LOGISTIC RATINGS.

[betrader]

LOGISTIC RATINGS.

When assessing any football match most people, including experts and odds compilers, base their calculations on immediate past performance and league position of opposing teams to decide the possible winner or draw in match odds.

Similar methods are used in assessing the chance of a horse winning a race when judging previous finishing positions in previous races. For instance a favourite’s last placings on paper may be 54153211 which to a novice punter may appear to be running into form and worth favouritism on the fact that it has won it’s last two races and placed twice before the wins; however they don’t take into account the fact that the previous four runs were over a different distance and conditions. Taking into consideration the horses last runs over similar distance and conditions, the form readings may well be ~ 5453 ~ not such a favourites chance now is it?

Logistical ratings in assessing football matches should also be based on previous results against teams of similar ability to the immediate opponents. For example the home team currently with just 16 points and in the relegation zone may be playing against a mid table side 32 points. On the face it appears the away side having just had three wins on the bounce will have every chance of winning, after taking into consideration home advantage, after all the home side have lost their last or drawn most of their games.

[betrader]

Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. I have chosen one match from tonight’s games as a prime example.

Bundesliga 2 ~ Oberhousen V Paderborn.

Both teams last five finishes in all matches reads ~ home ~ WLLLD ~ away ~ LDWLW.

Now if you were to add up the usual scoring of 3 points win, 1 point draw, 0 points for loss, the conclusion would be ~ home 4 points ~ away 7 points. Ladbrokes early price for the game is home 2.6 ~ draw 3.2 ~ away 2.35 (fav).

(W)

My logistical ratings strip out the fact that Oberhousen has played against top sides in their previous matches when Paderborn have been playing mostly mediocre sides.

The logistical ratings reveal a different set of results ~ home W W W L D ~ away ~ L W L D W. This gives a completely different view of the game and I make Oberhousen faves in match odds to win.

Now also instead of using the basic points system for goal difference, I rate goals for and against using similar methods of Arpad Elo in awarding the following points ~

Draw = 0.5 ~ + 1 goal = 1 ~ + 2 goals = 1.5 ~ + 3 goals = 1.75 ~ + 4 goals = 2. The same criteria applies to minus goals where points are deducted.

Therefore Oberhousen’s last five (logistical) scorelines of 3-1 1-0 3-0 1-2 1-1 adds up to + 3.75; Paderborn last five (logistical) aways ~ 2-0 (L) 1-2(W) 3-0 2-2 0-2 ~ - 0.25.

The mean difference is + + 4 goal difference in favour of Oberhousen.

Later match ~ serie B ~ Atlanta V Siena.

Last five home (logistical) = W 4-1 W 2-1 L 0-2 D 0-0 W 1-0’

Away = L 3-0 D 1-1 D 2-2 L 1-0 D 0-0. Goal diff = 4.75 in favour of Atlanta.

In this case

Atlanta are deserved favourites in match odds with 70% of matches being under 2.5. What is more conclusive is that Atlanta should win but with half time scores as follows ~ home 2-0 1-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 ~ away 2-0 1-0 1-1 1-0 0-0. The unders are 100%.