Jump Racing - 28/01/11

[BKI Punter]

1:45 Gowran Park Mourad 5pt win - 8/11 (Bet365) Odds-on shot, but surely this price is far too big? True price imo is 1/2. Picked up and carried almost every horse in this field easily lto in heavy ground at Leaopardstown. Jumbo Rio was the only exception, but even he was well held by Mourad over 2m4f behind Hurricane Fly. Mourad is a very good horse and was is well fancied for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, if he has any realistic chance he should take this race with ease. Ground is fine and he has a 100% record at the track having only raced here the once, with one win back in 2008. Max bet on this one.

[Lars]

Re: Jump Racing - 28/01/11 15:15 Fontwell A few horses in this field that could definitely be considered as “exposed”, but it isn’t always worth going with one regarded as “unexposed”. However, I do quite like the chances of Seamus Mullins Raspbary, especially if he’s felt no ill-effects from his fall when last seen, and could go close now dropped to more reasonable company. The 5yo has raced 10 times to date, and has only actually raced in any sort of handicap contest twice (a novices handicap hurdle). He had a decent start to his career in National Hunt Flat races, running well on his first two starts. Raspbary was then fairly highly tried, running in some competitive Novice Hurdles, including once when finishing a remote 4th behind the very decent Captain Chris. That run wasn’t without promise, and caught the eye of a fair few people, enough for him to go off favourite on his next start. He ran terribly though, perhaps due to firmer ground, and was given the summer off. He started this season in pretty ordinary fashion, his first run being OK but was on firmer ground and the second being a quite disappointing effort, after being almost first off the bridle, he plodded on but could find no extra, his jumping letting him down a bit. The reversion to fences didn’t on paper look to suit, but he ran his best race to date when on debut over the bigger obstacles. He jumped poorly to begin with before getting the hang of things late on, and got very close to a Jonjo O’Neill horse rated 117 at the time. A replication of such an effort in this sort of company would see him going close. His jumping is a slight concern, as when last seen 18 days ago, he fell. He was jumping adequately that day before the mishap, and was going fairly well too. He wouldn’t have won if getting round (the winner was rated 132) but I’m sure it would have been an improved effort. The distinct drop in class will obviously be of assistance, it only being a 0-95 affair. I think he’s well up to a mark of 94, with talented Jimmy Dereham taking off 3lbs. Seamus Mullins hasn’t been in the greatest form in the past two weeks, but his form this season has been pretty decent, with a 16% win rate over fences. I quite fancy him if he gets round, and the price of 14/1 is pretty tasty, but with the doubts about his jumping, I’m keeping stakes down. I would not be surprised if he went very close, however. Raspbary; 1pt EW @ 14/1 Bet365 (bog)