Value tips

[andyjkmak]

Ok, I'm going to be really controversial here( in some peoples eyes) but its something that has been really bugging me for some time now. Whenever I post a tip on BBOTD it is based on two major factors. 1. Has the horse got a good chance of winning or placing( very subjective and not guaranteed of course) 2. Does it represent good value, i.e. is it reasonable to place a bet and expect a decent return for your money. I base this on stake v return and it is always imperative to me that the risk should give a reasonable return . Poker players use this very often when deciding whether or not to make a call( percentage of risk v return etc) However there are a number of people tipping lately( please don't take offence here as it is only a point not criticism) that give 1/10 or 1/12 shots as their BBOTD. Now I understand that these horses are usually, to quote one tipster 'penalty kicks without a goalkeeper' But do they really qualify as 'Best Bet of the Day'??? For me personally I wouldn't even back those horses and in fact often look at other horses in the same race as value e/w bets which very often brings me a much better return. I could give you many examples, such as Line Freedom last Sunday( fell at the first at 1/10) where the so called 'nailed on favourite' doesn't win, there were a couple of odds on shots turned over yesterday for instance. But my main point is this, are these horses ever a VALUE bet? Now I really hope that those who tip these horses don't take offence as none of this is meant to be personal and I would really appreciate some honest feedback on this. My defence for my position is that, based on my BBOTD record, it seems to me much more sensible(and certainly profitable) to look for value rather than whether or not a certain horse will win. To be honest, I could pick 3 or 4 horses today for instance that are practically( and I use this phrase with caution) nailed on to win, but I wouldn't back them as I can see more value going each-way on something else in the race or not betting at all. My main argument here is to ask whether or not an odds on shot(long odds on mainly) can ever be called BBOTD. I agree that in the main these horses usually have an outstanding chance of winning and barring accidents should win easily but do they qualify as BBOTD. In my humble opinion( and I'm sure this will rattle a few cages) BBOTD should be where the wager will give a decent return for the risk. Once again, I feel I must press this point, I don't want to offend anyone and I apologise if certain people take it personally as this is not intended.

[BillyHills]

Re: Value tips Good question Andy, i'll come back to this later mate, no time at present:ok