Flat Racing: 1st Apr 2011

[RussP]

15.20 Musselburgh The big race, a 5f Class 4 handicap with 14 runners. As much as I wanted to find a big priced one, I just couldn't. Of the market leaders, Nadeen is particularly well handicapped and seems to be priced up purely on the Fallon factor whilst Northern Dare and Mandurah hail from strong stables but not sure they justify their price either. Highland Warrior has great form here but I'm worried about the lack of a run and Go Go Green is another that may just need the run & would also prefer an uphill finish. Despite its form figures, I'm really sweet on: Oldjoesaid (6/1 William Hill BOG) - I'm convinced this will go off a very well backed fav so am getting on this one now. Hails from a stable in top form and, even better, jockey/trainer combo is in super form, with 3 winners and 4 2nds from their last 8 runs. Contests all the top sprints, this is easier and hasn't been helped recently by the distance this one has gotten behind in its races. I think todays jock will keep it closer to the pace, albeit not to close in what's likely to be a fast run race. Started last season on a mark of 95 and is now off just 79, a career low mark. Campaigned mostly at 6f last term, a trip too far in my opinion and, in its 5f races, was quite often the eyecatcher, not helped by a couple of Spencer shockers. Has won off 102 a couple of seasons back and has also won first time up so fitness shouldn't be an issue, especially with the stable in great form. The other big positive is the ground, likely to be on the soft side of good. Has encountered ground with soft in its description when racing over 5f on just 6 times. Form figures read 1 (off 84) - 1 (92) - 1 (102) - 3 (104 but beaten short neck) - 6 (102) - 12 (80). That last run was lto but given a poor ride that day when going off a well backed favourite. Tongue tie left off today and I'm really confident we'll be collecting 60 seconds after race time.

[Mirage]

Re: Flat Racing: 1st Apr 2011 Friday: 15.20 Musselburgh Interesting race this one and i will be going in with 2 selections. It could have been 3 but i have talked myself out of going with Lesley's Choice as i have doubts about the break. The biggest stake will be going on OldJoeSaid. This is a classy individual when at his best. He won better races than this one back in 2008 but has slipped down to his lowest ever handicap mark since. Racing off 79 should put him in the mix and the fact he has gone well off a break in previous years dampens the arguement about him needing the run. Kevin Ryan's stable has been in good form for a while whilst an equally in form Phillip Makin knows this horse inside out. If close to his best these odds will look silly and after looking through this race i expected 5/1 so there is value there for me. The other selection is another who i feel is priced up bigger than he should be. Chosen One has won over course and distance and also won over a range of different grounds, from good to firm a couple of times to soft. He has won against similar opposition and his run on the AW last time isn't too important to me as i feel it was just an extra build up to race fitness. There is a good claimer on board here and although i am not massively confident i still think there is enough form there to warrant a small each-way stake. 3pts OldJoeSaid to win - 6/1 with William Hill 0.5pts E/W Chosen One to win - 25/1 with Bet365