leony Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Hello PL Been a long time lurker in this forum. I love systems and it is the only way to bet - for me at least. Haven't got time to take different factors like who is injured or is it raining on matchday or is the goalkeeper taller than the right wing and so on. I've devised my own system which goes as this: If a match is rated at an Asian Handicap 0 for both teams I will lay the draw. I will be using Bet365 for choosing the matches since they were used for the backtesting. I will use Betfair to lay the draw. I will keep score in two ways. First one will be flatbetting and in the second I will be chasing my losses with a lay ladder. Flatbetting stake will be 1 unit and chases will be to win 1 unit. Matches will be put up at around 1400 CET on weekday and noon on weekends. This is also the times at which I choose the matches (and I have done this for backtesting also). I am not choosing matches several days in advance. I would love it if I had the time to choose them 5 minutes before kickoff but I don't so a couple of hours before will have to do. I will be back with info on how I did on the backtesting tonight and the reason for the lay ladder (since many people don't like this way of betting). EDIT: I have decided that I will not lay an odd of 4 or more. This will primarily affect the lays in the Finish Kakkonen Group A,B and C. Last season I had 26 selections of odd 4 or more and 8 selections lost. That is around 30% - bad when aiming at a maximum of 25% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please There is one qualifier for Saturday: 02 apr 16:00 Halmstad v Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan Let's :hope for a good start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please There is one qualifier for Saturday: 02 apr 16:00 Halmstad v Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan Layed at 3,5 at Betfair for both flat and chase Forgot the odd - sorry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Good luck amigo...:welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Thank You Mr Magoo Unfortunately the first match was a loser :cry I trailed the AH 0 for both teams for a couple of years and Scandinavia (Norway, Sweden and Findland) has a few percent lesser games that ends with a draw. Don't know why. Scotland and Poland are also in this category (but I will not play those games this season). I have 449 games in Scandinavia. Sweden = +31,7 units Norway = +24,32 units Finland = +12,5 units Yield between 4 and 5 percent. Not much but better than a kick in the teeth. Unfortunately this is the past - there no telling what the future will bring :hope The figures is based on all games from Bet365 (5% commision is deducted). I don't know which divisions Betfair will cover this season. I have written an email asking but they only told me the two first divisions in Scandinavia. The other seasons they have covered Finland and also had 1 division north and south in Sweden. The reason I am chasing my losses is to increase profits, of course. The system proved itself at level stakes. So i will take the chance. Longest losing streak is 4 games in these 3 countries. If 2 games in a chase is played at the same time I'll split it and start 2 chases. This is not a paper trail but I am only playing amounts I can afford to lose. Please do the same. Will be back Sunday with more games and I will try and post the relevant statistics very soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please 4 qualifiers today in Norway 03 apr 18:00 Sogndal v Odd Grenland 03 apr 15:30 Sandnes Ulf v Bryne 03 apr 18:00 Asker v Ham-Kam 03 apr 18:00 Randaberg v Strommen Initial stake will be 1,05 unit to win 1 unit after comision. 3 games starts at the same time so I wil start 3 chases today. I will start chasing the Sandnes Ulf v Bryne match and if that is not a winner then I will adjust the stake for the next match. Chase 1a: 03 apr 15:30 Sandnes Ulf v Bryne stake 1,05 unit All 4 matches will also get a 1,05 unit stake in the flatbetting spreadsheet. Will be back when Sandnes game ends with the other chases and stakes. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Chase 1a: 03 apr 15:30 Sandnes Ulf v Bryne was a winner. FT 0-1. Since there are 3 games starting at 1800 I'll start 3 chases: Chase 2a 03 apr 18:00 Sogndal v Odd Grenland odd 3,55 Chase 3a 03 apr 18:00 Asker v Ham-Kam odd 3,85 Chase 4a 03 apr 18:00 Randaberg v Strommen odd 3,7 All 3 staked at 1,05 unit at betfair to win 1 unit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please One qualifier for tonight in Sweden: 04 apr 20:00 AIK Stockholm v Djurgarden layed at Betfair at odd 3,35 for 1,05 unit for the flatbet system. The last match in Sweden ended in a draw. So it is game 1b in the chase system: 04 apr 20:00 AIK Stockholm v Djurgarden layed at Betfair at odd 3,35 for 3,87 unit to win 1 unit. I don't know if Bet365 made a mistake on Betfair and some other places I've checked it says that Djurgarden is playing at home. It makes no difference for the system. I am working on the fancy tables. Will be done before the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please One qualifier for tonight in Norway: 08 apr 19:00 Stabæk v Vålerenga layed at Betfair at odd 3,65 for 1,05 unit for the flatbet system. There is 1 unfinished chase in Norway, so I'll continue that with this game: 08 apr 19:00 Stabæk v Vålerenga Chase 3b layed at Betfair at odd 3,65 for 4,20 units Haven't had time to finish the tables yet but they are nearly there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please One qualifier for today in Sweden: 10 apr 16:30 BK Häcken v IFK Göteborg layed at Betfair at odd 3,35 for 1,05 unit for the flatbet system. There is 1 unfinished chase in Sweden, so I'll continue that with this game: 10 apr 16:30 BK Häcken v IFK Göteborg Chase 1c layed at Betfair at odd 3,35 for 13,39 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Yesterdays match was a winner :-) One qualifier for today in Sweden: 11 apr 19:15 Assyriska v Hammarby layed at Betfair at odd 3,45 for 1,05 unit for the flatbet system. There isn't any ongoing chases in Sweden so this match will be the first in chase 2a. 11 apr 19:15 Assyriska v Hammarby layed at Betfair at odd 3,45 for 1,05 unit for the flatbet system. After this match is settled i will put up the results and the matches so far. I've done a little Open Office Calc sheet, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Hello Time for the promised sheets with the stats for the system - so far. Sweden - Flat: Sweden - Chase: Norway - Flat: Norway - Chase: I have changed the starting bet to 1,06 units because with a 1,05 unit stake my winnings was under 1 unit after Betfair's 5% commision. EDIT: Sheets are up. Switched to Linux Ubuntu a couple of weeks ago and I've done them in Open Office. They need a little work I used MS Office before and I am trying to find my way around OO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Sorry for the late update. 2 qualifiers for today. One starts in 5 min and the other at 1600. 1,06 units bet on flat. Since there isn't any ongoing chases in sweden I'll start 2 chases with a 1,06 stake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Today there are 2 games in Sweden an 4 in Norway. There is 1 ongoing chase in Sweden so I will continue that with 1 game. The 2 games start at the same time. I haven't got a golden rule to which game to chose when I am continuing a chase. I'll just take the one that Bet365 lists first. In this case the game in Superettan. The 4 games in Norway is also played at the same time so I'll start 4 chases. All 6 games are of course played in the flat stakes system as well. It looks like this in the tables: :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please 1 game for tonight. 18 apr 19:00 Fredrikstad v Rosenborg Lots of chases in Norway because of the bad results yesterday. Staking looks like this in flats and chases: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please 1 game in Sweden tonight: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please One selection from Sweden tonight: 21 apr 19:00 AIK Stockholm v IFK Göteborg Cannot log on to Betfair at the moment. Will upload as soon as Betfair comes alive again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Betfair is working again and this is how it looks: :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pupsaa Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Interesting system :ok Can you also post the stats till now? Like how many wins/losses per total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Hi pupsaa Here is a summary of what has happened so far: Is this the sort of thing you were asking for? So far there has been quite a lot of draws. Which is obvious if you look at the strikerate. I am aiming for a strikerate between 75-80%. Norway is a disaster and there are 2 open chases. Finland starts next weekend and I am hoping they start a bit better than Norway and Sweden has. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please 1 game today in Sweden. Here is how it looks: :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please A bit early but I have a birthday invitation so it will have to do. 3 games in Norway today. 2 chases will be continued with 2 of them and the 3rd wil be played at the initial stake of 1,06 unit. They are all played at the same time. Lots of games in Sweden today but there aren't any qualifiers :cry The 3 games look like this: :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted April 30, 2011 Author Share Posted April 30, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Finland starts today. Sorry for the late post but I've been away all morning. Here is how it looks flat and chase: :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please 1 game in Sweden today. It looks like this: :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please 3 games in Sweden tonight. All 3 starts at the same time so I'll start 3 chases. Here is how it looks: :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted May 4, 2011 Author Share Posted May 4, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please I'll try to post a summary af both the flat and teh chase system every tuesday. Until now I am very pleased with the performance of the 2 systems. Norway needs to increase the strike rate but I am confident this will happen in the next round of games. Sweden is currently better than I hoped so here I think the strike rate will decrease slightly. Here is the summary: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please 2 games in Finlad today. No ongoing chases so stake for both flat and chase will be 1,06 units. It looks like this: :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted May 6, 2011 Author Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Just realised I've made a mistake with the liability calculation in the 2 finland games. I'll correct the mistake so next time Finland comes up it'll be correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted May 8, 2011 Author Share Posted May 8, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please I have to this a bit earlier that planned because I haven't access to a computer later today. So I am doing all the games at once. 7 in all - Norway and Sweden. No ongoing chases in those 2 countries. So the stake for all bets are 1,06 units. Here is how it looks: :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted May 14, 2011 Author Share Posted May 14, 2011 Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please 1 game in Sweden at 1400: 1 ongoing chase i Sweden so stake is accordingly. Looks like this: :hope Looks like there is 2 more games in Sweden at 1600 so I'll post them after this one is finished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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