Analysing Leagues

[AndrewKent]

Hi there folks, It's been a busy week work-wise so I've been limited in what I've been able to post up. I've also be receiving some very kind feedback from folks saying they are enjoying reading my posts and truth tell, I'm quite enjoying challenge of learning something new. Anyway, this evenings thoughts? Well, as you may know, I've been putting a shed load of time into building Paul Steele's betting systems into excel. The build side of things are going really well but I've still not found that Holy Grail of betting success yet. From discussions that I've had and things I've read, I think that although the approach I am taking is sound, I need to refine how I am doing things. One idea I had is I need to be more specific about the data I analyse. Rather than taking every league into my analysis, I think I should do one at at time (qualitative over quantative analysis) and tailor any system to a specific league. Data from the Scottish leagues should have no bearing on the Spanish leagues right? So with this in mind I have decided to take one division (yet to be decided) and analyse the following things: Short term game form How a team performs against opposition of a certain rating (the rating will be based on Paul Steele's Power Rating) How teams perform when the odds of the match are X I intend to run regression analysis on these factors to find out if there are any correlations between certain league aspects (such as goals scored) and the outcome of games. Without asking any experienced Punters to give away their secrets, can I ask if I am taking the right approach or if I am over complicating something that should be very simple? As with all my posts, any and all opinions are warmly received and if anyone else who is looking for similar answers to myself, jump on board the thread, it's always good to help in whatever small way I can. Cheers guys! Andy

[Mulkis]

Re: Analysing Leagues

Hi there folks, Without asking any experienced Punters to give away their secrets, can I ask if I am taking the right approach or if I am over complicating something that should be very simple? Andy

NO and NO: you are not overcomplicating and you are not taking the right approach. Forget historical data mining. Its very exciting but it wont make you any long term profit.