Odds forecasting

[cpo]

Whoever does the odds forecasts at attheraces is terrible. Fair enough it must be a tough job but sometimes he/she gets it terribly wrong! It doesn't effect anything I know but sometimes you just think where the he'll have they got that from. An example would be simon de Montfort today who I thought would be favourite but then looked at the website and they had him down as 6/1 4th best. It's 2/1 favourite today which is what I expected!

[fintron]

Re: Odds forecasting I have yet to come across a betting forecast that is always 100 % accurate but they are only designed to be a rough guide. Look at the two forecasts for the races.... ATR: 11/4 Calvados Blues, 7/2 Marinous, 4/1 Interaction, 6/1 Simon De Montfort, 7/1 Kasbah Bliss, 8/1 Mr Brock, Monterosso, 16/1 Yirga, 25/1 Topclas, 33/1 Tam Lin RP: 9/4 Simon De Montfort, 7/2 Calvados Blues, 7/2 Marinous, 6/1 Monterosso, 8/1 Interaction, 10/1 Kasbah Bliss, 14/1 Mr Brock, 25/1 Tam Lin, 66/1 Topclas, 66/1 Yirga The actual prices were 2/1 Simon De Montfort, 4/1 Calvados Blues, Interaction 4/1, Marinous 6/1, Monterosso 10/1, Kasbah Bliss 12/1, Mr Brock 12/1, Yirga 25/1, Top Class 33/1, Tam Lin 50/1. The result was 1) Monterosso 2) Calvados Blues 3) Mr Brock You could make a case for arguing either was the better forecast but if truth be told there are holes to pick in both - but there always will be because it is the opinion of one man/woman. You would also expect the forecasts to be less accurate with it being a foreign meeting where the prices are sometimes a little out. I always find the betting forecasts useful though and always scan both the ATR and RP ones against my own to see if we agree in our opinions. If I had been pricing the race up myself I would have personally priced Simon de Montfort up shorter than 6/1 but you had to consider that strictly on the figures, Monterosso (although not in as good form as recently) was 2 lb better off with him. Unlike Interaction and Kasbah, his stamina over the trip was also an unknown. That said, he was representing the Godolphin operation so could have been priced lower knowing it would be backed purely on the basis it was wearing their colours and carried 'sexy' form figures into the race.