NFL (Sat)

[TazaD]

Pittsburgh -9.5 (2.00 @ Laddies!!!) Great line this!! As expected Baltimore crushed the Giants last week, now it's the Steelers' turn to tee-off on poor old Eli! NY scored 14 last week, 7 of which was a 50 yard fumble return...so for the last 5 weeks they have scored 14, 10, 6, 7 and 14....Now they face the league's no. 1 overall defense! It's going to get really ugly for NY again this week. I can only assume that Coach Coughlan did not look at the upcoming schedule before making Eli the starter...They've played Atlanta, Philli, Wash, Balt and now Pits...4 are in the top 8 for sacks and the one that isn't (Wash) are no. 4 in pass D!! All it has done is eroded Manning's confidence and now it's starting to wear down the defense too. Allowing 68 points in 2 weeks to Washington & Balimore isn't great!!...and although Pittsburgh haven't been scoring all that many points on the road so far this season, they look certain to pick up a defensive TD and some good field position here. San Fran +5.5 (2.00 @ Pinnacle) [i'll hold out for a +6 that I reckon is coming somewhere!!] League: 24-4-2! (Av. WIN 3.0) home 7- dog off 3- SU win as away 7- dog. [sF] 13-0-1 (Av. WIN 8.4!!) if total <40!! This is one of the strongest trends I have come across!! And, to be fair, I don't think it is that scary!... ...I know San Fran D is horrible, but Washington have scored 7, 6, 17, 13, 13 & 14 on the road so far this season! (Av. 11.6!). As bad as SF have been they will score. The lowest they have scored @ home this season is 14 (Av. 22.5). I'm seeing everyone talk about Defense, Defense, Defense (and rightly so!)...but can Washington score enough to cover as road favs?? I'll be on the 49ers!! (And will be feeling sick the whole time! ) Carolina @ Atlanta under 42 Carolina have been lighting up the scoreboard lately, but now face a much tougher defensive team in Atlanta. They did only score 20 last week with lots of easy field position, and only gained 4.4 y/play against S.L. Their defense was impressive, getting 6 interceptions, and SL's only score was a 75 yard pass on a blown defensive cover. Duckett (RB) and Griffith (FB) out for Atlanta will hurt them offensively. Carolina must keep winning to make the play-off's, so they will be going all out on defense. Their last meeting was 27-10 with an interception returned for a TD. Shouldn't be too much offense in this one. Last 3 years: Carolina: 2-7 under as road dog 3-7; 4-11 under revenging a loss. 5-10 under inside div. Atlanta: 6-16 under as fav...3-10 under in all games this year. Got a couple more I like on Sunday.

[TazaD]

And Sunday! Minni @ Detroit under 49 League: 1-9 under (Av. 32.5) home 3- dog, off any away ats win but SU loss, if opp off 10+ ats loss. How do Detroit keep scoring??...Well, I guess they don’t much, but their offense is horrible and getting worse!! They’ve only scored more than 13 TWICE at home all season (Av. 16 ppg). Harrington coming off 5-22 for 47 yards! (in some wind admittedly), but I don’t think the Lions will be pushing on with much of a passing game. Minni allow 4.9 y/carry, so Jones is likely to get 30+ carries in this game. Detroit defense has been playing reasonably well, allowing only 3.7 y/rush and 6.54 y/pass, and Minni offense definitely hasn’t been firing on all cylinders lately. The last meeting @ Minni was 22-19, but that includes a kick-off return for a TD and a safety. Harrington passed for 91 yards in that game and both teams rushed more times than they ran. I know Moss is back, but I still think 7 TD’s is too much to ask. SL @ Arizona under 42 League: 3-11 under (Av. 35.3) away 3- fav off 10+ SU loss as away 7- dog. [sL] Arizona have played tough D at home all season, only once allowing only 18 ppg (15.4 if we take out the 31 by SF last week). SL are really struggling offensively since Bulger and Faulk have been hurting, scoring only 17, 17, 16 and 7…v. Green Bay, San Fran (hardly defensive guru’s!) and were lucky to get on the board at all last week. I think we’ll see plenty of running in this game…After Chandler’s 6 INT performance last week, the last thing SL will want to do is come out throwing, and McCown hardly strikes fear into a defensive co-ordinator! Even in a shoot-out last week, Arizona gained only 5.3 y/play, and I can’t see them running up a score on a SL defense that has played reasonably well the past 2 weeks. The first meeting of the season went 10-17 with a healthy Bulger and Faulk. Can see a similar scoreline in this game.