Staking Plans

[SIG]

I was hoping to get some views on the approach you guys take towards money management and how you decide on your stake with your betting, more so if any of you have a staking system you use to determine your stake? It's my own personal view that the staking plan you have in place can make or break your betting success. If you can hit a decent strike from your selections and produce a decent profit at even stakes, then employing the right staking plan will increase your profits by quite some margin. To give an example, my system selections have been producing a decent strike rate (currently around 70% for 2011, mainly due to the poor Saturday performance of the selections) albeit at quite short odds (2011 average of 1/2 compared to the 2010 average of just under 3/1!). At even stakes, the system would have produced a 25% growth year to date which in only three weeks is decent enough. But by using the staking plan I developed, the system has produced a 41% growth to date which I am more than happy with. I hope to hit 50% by the end of the month and then continue this trend for the rest of the year which would result in a 1300% growth by year end which, when compared against even or fixed stakes, is a massive growth. I know my plan wouldn't be to everyone's taste as it includes an element of loss recovery but due to my high strike rate, this hasn't been a problem. What I'd like is to get an idea of how the rest of you guys manage this side of your betting and any views you may have on staking plans and even money management in general? SIG :dude

[Gingertipster]

Re: Staking Plans I used to bet in level stakes. But found it mattered less about whether my short priced selections won or lost. Everything depended on how many outsiders won. Obviously with level stakes a punter needs to win ten Even money chances to win the same as one 10/1 shot. It did not seem right so changed to betting to win the same amount. But this time it mattered less about the outsiders winning or losing. As I was losing much more on the shorties. Again it did not seem right. I wanted a staking plan that would enable me to put more on the shorties, as they by and large have a greater chance of winning. Yet win more on the outsiders, as - with less money risked - they deserve to win more money. It occurred to me that anything I believe has double the chance of winning should have double the stake. i.e. Anything I rate as a fair Even money shot (50% chance) gets 50 points staked (at 5/4 or bigger. I allow for a margin for error), something I believe has a fair 3/1 (25%) chance gets 25 points staked (at 7/2 or bigger), which in turn should have double the stake of one I believe has a fair 7/1 (12.5%) chance (rounded up) 13 points staked, and so on. Less money staked on the bigger prices, yet more money won. However, my stake should also take in to account the amount of value I believe is in the bet. i.e. Something thought to be a 20% (fair 4/1) chance, who is available at 6/1 (fair 14.3%) should have more stake than if the top price was shorter than 6/1, say 5/1 (fair 16.7%). Stake gets bigger the more value I believe is in the bet. So points are added for amount of value in the bet. With my 20% chance available at 6/1 (14.3%). Difference being 5.7% (20 – 14.3 = 5.7). Multiplied by 3*. So 5.7 x 3 = 17.1. Rounded down (or up). So anything believed to be a 20% chance who is available at top price 6/1 gets 20 + 17 = 37 points @ 6/1 winning 222 points. Any 20% chance only available at top price 5/1 gets 30 points staked 20 – 16.7 = 3.3 x 3 = 9.9 so 20 + 10 = 30 points @ 5/1 winning 150 points. (* If I think a race is easy to work out it is 3 x the difference. If it's not quite so easy it is 2x the difference). For each way bets It is 0.67 x the win only stake. So a 37 point win only bet @ 6/1 becomes 25 points each way @ 6/1. For anyone wanting a more conventional points staking plan: Divide all stakes by 10. The amount each point will be worth depends on how well I am doing.