jtw1 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Double chance = taking the home team to either win or draw their match. Paper trail for the time being . Rules - 1- Only taking into consideration the Main Euro leagues . 2- The home team must have won/drawn at least 5 times the amount of home losses against that weeks opponents ie - out of 5 corresponding fixtures the home side must only have lost once , after they have played each other 10 times then 2 losses are allowed. 3- Outright Home win odds must be at least 2.0 4- The home side must not have lost more than 1 from the past 6 home games . 5- The selection should have not lost more than 50% of their current league games . The layout will be - Match - h2h record - home games lost in past 6 homes - home record for the season - odds. There are 6 games that meet the criteria over Sat/Sun - BIRMINGHAM v STOKE - 3-2-0 , 1 , 3-7-2 , 1.33 MONACO v LORIENT - 5-1-0 , 1 , 3-4-3 , 1.38 ROMA v NAPOLI - 5-2-0 , 0 , 8-3-0 , 1.28 QPR v NOTTS FOREST - 3-3-1 , 1 , 10-4-1 , 1.28 KOLN v MAINZ - 5-0-1 , 1 , 5-2-3 , 1.38 All odds quoted are from Bet365 10pts returns 37.59pts for a profit of 27.59pts There was one other game that met the cirteria but i'm put off by the current form of the away side - K'LAUTERN v DORTMUND 4-5-1 , 1 , 3-4-3 . But this season Dortmund are rampant away from only 1 loss and no draws from 11 , hence why the Double chance odds are 2.2 !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Yet another JTW system :loon.... let's hope it's as successful as the others :hope Perhaps next year, PL will award an Oscar for "the most concurrent systems".... no contest... you win, JTW ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's I'm with you but five combo is too much for me..i will go with 3: ROMA + BIRMINGHAM + QPR + MAN.UNITED (Assumption) And if i may ask why Man.United vs Man.City is not in your selection, bcos i believe without checking the record Man.United will be there..... You are full of Idea......:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's May be rule no. 3 drop Man.United..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's I'm with you but five combo is too much for me..i will go with 3: ROMA + BIRMINGHAM + QPR + MAN.UNITED (Assumption) And if i may ask why Man.United vs Man.City is not in your selection, bcos i believe without checking the record Man.United will be there..... You are full of Idea......:notworthy Man U are around the 1.8 for the home win and we need at least 2.0 for the home side to be interested ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Double chance = taking the home team to either win or draw their match. BIRMINGHAM v STOKE - 1-0 :loon MONACO v LORIENT - 3-1 :loon ROMA v NAPOLI - 0-2 :eyes QPR v NOTTS FOREST - 1-1 :loon KOLN v MAINZ - 4-2 :loon K'LAUTERN v DORTMUND 1-1 :eek Ok lets review what happened this week and first of all we see that , what i considered to be the strongest selection , ROMA came unstuck . Other than that quite a decent start with 3 outright wins and a draw at QPR. Quite surprised that Kaiserlautern snatched the draw against rampant Dortmund at good odds as well !! I think we have the basics of a decent system here but it will take a while to see what the best way forward will be eg limiting the acca to 3 or 4 teams , having a limit on odds available , etc.] I think we need at least a 33% strike-rate from the bets to see a genuine profit returned . Looking at the results could it worthwhile to keep an eye on the outright home market at the odds , 2.0+ ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Now although the odds are now 1.95 for the home win now , 24 hours ago 2.0 was available from bet365 , as this is a paper trail i'll allow myself a bit of leeway for this pick. CARDIFF v burnley 6-0-1 , 0 , 9-4-2 , 1.25 . * I think as a rule i'll take the odds shown 24 hours before the ko. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Evidently not an "acca" :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Evidently not an "acca" :unsure No sirree !! As it's still a trial i'm posting any qualifier's whenever they are played . If this was to become 'live' then any returns from tonight would be reinvested on the next set of selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Understood :ok..... it's looking good at HT... Cardiff winning 1-0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's CARDIFF v burnley 1-1 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c11esh Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's HIi, Did the Birmingham v Newcastle not qualify as selection tonight? Forget that, W0-D4-L1 fails on the first criteria Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Posting these early before any change in the odds . There are 2 clear selections + 1 other that falls below the odds limit of 2.0 but such is the strength of the other criteria i'm willing to bend the rules to accomodate . LENS v sochaux 5-3-1 , 1 , 4-4-4 , Odds 1.22 FREIBERG v wolfsburg 4-3-0 , 1 , 6-2-3 , Odds 1.40 OLYMPIAKOS v panathinaikos 5-4-1 , 0 , 10-0-0 , Odds 1.20 It's the Olympiakos game , which is 1.85 for the home win , that falls beneath the odds mark but their home record speaks for itself and there's no ther game in that league , when Olympiakos are involved , when we'll get anywhere near 1.2 for the Double Chance . If this were 'live' then we'd have 12.50pts going onto the treble following the 'winning bet' on Cardiff mid-week. Returns 25.62pts for the original 10pt stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c11esh Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Hi jtw1, Any opinion on the Reading v Watford game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Hi jtw1, Any opinion on the Reading v Watford game Meets all the criteria mate , apart from the odds . However Wm Hill are offering 1.2 so if your interested i'd go there :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c11esh Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Thanks for the reply, Ran through today's fixtures on Thursday and managed to get 1.25 at bet365. Was just concerned I had made a mistake as it was not mentioned. Hadn't seen that the odds had dropped so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's LENS v sochaux 2-3 :@ FREIBERG v wolfsburg 2-1 :loon OLYMPIAKOS v panathinaikos 2-1 :loon * remember there is only one rule in betting on acca's and that is 'THERE'S ALWAYS ONE !!!!' :lol Knocking at the door , confident we'll get a return shortly . Still keeping an eye on the outright home wins , looking good so far if not that spectacular. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's MILLWALL v notts f 3-2-1 , 1 , 9-3-4 . odds 1.4 TRANMERE v yeovil 4-1-0 , 1 , 6-4-5 . odds 1.28 NEWCASTLE v bolton 7-2-1 , 1 , 4-5-4 . odds 1.25 IRAKLIS v xanthi 6-3-1 , 0 , 5-5-1 . odds 1.20 VALLENCE v lorient 5-3-2 , 1 , 6-3-2 . odds 1.25 Sun ---- PSV v ajax 8-6-1 , 1 , 10-1-2 . odds 1.22 PALERMO v udinese 4-1-1 , 1 , 8-2-3. odds 1.33 NACIONAL v sp lisbon 2-5-1 , 1 , 5-2-3 . odds 1.66 On saturday there is one other qualifier DEPORTIVO v real madrid 10-4-1 , 1 , 4-5-2 . odds 2.75 I will keep these big odds separate from the main selections for the moment . I would imagine that if real money was involved ,i would have a treble with MILLWALL / PALERMO / NACIONAL purely based on the odds . The others would make up a 5-timer . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c11esh Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Hi jtw1, Do you make your own judgment calls rather than just following the rules, if something takes your eye that would not match all the rules? Just wondered as VALLENCE v lorient 5-3-2 , 1 , 6-3-2 . odds 1.25 doesn't match the 2nd rule, and do you class League 1 as main European Leagues? cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's 2- The home team must have won/drawn at least 5 times the amount of home losses against that weeks opponents ie - out of 5 corresponding fixtures the home side must only have lost once , after they have played each other 10 times then 2 losses are allowed. I think that covers your query mate , as Vallence and Lorient have played each other 10 times in h2h's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's MILLWALL v notts f 0-0 :loon TRANMERE v yeovil 0-1 NEWCASTLE v bolton 1-1 :loon IRAKLIS v xanthi 1-1 :loon VALLENCE v lorient 0-0 :loon Sun ---- PSV v ajax 0-0 :loon PALERMO v udinese 0-7 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NACIONAL v sp lisbon 1-0 :loon On saturday there is one other qualifier DEPORTIVO v real madrid 0-0 :loon . I'm going tighten up the criteria a wee bit . Congrats to DEPORTIVO , another at decent odds comes in :clap Rules - 1- Only taking into consideration the Main Euro leagues . 2- The home team must have played that days opposition at LEAST 10 times , losing no more than twice. 3- Outright Home win odds must be at least 2.0 4- The home side must not have lost more than 1 from the past 6 home games . 5- The selection should have not lost more than 50% of their current league games . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Re: Double Chance Acca's Just a treble this weekend :(...........................................................:lol NEWCASTLE v everton 8-4-2 , 1 , 4-6-4 . odds 1.4 MARSEILLE v lille 6-3-2 , 0 , 7-4-1 . odds 1.25 DEPOR LA CORUNA v sociedad 7-3-2 , 1 , 4-6-2 . odds 1.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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