Flat Racing 29th

[chris34]

Last day for this thread and will tidy up results after these ones are in as I will be moving to an easier staking plan aswell. 3.30 Southwell Dickie Le Daviour is no sure thing to follow up and looks plenty skin enough at 10/3. Kheley has been generally reliable this winter without setting the world alight and is probably worth opposing as a win bet. Bertbrand nearly got his head back in front last time out when finishing infront of Kheley whether he can confirm that is suspect due to his long losing run had slowly been improving again recently and if the blinkers have same affect this time could finally get back in front with Hanagan on board! Clear Ice is the other I am interested in who is another on a long losing run but has dropped dramatically in the weights and now finds himself 10lb lower than last winning mark and has shaped much better recently and has shaped as if a drop back in trip might be worth a try having lost 2nd on the post last time out. Has won over CD. 0.2pt win Clear Ice 5/1 bet365 0.2pt win Bertbrand 7/2 bet365 4.40 Lingfield I tipped Sunset Place last week at Kempton at a nice price, to only just fail to get up over the inform Kingaroo pulling well clear of the remainder. He remains unexposed at this sort of trip having only tried this twice once in a maiden which the handicapper took a fair view of and upped his mark and then last time out off todays mark aswell, still unexposed and clearly has a race in him. 0.3pt win Sunset Place

[stewartd14]

Re: Flat Racing 29th Nice bit of Southwell and Lingfield to set us up for the flat: Southwell I like to rely a lot on sire stats at Southwell to determine which horses are likely to handle the track etc, so many of the selections below use that as a base. 3.00 LAFRAAJ Lafraaj and Little Jazz come out on top here on sire stats, boasting a 29% and 20% ITM (In the Money) percentage, and a level stakes profit with runners at Southwell. Little Jazz, however, is short enough, and preference is given to Lafraaj. Has failed to fire over shorter trips to date, but stepping up to 1m 4f on a track he should like makes his interesting. In such a weak race, I'm happy to take the chance. 3.30 LETS MOVE IT Being by Piccolo, its no surprise that Lets Move it has enjoyed some success at Southwell, and I think he's overpriced to go close again tomorrow. Dissapointed badly last time having finished 2nd the time before, and seems to have been written off. However, Derek Shaw does well with horses coming out again quickly, and at the prices on offer, I think Let's Move it is worth a punt. 4.00 PALIO SQUARE Palio Square, Mush Mir, and Ethics Girl stand out on the sire stats at the track, but preference is given to Palio Square. Ralph Beckett's 4 year old recorded speed ratings good enough to take this at Wolves at the end of the season, and he's likely to handle Southwell even better. If he does indeed improve for the change of surface, he would have to go very close. 4.30 ANA EMIRATI Ed Dunlop does well with his 3 year old runners, and Ana Emirati is taken in the 4.30. What really draws me to this horse, is his sire, Forestry has had 5 winners from only 8 runners at Southwell, showing a strong favouring towards the track. Ana Emirati continued that trend last time out, when breaking his maiden. In doing so, he recorded a speed rating better than anything else has produced, and a repeat of the run would see him come home in front. Bets 0.25 pt win Lafraaj @ 20/1 Bet 365 0.5 pt ew Lets Move It @ 14/1 Bet 365 0.5 pt win Palio Square 11/2 Coral 0.5 pt win Ana Emirati @ 7/4 Coral