Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed

[Kingspur]

Hi - I'm pretty new to the betting scene but I've been reading a lot about different systems and it seems the key to a good one, is a good exit strategy. The one I am thinking about at the moment on Betfair is as follows: Select a football match where you can lay the draw at under 4.00 Back a 0-0 and a 1-1 draw then lay the draw. An example was this afternoon in Ligue 1 in France Auxerre vs Lille 0-0 was at 9.8, and 1-1 was at 7.0. Lay the draw was 3.45 My total stake is £10, so I split my stake so that I would win the same no matter which result. so 0-0 @ 9.8 Stake is £4.17 1-1 @ 7.00 Stake is £5.83 This would leave me with potential winnings of £29.00 (taking into account 5% commission) Then I lay the draw (@ 3.45) so that my total liability comes to £29. This means that if the result is 0-0 or 1-1 I should breakeven, and if either side wins I get back £11.84. Taking commission and my original £10 stake into account this leaves me with a £1.24 profit. I hope I got all my calculations and assumptions correct first of all. So obviously, the big gaping hole in this system is the high scoring draw. Looking on previous results this season, I see that of the potential matches I could have used the system for, 5% come in as 2-2 or 3-3. But the English PL and German Bundesliga are worse coming in at 8%, whilst if I remove these and concentrate on just Scotland, Italy, Spain and France, the problem is reduced to 3.5%. So I guess my question is, do you think there is a reliable exit strategy that I could use in-play if it looks like a high scoring draw could be about to happen.

[froment]

Re: Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed As far as I know, there is no strategy that would cover you during entire match; any strategy leaves you exposed to loss for shorter or longer period of time during the match, if things don't go as you expected. Basicaly, what you did here is laying 2-2 and 3-3, with some changes, as in that case you would won also if match ends in 0-0 and 1-1; I assume that odds for 2-2 were something around 20 to 25, and 3-3 80 to 100, you staked (better said, exposed to risk of 2-2 or 3-3 results) total of 21.84 units; if you distributed it over 2-2 and 3-3 at odds I mentioned, you would get around the same profit of 1.24 units. As soon as match is under way and there is no goal, odds for 0-0 start dropping, while 1-1 stays on the similar level or slighly rises until beginning of second half; unlike them, odds for 2-2, and especially 3-3, start rising immediatelly after kick-off; so, when they are high enough, you can back them, too, but problem is that your profit is already small; if you want to take half of those 1.25 units, you should wait for 2-2 to hit something about 50, and 3-3 to hit 200, which won't happen before half-time. And that's why I mentioned laying 2-2 and 3-3 - if those results are your only pitfalls, then I'd rather lay them at kick-off, and then wait some time before backing them, as it at least saves you some commission, being on the same market.