Jumps Racing - Wednesday 2nd of March

[Monterosso]

3:40 Folkstone - Amirico - 4pts @ 15/2 (VC) I'm quite keen on this fellow chances. He looked a decent enough type when winning a maiden hurdle on his debut over jumps but has yet to live up to that promise on his next 3 starts. However, he won that race on very testing ground and hasn't had it anywhere near as testing since, but will get it too his liking today. Amirico probably didn't beat too much that day but he traveled and jumped like a horse with a handicap in him, so hopefully he can take advantage now that he's dropped in grade for his 2nd handicap start. He won that race in the capable hands of Will Biddick, who hasn't been on board him since but now takes over from Aidan Coleman, and his 5lb claim will surely come in handy in these conditions. Amirico is trained by Venetia Williams, who has her horses in fine knick of late and has an impressive 20% strike rate at Folkstone. This is her only runner of the day here and it's a 400 mile round trip in total, so hopefully they're heading there with the intention of getting this fellow to achieve his 2nd hurdles win at the 5th attempt. His following 2 runs after gaining that maiden win were uninspiring to say the least but the ground was probably not soft enough to see him get involved. There was more to be optimistic about when he ran on good ground over 2m 4f at Sandown last time out, where he plugged on to be a 13 length 7th of 17, despite not having his optimum conditions. It'll be tough to get home over this extended 2m 6f trip on ground bordering on heavy, but he seems to have plenty stamina. The opposition look no great shakes here and I think that Venetia's charge should be significantly shorter in the betting. He's lightly raced, open to improvement, down in grade, ideally suited to conditions and potentially well handicapped. 15/2 is much too big, and I marked him up as a 4/1 shot so I'm having a fairly big bet on him. It's my only bet of the day and one I think could run a cracker. Although based on my own recent form, he'll tail off.

[Lars]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 2nd of March Great minds think alike... 15:40 Folkestone Amirico is likely to appreciate the testing conditions he’ll get today, and the extra 2f should be of no hindrance either. On his 2nd handicap start, I expect he will go very close. Venetia Williams’ 6yo has had six starts to date, and after two promising efforts in NHF races, he made an ideal start to his hurdling career. He scored well at Fontwell on heavy ground (over 2m4f), beating currently 105 rated Balleygan by 8 lengths. That victory came when his trainer wasn’t in the greatest run of form, which made it even more creditable. Since then however, even though running over trips similar to the one he won over, he hasn’t been showing a great deal. He was well beaten in two further novice races. Those two runs could be excused by the ground conditions, it may have been too quick for him, and running under a penalty may have meant he was in slightly too decent company (the winner of one of the races is now rated 126. He improved on both of those post-victory efforts with his first run in handicap company at Sandown. Running off 112 in a much better race than this, he looked beaten a fair way out before finishing fairly well, although 13 lengths behind the winner. That was also on ground that is likely too quick for him too, so it was a step back in the right direction. Today he gets a longer trip, upped to 2m6f, which looks a positive move. He has been dropped 3lbs in the weights, which seems very lenient and has dropped to a mark which I think he should be very competitive. Alongside this, he teams up with Will Biddick again, who has ridden him on three occasions and has placed or won in all three. He’s able to take off 5lbs, which even further helps the cause. Ground conditions at Folkestone are currently soft, so although no more rain is forecast, it shouldn’t get too quick for him. With the fact that he’s now in more reasonable company and dropped 3lbs in the weights, the extra trip being seemingly of benefit and the testing conditions being to suit, I can see Amirico running a great race. He gets on well with his jockey and his trainer is in decent form. I’ll be gutted if he doesn’t trouble the judge. 2pts EW @ 15/2 Victor Chandler (bog)