Jump Racing ( includes Cheltenham Day 3)

[cpo]

1.30 Cheltenham Going from previous trends even though it’s a different race I have come up with these two. NOBLE PRINCE 2pts win 11/2 Ladbrokes WISHFUL THINKING 3pts win 10/3 VC Bet 2.05 Cheltenham Just 1 winning favourite in the last 16 running’s so I am happy to rule out both SIVOTA and CHARTREAUX 10 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 9 & they accounted for 34 of 40 places, though they have accounted for almost 78% of the total runners which rules out BUENA VISTA, ESSEX and DON’T PUSH IT 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days which rules out DUKE OF LUCCA, MICHAEL FLIPS, BARAFUNDLE, BARWELL BRIDGE and SON AMIX Horses officially rated 129 to 142 have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 60% of the total runners & they have filled all 12 places in the past 3 years which rules out KNOCKARA BEAU, MOBAASHER and WORKING TITLE In the past 7 running’s horses carrying 10-9 or less have won 6 and filled 21 of 28 places which rules out GWANAKO, LUSH LIFE, KAYF ARAMIS and PAUSE AND CLAUSE 13 of the last 18 had previously won 3m+ which is good enough for me so rules out HEAVENLY BLUES, QUEIROS BLEU and ALFIE SPINNER Pretty sure that leaves me with 4. MR MOONSHINE 1pt e/w 28/1 Bet 365 VIKING BLONDE 0.5pt e/w 28/1 Bet 365 TARABLAZE 25/1 0.5pt e/w Bet 365 RIVAGE D’OR 1pt e/w 11/1 Bet 365 2.40 Cheltenham All 6 winners had won previously at Cheltenham and Irish trained horses are 0-16 which rules out BREEDSBREEZE, KALAHARI KING, RARE BOB, ROBERTO GOLDBACK, RUBI LIGHT, SOMERSBY and J’Y VOLE Winner usually comes from first 3 in betting and Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so I think all roads lead to... POQUELIN 10pts win 11/4 William Hill 3.20 Cheltenham I am not going to bother with this one as I see it as a two horse race. I think BIG BUCKS may prove too good again and at an excellent price so... BIG BUCKS 10pts win Evens Bet 365 POQUELIN & BIG BUCKS double 2 pts win at above prices 4.00 Cheltenham 21 of the last 23 winners were officially rated no higher than 141 (last year the 1-2-3 emerged from the bottom 7 in the handicap from 24 runners) which rules out TATENEN, CONSIGLIERE and I am going to rule out CRESCENT ISLAND and EDGBRIAR who are rated 141 14 of the last 16 winners carried no more than 11 stone which rules out HOLLO LADIES, PIRAYA, AIGLE D’OR (also fav has terrible record), YOU’RE THE TOP, QUARTZ DE THAIX, MATUHI, GANSEY and CALL ME A LEGEND 17 of the last 19 winners had finished in the first 4 last time out which rules out STORYMAKER, PLEIN POUVOIR, AIMIGAYLE and JUST SMUDGE All of the last 10 winners have been a double figure price which rules out BEAUTIFUL SOUND Leaves PEPLUM 1 pt e/w 28/1 Bet 365 BIBLE LORD 0.5 pt e/w 40/1 VC Bet I’M A LEGEND 1pt e/w 33/1 VC Bet 4.40 Cheltenham Quite happy to rule out any horse under the age of 8 which gets rid of BILLIE MAGERN, DEAL DONE, GALLANT NUIT, ALDERLEY ROVER, GALAXY ROCK and FREDO Also rule out any horse aged 10+ which gets rid of FAR MORE SERIOUS, FAASEL, DEN OF INIQUITY, CORNISH SETT, BURREN LEGEND and MASSINI MAN Irish trained horses have a poor record in the race which gets rid of SADDLERS STORM and POMME TIEPY 9 out of 10 last winners ran over 3m+ last time out which rules out SHERRIF HUTTON, MINELLA THEATRE and CAN’T BUY TIME 8 out of 10 winners finished in first 3 on one or both of last two starts which rules out KHACHATURIAN and DANCE ISLAND Will rule out the favourite JUNIOR and PALYPSO DE CREEK who very rarely finishes these days. Leaves RICHARDS SUNDANCE 1pt e/w 16/1 Bet 365 MOSTLY BOB 1pt e/w 16/1 Bet 365 TEDDYS REFLECTION 0.5pt e/w 33/1 VC Bet

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Jump Racing Cheltenham Day 3 1:30 - Loosen My Load 1pt EW @ 7/1 VCbet Stable could not be in better form with 2 wins from 2 runners at the festival. He has a Cheltenham win in the book and finished 3rd to Ghizao 2 starts ago with Captain Chris a neck ahead of him, also around here. That form has been franked somewhat by Captain Chris. LTO he was very poor but not really an issue as he has never appreciated fully bottomless ground. On GD ground his form figures read 1111, and has wins on GS and GF, so will be happy enough with the ground conditions tomorrow. Hasnt run since december but Im not concerned about that as he has won off the back of a 4 month break before. Also has a 2m4f win at Punchestown so it is very likely he will stay ok. 240 - Rubi Light 0.5pts EW @ 25/1 VCbet Andrew Lynch also rides here and I fully expect him to be good enough to be involved at the business end of this race. It's all about whether he handles the ground and the track and I am confident he will do both adequately. Slammed Roerto Goldback LTO albeit on heavier ground but he did it in really good fashion and with the look of a horse who was going places. Will get 2m5f no problem and is a very good jumper.Was a decent hurdler, mixing it with Ireland's best, but it is over fences where we are seeing the best of him. Very interesting that connections choose to bring him over for this race and imo is to be respected. Will surprise me if he isn't backed on the day, at least to inside 20/1.