Evertonboy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I thought it would be interesting to hear other peoples view on how they approach different sporting events with a view to trade/ bet. For example what stats they consult (if any) and there general approach pre-match. (Before I start i'd like to say Im not claiming Im a jack of all trades and Im sure Ive missed key principles of but thats the aim of the thread, to broaden our approach) I'll start of with todays Cricket World Cup match: England v Ireland The very first thing I do is consult the weather forecast. The next thing I do is take a look at the overall stats of the venue using Cric Info. The average run rate per over is 6.12 in the 50 over format over the last 10 years. My interpretation of this is that your average batting team should acheive a score of (6.12 x 50) 306. The highest score over the same time period was 347 and the lowest score in which 50 overs where complete was 169. After looking at the venue, I move onto the teams. England England are currently ranked 5th in the world below Australia, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka. England have been poor in the one day form of recent, the dramatic draw with India coming after poor win against minnows Netherlands all this coming after a poor 6-1 series defeat in Australia (all be it after the Ashes success). In addition to the above, England have only won 3 of there last 16 matches in India. Ireland Currently ranked 11th in the world amongst the minnows. In the last 5 years there average run rate is a poor 4.62. At face value ther won loss record isn't too bad, winning 28 and losing 27 in tehre last 59 matches. On closer inspection you will see that the games are mostly against fellow minnows and every time they have played of the big 5 in the last 5 years they have been beaten, including 3 out of 3 against England. Conclusion Despite England recent poor form, I expect there class should be apparent here and they should win quite convincingly. After consulting the prices on Betfair, England are 1.03 to win and to me not worth investing in. Given Irelands average Run Per over rate, I do not expect them to get anywhere near the venue average of 306. Well thats my research into the game, I know its not the best game review but you get the jist of it. What other principles are there to consider in preparation for a cricket trade/ bet? Im talking about any 'background' work you would carry out before the game starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Preperation I still remember my highschool days. I would buy a local bett newsleater (mostly for the weekend), come home, lie down and go for it. No net, no strategies, no bank, combos with @50 and higher :) Nothing special to contribute the topic, but I have to say that I never check weather conditions ;) Basically, I base my bets on researchs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Preperation Based on what's happened, I'd do something other than look at the weather forecast....:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Preperation Based on what's happened' date=' I'd do something other than look at the weather forecast....:rollin[/quote'] The weather forecast is mainly for 5-day games where the draw is a runner... Fantastic result for Ireland though :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Preperation Sorry, I thought you were attributing the need to check the forecast specifically to England v Ireland. I agree though, Test cricket does require some assessment of the weather. I would argue who wins the toss can be almost definitive for two fairly even sides in terms of not necessarily who will win, but who will have it all to do to avoid defeat. You would also be well served checking the record of sides batting second in day night matches on certain grounds. Colombo for instance seems to offer a real edge to whoever goes first. Cricinfo presumably carries full stats on this one. Hope you have more success finding an edge than England's bowlers today.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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