Flat Racing - Thursday 17th Feb

[Mirage]

Thursday: 19.30 Wolverhampton I like the chances of the favourite in this but would want a bit more than the price of 2/1 on offer if i was to be a backer. Captain Dimitrios is interesting too as i feel a win could be just around the corner but, again, the price is not high enough. Diamond Charlie is therefore the one i am going with as my only bet of the race. Even if the other two had higher prices this colt was always going to be carrying my money come race time along with or instead of them. Last time out he made eyecatching progress on the outside to get 2nd and almost snatch the win on the line, an even more impressive run considering it was after a long break. The pedigree suggests this is the best trip and the surface shouldn't be a problem judging by his previous result. When finishing 2nd he was beaten by a rival he again faces against today and is on slightly better terms. In that race the eventual winner got a soft lead and in a race with a few front runners like this it shouldn't happen again. If still in good form and able to get the pace i think he should get i think the 6/1 on offer may look even bigger after the race than it does now. Each way taken because i think the two mentioned in the first paragraph are big dangers. 1pt E/W Diamond Charlie to win - 6/1 with Bet365

[Monterosso]

Flat Racing - 17th of February 4:00 Southwell - Guto - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365) Tough horse to win with and on a long losing run, stretching back to September of 09, a full 26 races ago. However, things are likely to pan out in his favour and Guto has been running quite well in recent months, shaping as if a win may not be too far away. He's a 4 time C&D winner, who has a lot of speed on his day but doesn't win as often as he should. Though I think the jockey booking of Martin Lane is very significant and although the horse loses his previous riders 7lb claim, the skill of Lane is far superior and worth more than the weight to a horse like this. Lane was the man on board for his last success, when scooting home in a 14 runner contest at Ayr, off a 13lb higher mark. That was the only time he took the ride on this fellow and I think he could well pay dividends yet again, in a race that is likely to be fast and furious, potentially playing into the hands of the well handicapped Guto. All of his course wins have come from higher marks and both of them in this grade, so he looks well treated off a mark of 57, despite being obviously exposed. He has about 4.5 lengths to make up with likely favourite, Shawkantango, but is 6lbs better off now, which may be enough to overturn the form and the price difference is too big. Guto is trained by Bill Rathcliffe and he runs two in this race, with Colorus also lining out. Although I couldn't have him at the price, unless the jockey bookings were swapped around. Lane is a wonderful jockey and has got many a nice winner for me in the past, so he'll hopefully prove a big plus to the horse. He also has a wonderful record around Southwell, with 16% of his mounts winning and many more making the frame. He only has 2 rides here today, the other taking on a likely odds on favourite who should win and I think this is definitely his best chance of success, in what's a relatively weak contest, where the 2 last time out winners may struggle to follow up. I'll happily take them on with the one I consider the value of the race, which is obviously Guto. He loves it around here and his turn to win shouldn't be too far away, so here's hoping that it's today. Small/medium sized stakes on a horse who I believe should be around the 6/1 mark, not the 10/1 generally available. There's a fair chance this fellow won't shorten in the market, being the apparent second string but I think he holds better claims than his stablemate, who is a horse I've opposed a few times, with some success too.