Flat Racing: 2nd Apr 2011

[RussP]

14.05 Doncaster The Lincoln consolation, the Spring Mile, with 22 runners over this straight track. Despite opinions to the contrary, I don't believe this track has a draw bias at all and it's all about the pace bias. You need to be drawn close to it and, on looking through the field, this can narrow the field down to a very manageable number. The only 2 front runners are drawn 22 and 18 so I'm ruling out anything 15 or below. Of the remaining 7, I'll take out Charlie Cool & Sir George who don't look particularly well treated, and Dance And Dance who hold up style may cause traffic problems for box 19. Both Manassas and Camerooney will be forcing the pace up the rail and neither are easily dismissed, whilst Eton Forever has a big chance if progressing as expected. I wouldn't rule out any of those 3 who may be worth perming in forecasts/tricasts with my bet: Norman Orpen (11/1 William Hill BOG) - 9 career starts so nice & lightly raced and has a top, top jockey on board. Stable in hot form too and trainer has stated after its win at Kempton in December that this was the horses long term target. Has progressed on each run in its short career but has only 1 run on turf to date. Form of last 5 runs is excellent, winning on its handicap debut off 73 but recorded a Topspeed figure of 88 (races off 89 today). Then won it's next 2 off 80 and 84, this time recording speed figures into the 90's. Was then 2nd behind Lowther, where it was 8lb wrong at the weights and finished well in front of higher rated horses, before a good 5th in the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton. That day, hold up style adopted by JP wasn't ideal and the horse had to challenge widest of all. Amazingly, dropped 6lb for that run (can only assume it's due to return to turf), despite a 99 speed figure. Looks to be very well in if taking to turf, ground should be at least good if not firmer which will suit, has form over a longer distance than a mile (always an advantage in big field handicaps) and is well drawn in box 17. There's so much in this one's favour, I am really, really excited about this race and I would still back it at half its current odds.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing: 2nd Apr 2011 4.15 Doncaster - 3pts win Communicator @ SP This horse was meant to go in the notebook last year but forgot about it and couldn't track it down again! Glad to have found it before it inevitably would win...it's a competitive maiden but this horse looked talented on its debut. Travelled nicely for a long way at Newmarket over 7f, before running green, Spencer gave him a pretty easy ride as he stayed on from the rear into a 5l 4th. The form doesn't look exactly amazing (the 3rd has won a Kempton handicap, and the 5th run well in defeat in two maidens since). However, this is all about potential and the Michael Bell trained Derby entry will come on a huge amount for the step up in trip. Bell's horses often come on for the run, also. Just noticed it's sire is Motivator, who recorded one of my favourite Derby performances when winning in 2005. Dam was a half sister to a stayer in Altay, who came from a family of a Cesarewitch winner. This trip looks ideal for this stage of his career, and could well run a huge race.