Flat Racing - Thursday 10th Feb

[Mirage]

Hope you don't mind me starting the thread, just wanted to get it posted and head to bed :ok Thursday: 16.20 Southwell A competitive race this one with a couple of interesting runners. Intyre Trail won last time out over this course and that was his only run in England so should go close again here. However, i cannot be backing that runner due to the rise in weight, rise in class, drop in distance and the short price. A lot of doubts there in my book so, although i could be proven wrong, i would rather take a 'safer option'. My selection, Mr. Emirati, should suit this 7 furlong trip. He ran for the fist time this year only a week ago and in my opinion wasn't disgraced. I think the mile is a bit too far, espescially on this surface, so the drop back in distance i feel is a major plus. His trainer Bryan Smart has a good record round here whilst the jockey has been onboard before with another plus being that he is a lot better off today than previous opponent Steed who will have to dig deep again to chalk up another success. 7 runners (at the moment) so will take the E/W option instead of putting the full stake on the win. I feel the price could have been a little bit shorter so i am happy to take it. 1pt E/W Mr. Emirati to win - 4/1 with Victor Chandler

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 10th Feb 2:20 Southwell - Where's Reiley - 5pts @ 9/2 (WillHill) I think that this is by far the best bet of the day and despite having form to turn around with a few runners, Where's Reiley can take advantage of a lenient looking handicap mark. He hasn't been at his best of late, running poorly between October and December, but has since dropped from a mark of 82 to todays rating of 68, which is 6lbs lower than his last C&D success, when routing his rivals by an easy 3 lengths in a similar contest. However, he does come with warning, as his yard are extremely shrewd, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him run awfully but I'll take my chances at odds that are significantly too big in my opinion. I selected him last twice, but his run last time out was fully of promise, a lot more impressive than anything he showed on his previous 4 appearances on the racecourse. He started slowly over the same C&D that he faces today, but ran on like a train from the back to eventually finish on the heels of the leaders in a close up 5th place, just 1.75 lengths behind the winner, Sleepy Blue Ocean, whom he re-opposes here on 3lb better terms. He'll also have to turn over form with Sharp Shoes (neck) and Bookiesindex Boy (1.25l), but is 1lb better off with the latter, who throws in good and bad performances with regular consistency. I think Barron's charge has more than enough ability to turn around that form and a quicker break should see him do it comfortably. The main worry is his regular habit of getting outpaced early on, but I can't see too much early speed, so he may escape this time and with his finishing prowess, he should be getting involved at the business end of affairs without too much problem, assuming he's let. Where's Reiley loves this surface, as shown by his overall record, in which 4 of his 5 career wins have come here at Southwell, all over 5 furlongs. He seems particularly suited by a good gallop, which should be on the cards here, but I'm hoping it's not strong enough to see him outpaced from the offset, which is too regular for my liking. He notched up 4 C&D wins in the space of 8 weeks at the beginning of last year, winning initially off a mark of 62, before gaining the final one off a mark 0f 74, when beating a decent field in impressive fashion. One of those races was also this one, in which he's now 3lbs lower in the handicap and has the added benefit of Graham Gibbons on board. Gibbons is a top notch jockey in my opinion and has 1 win from 3 rides on board this lively 5 year old. Where's Reiley is Gibbons' best chance of a winner tomorrow from his 3 rides and he's riding well of late, including a couple of winners around here. He has an overall strike rate of 12% at Southwell but that jumps to a massive 29% strike rate when riding for David Barron, who boasts a fine individual record here of 162 winners from 779 runners, with a massive LSP of £205. He comes here with only 2 runners today, both of whom I expect to win and it could make a nice double. Barron also had 2 runners on Tuesday, priced at 10/1 and 5/1, both ended up seeing victory. This is clearly a happy hunting ground for the Barron team and I'm very hopeful that it'll be continuing today, with a horse who is extremely well handicapped and capable of blowing away the opposition on a going day, assuming connections aren't waiting for a better price. This is a competitive race by all means, but my selection is, in my opinion, the best handicapped horse in the race and the most likely to be suited by conditions. I actually marked him up as the 2/1 favourite and I think that the 9/2 available is absolutely massive. There is numerous dangers but I feel he's the most likely winner, the value call of the race and worthy of maximum stakes. He comes with a great deal of risk in ways but don't they all. Wish me luck! 4:20 Southwell - Mr Emirati - 3pts @ 4/1 (VC) Disappointing favourite last time out but the stamina testing conditions may not have favoured him one bit and I expect the drop to 7f on the back of a good pace to be right up his street. He's a lightly raced 4 year old, with plenty of scope for improvement and I believe that his opening 2 efforts on this surface were filled with a lot of promise, so hopefully he can build on them now having his second run in the space of a week. Back in December, Mr Emirati was beaten on the nod by the progressive Steed, who he reopposes today on a massive 10lb better terms. That horse is clearly going the right way, but I don't think the drop in trip around here is as much in his favour as it is in my selections. The pull at the weights may be enough to overturn that form and with Mr Emirati potentially coming on for that run last time out (on the back of a 7 week break), I think that the 4/1 available is vastly overstating his chances of success. The likely pace should come from John Balding's El Dececy or Jim Boyle's Khanivorous, both of whom seem to have decent amounts of pace and I expect that there'll be plenty to toe my selection into the race, which I think will see him in greater effect over this trip. Mr Emirati is trained by Bryan Smart, a very good trainer and the yard is bang in form since the turn of the yard. They'll be hopeful of getting another win out of their lightly raced 4 year old, who they paid 5,500gns for, but he was originally purchased for 140,000gns before the Smart team got their hands on him, so he was obviously expected to be a much better animal that his rating of 68. His US pedigree suggests he should be right at home on the Southwell surface and I think he'll prove much better for having run on it last twice. Tom Eaves takes the ride, as he has done last twice and he's a jockey I've sided with on a number of times. He does well for this yard and is overdue a winner, having gone 20 rides without success. If he can keep closer order on board this fellow, I think he'll be finishing as well as anything and should be able to get involved at the deep end. The horse is potentially a lot better than what he has shown to date and I think today could be the day it all comes together. 4/1 is overstating his chances somewhat, as I believe he should be around the 11/4-3/1 mark, with claims of being shorter. It's a tricky class 4 contest but I think he can take it in his stride and go on to be competitive off higher marks in the future. He opened at 9/2, so it's disappointing to miss that price but I think he'll go off significantly shorter than this and hopefully he justifies medium sized stakes. Looks to have a very live chance if things fall right.