BBOTD - 10th of Feb

[Aidymac]

I am changing my strategy and im going to try look for e/w value in very competitive handicaps that offer good prices.. Hopefully this new strategy will be a success.. Ginger gave me advice on how to try to work out my own tissue to try find value so i might be terrible, but it wont be for a lack of trying! Behindcloseddoors - Huntingdon 3:40 There are several horses in this race that i feel are a tad overpriced, some i feel are underpriced and some i feel are fairly priced.. Its not just about finding value, i want my selections trainer to be in reasonably decent form and i want to have a jockey in form on my side also. My selection is trained by Kim Bailey who has had 5 winners and 5 places from her last 40 runners, a 12.5% win strike-rate and a 25% place strike-rate so she is in reasonable form. The jockey is Jason Maguire who has had a tremendous season thus far, who has had an impressive 11 wins and 8 places from his last 40 rides, a 27.55% win strike-rate and a whopping 47.62% place strike-rate. When the team pair up for Turf Hurdles, they are 15 wins and 11 places from 109 races, showing a profit of +£7.62 to Level Stakes. Onto the horse and although it has an opening handicap mark of 114 which is a stiff mark to be starting out on, it ran a fine race last time out at Wincanton when it was 2nd of 18 to Furrows, who was a shock winner @ 66/1, it went down by a neck and had a Paul Nicholls horse back in 3rd, it was a Class 4 Novices Hurdle and i think a few winners will come out of that race. My selection looked a sure winner that day as it traded @ 1.1 in running. The step up in trip could well suit my selection further and i like the fact Maguire is in the saddle again as like last time. It has run at Huntingdon previously twice, on its debut when it ran a very nice race on good ground when 4th of 16 over 1m 6f, after which it then went on to win a bumper at Lingfield for Pam Sly. It ran at Huntingdon again two runs back when it was 6th of 13 but that was on soft ground and i am convinced it is a better horse on good ground. When doing up my tissue and taking everything into consideration, i made this animal a 5/1 shot in my book so the 8/1 is very appealing to me especially with 4 places on offer. There are 2 others in the race that i feel are a tad overpriced and may be threats to my selection, firstly being Kavaloti who is a lightly-raced horse trained by Gary Moore, being ridden by Jamie and could be anything after having a long break, i think the 25/1 about that horse is overpriced. The other danger i feel could be Special Day who if re-capturing its old form would win this at a canter, it hacked up over 2m 3f at Newbury in 2008 and has not had many runs since and @ 22/1 may also have a squeak at a price. However i feel Behindcloseddoors holds a very good chance tomorrow and with 4 places on offer, i shall be backing it e/w. 0.5 Points e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365) BOG

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb

1	Ingleby Arch @ SP
Stake: 1.00 Single
Potential Winnings: SP £1 win @ sp 3.20 southwell beaten favourite last time out,ran wide round the bend and after a few slaps was finishing well,can reverse the form with punching who just held on to win,course and distance winner which at the end of last year was racing in class 2 races,again gets the nod off (H) who knows his nags posted early as out all day tomorrow