently and Mawaakef was nowhere near good enough against Casamento. The value could lie with the 2 mentioned but on all known form Recital should win this easily and have it set up for him by the other 2 Ballydoyle horses, last win was on heavy and its good to firm today though. Expect the 2 selections and the fav to be held up behind the pacemakers until about the 2f pole.