Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread

[chris34]

Ok fingers crossed this season turns out to be the one to turn the corner and prove a profitable one! My selection process has changed mainly with multiple selections in race in most races and staking is now a 1-10pts system to make things simpler hopefully Most bets are now also win only and also looking at Antepost markets.

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread This was posted on my blog 7th March my Antepost bets for Lincoln This year will see the Lincoln meeting the 3rd flat meeting of the season which is very unusual, the Lincoln meeting revolves around a very competitive handicap which just keeps getting stronger and stronger each year with many top yards now targeting it. Most of the runners dont have a prep race and therefore you are backing on trust that the runners are fit and ready to do themselves justice. The time of year the race usually brings Soft to Good to Soft ground so horses that act with some cut often favoured. The race has a maximum of 22 runners and recent cut off points have been around the 92/94 mark and therefore you can cross a huge amount of the current field out. All my bets will be placed on Betfair for the possibility of trading in and out as the day comes up. Kalk Bay is an interesting runner from last years winning stable Haggas and is the talking horse again. He won a shade cosily on soft ground at Newmarket in August but then was turned over rather easily by the exposed Little Scotland at Newcastle again on soft ground, but bounced right back on the deep fibresand surface at Southwell on final start last season beating some useful sorts, sure to be fit and ready for the race but a mark of 92 could leave him vunerable to being balloted out but yard will take the risk and you will get your money back if he is balloted out so at 16.00 on Betfair looks a good price. Gunner Lindley didnt always look the most straightforward last year but did get infront on final start at York over a mile on soft ground, 5lb higher this year off a mark of 93 but will need to improve again as didnt look to have a lot to spare 18.00 is a fair price but not for me. Dubai Hills is another that has to be considered but wont be a bet for me, he has found rapid improvement on the deep fibresand surface at Southwell recently and did win a heavy ground maiden so if ground was testing he could have a chance, but in all honesty like most AW races he hasnt beaten much and a mark of 95 could flatter him back on turf he was also well held when switched from fibresand to polytrack last time out which is a concern aswell. Irish Heartbeat comes from the inform Fahey yard and won the consolation race of this one last year the Spring Mile now 7lb higher for that win and did win again over 7f round here later in season and 5lb higher for that win but a mile has often looked to stretch his stamina and shapes better in a truly run 6f/7f race and therefore looks opposable. Last years winner is also entered at the moment Penitent but the yard have hinted that he will go for a listed race in a few weeks time and miss the Lincoln, he would have to carry top weight off a mark of 113 which could make things extremely tough having won off 98 last year, did win a listed race at Sandown in September but was then well held in group 3 and listed company since and doesnt look the obvious sort to benefit from going back into handicap company off such a stiff mark. Suited and Booted comes from the Hannon yard and won his last 2 starts last year both at Newmarket over 7f and mile, only got home by short head latest start but was getting on top at line and going away but a 6lb rise looks a little harsh also they were both on good to firm unlikely to get that on the 2nd of April but did win a modest soft ground maiden but even so more needed. So onto my stronger selections that I hope will make the cut guaranteed. Nideeb would have to carry a hefty weight off a mark of 107, but has shown he is a more than capable sort landing a listed event on the AW at lingfield and 2nd at kempton over a trip that probably stretched him, he could still have more to offer over the mile trip having finished runner up on good to soft listed event at haydock over this trip and did win a listed event on good over 7f at ascot giving the impression that he could be quite versatile and certainly open to more improvement yet and could easily be a group horse. Taqleed is the least exposed of all the runners having only been since 4 times and clearly has plenty of improvement left in him yet, won a good/soft maiden over a mile at Nottingham and then won a handicap in very good style off a mark of 85 over 10f on good to soft, was then far from disgraced in the competitive Cambridgeshire at Newmarket and did suggest that would be better back over a mile and remains on a perfectly workable mark on the evidence of penultimate win. Navajo Chief holds an entry in this and will be interesting to see if he comes back from Dubai in time, he has really found his feet recently over there getting his head in front in a typical competitive handicap and off a mark of 101 under a penalty could look well treated is also 1 from 1 at donny. My final selection is Eton Rifles got a bit of seconditis towards the end of last season on good to soft ground over 7f only going down by a short head to the useful Horseradish and up only 2lb for that effort and still only remains 2lb higher than last win and has to be considered. Suggested bets taken on Betfair today; 1pt win Kalk Bay 16.00 (12/1 bet365) 1pt win Nideeb 34.00 (33/1 bet365) 1pt win Navajo Chief 27.00 (25/1 bet365) 1pt win Eton Rifles 109.70 (33/1 bet365) 1pt win Taqleed 9.20 (9/1 bet365)