Flat Racing - 28th of January

[Monterosso]

2:50 Lingfield - Gwilym - 2pts @ 12/1 (Bet365) Previous selection of mine on a couple of occasions and looks handicapped to gain his 7th career win if putting his best foot forwards. Gwilym had a hectic 6 months in 2010, running 12 times between May and November, winning once off a 3lb higher mark than what he runs off here. He was off the track for nearly 2 months then but made a pleasing return over C&D when coming 1 length behind the winner in 5th place. He was sent off as a 33/1 shot that day and wasn't expected to put in much of a show but he performed very creditably and the form looks decent, with 2 winners coming out of the race since, including the impressive Clear Praise who was half a length ahead of him in 3rd. Assuming he could run to that level of form again, then he should be in the shake up here, in what I'd consider to be a much weaker race. Gwilym then reappeared a couple of days later but was readily disposed of after failing to quicken on the back of a modest gallop. However, he may well come on for having had those 2 runs and I expect a much better performance here in a race full of animals of a similar level to himself. Cathy Gannon was on board for both of those recent runs but is now replaced by Dane O'Neill, which is a huge positive in my opinion and one that usually yields results for the Derek Haydn-Jones stable. On the All-Weather, they've a massive 32% strike rate with 7 winners from 22 runners and a huge £78 LSP, although that's skewed by a 50/1 winner a Southwell, while they're 1 from 2 here at Lingfield. Haydn-Jones makes a 350 mile round trip to bring this lively 8 year old to Lingfield and it's also his only runner on the day, so I'm hoping it's not all in vein. Dane O'Neill gets on well with Gwilym, despite not having won on his back yet, he has made the frame on 4 of his 7 attempts to date. Gwilym is yet to taste victory on the All-Weather track of Lingfield, however, he has won on the turf equivalent, not that it really matters. His course form, though, is relatively impressive as it reads, 5-3-2-2-5-9, which will hopefully be followed by that elusive "1" after 2:55pm. He's also tactically versatile, which could come in handy in a race that seems to lack any out and out pace. O'Neill nearly gained success on him by attempting made all of the running on this horse back in August, when just failing to hold on at Sandown. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar tactics applied here and they could well prove productive if he got an easy lead, which is possible. However, if something else made the running, he'll be more than happy to sit in behind and run on in the latter stages, as he has done on many of his career success. I think he has a great chance here and doesn't deserve to be priced up as a 12/1 shot, with 7/1 being the price I deemed acceptable in my book. If he runs to his abilities then he should run a good race and I've played small/medium stakes at a price that shouldn't last for too long, assuming people are thinking along the same lines as myself! 5:40 Wolverhampton - Ethics Girl - 3pts @ 5/1 (WillHill) Likable 5 year old Mare who is in the form of her career and running off a career high mark. Assuming she's not feeling the effects of her recent exertions, she's in with a great chance of winning her 3rd race at this track in as many months. The first of those came over 1m 6f off a 7lb lower mark. She was sent off as a 20/1 shot and managed to score in very impressive fashion, beating some decent animals by over a length despite running around under pressure. Next time out, she was dropped in trip and met trouble in running from a 5lb higher mark over 1m 4f at this track. She hit even money in running and looked likely to run on to follow up on a win for the first time in her career but got no luck at all, which has happened a few times throughout her career. Ethics Girl has never been the most reliable and once again ran a modest 4th when once again upped to 1m 6f. It seemed like the handicapper had her in his grips but when being stepped up to an extended 2miles here, she gained another victory in impressive and gamely fashion, despite once again running around under pressure. They applied a first time tongue tie and that combined with the extra distance seemed to bring out even more in the then 4 year old filly. The horse in 2nd place, Phoenix Flight, is a very talented type and despite traveling wonderfully very strongly throughout the race, he just couldn't get to grips with John Berry's talented and steadily progressive staying Mare. Those 2 then locked horns once again, this time over 2 miles at Kempton, a track that Ethics Girl was badly hampered on her only start there. She again met trouble in running, after the pace setter, On Terms, dropped away and hampered her mid-run. She was then squeezed out shortly after, at around the 1f marker, before running on again to finish a 3 length 5th, behind the rival she readily disposed of in her previous race. Assuming she didn't get hampered, I reckon she'd of placed at least and went close as she was once again running on very well. It was a fine performance and I believe she's holding her form extremely well, despite rising in the weights. Now that she's back at Wolverhampton, a track she seems much more suited to, and running over this extended 2 mile trip, I think there could well be more to come from her. It's a tough race by all means but John Berry says she's still in fine health, both physically and mentally, which is a big plus to the chances of a horse who seems to be constant thinker. The yard are in great knick of late, with 4 winners from 13 runners since December. Franny Norton takes the ride and he has wonderful stats when riding for this stable, with 8 winners in 30 rides, giving them a fine 27% strike rate and a £26 LSP. Franny has been on board Ethics Girl for 2 of her career wins and he's a jockey I've a lot of time for, despite some people not rating him too highly. He's riding well of late and I'd consider him a big plus to this horse, around a track he often does well. This is Berry's only runner today and 1 of 2 rides for Norton, the other being a virtual no hoper, so here's hoping that he'll make this one count. The opposition here aren't great in my opinion and a last time out winner and a Johnston horse are currently taking up the top 2 spots in the market. I think it's all wrong, with the admirable and in-form Ethics Girl my clear 2/1 favourite. She's unexposed at the trip, seemingly improving all the time and likely to absolutely relish this small 6 runner field. However, the only thing stopping me from putting maximum stakes on her is the fact that Mark Johnston has a runner here, as his animals always seem to beat anything I select, plus it seems very well handicapped and he'll have his charge ready despite the break. I'll still play medium stakes on my selection, who should definitely give me a good run for my money if she gets luck in running, which doesn't seem to happen too often, but with the smaller field, it should.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - 28th of January 3.25 Lingfield Poor looking contest with the strong favourite being made a non runner, Triskdekaphobia starts his year for a new trainer having his first runner and will be interesting to see which way he goes in the market. He isnt the easiest to predict at the best of times often goes off like a bullet and often depends on how much of a soft lead they give him, he was given a real soft lead and stuck out in a seller on very unfavourable conditions on penultimate start and handicapper reacted quite harshly considering, unable to get to front when last seen so can be forgiven has won off higher marks before so must have a chance in a weak race also gone well fresh. The only horse that comes here in any sort of form really is Black Baccara who has run 3 good races in a row after a poor run that was starting to look never ending, never won other than on first ever start which is a concern but stayed on really strongly last time out over 6f and will need a strong gallop back at 5f but that should be guaranteed with my other selection in the lineup handicapper had his say raising him 3lb but has run well at higher marks before so could be capable. 0.3pt win Black Bacarra 4/1 vc 0.1pt Triskdekaphobia 14/1 vc