KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot

[bowles10]

Saturday January 22 2011 Ascot 14:25 Victor Chandler Chase (Registered As The Clarence House Chase) (Grade 1) £105000.00 added, 5yo plus, 2m 1f, Class 1, £59146.00 penalty 9 runners Going: Good to Soft, Soft in places Race Preview » Sky Bet Special - £100 in free bets!

Colours: Show Hide 12:40 13:15 13:50 14:25 14:55 15:30 16:05

No.		Form	Horse	Age	Wt	Trainer	Jockey	OR	NagMe	Bet
1		254/124-	Crack Away Jack 391	7	11-7	Miss E C Lavelle	W Hutchinson	149		SP SP 12/1
2		6P11/15	Gauvain (GER) 42	9	11-7	Nick Williams	D Jacob	159		SP SP 14/1
3		PB821-4	I'm So Lucky 42	9	11-7 t	D Pipe	T Scudamore	153		SP SP 33/1
4		3F4-375	Kalahari King (FR) 25	10	11-7	Ferdy Murphy	G Lee	162		SP SP 16/1
5		1341-46	Mad Max (IRE) 42	9	11-7 t1	N J Henderson	David Bass	155		SP SP 10/1
6		1314-11	Master Minded (FR) 42	8	11-7	P F Nicholls	A P McCoy	178		SP SP 8/15
7		12053-2	Petit Robin (FR) 42	8	11-7	N J Henderson	B J Geraghty	163		SP SP 7/1
8		1122-33	Somersby (IRE) 42	7	11-7	Miss H C Knight	Hadden Frost	162		SP SP 7/1
9		212-1F2	Tchico Polos (FR) 14	7	11-7 t	P F Nicholls	Ian Popham	158		SP SP 20/1

Last Winner

Year	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	SP	Age	Wt
2010	Twist Magic (FR)	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	11/8F	8	11-7

Betting Forecast: 4/7 Master Minded, 7/1 Petit Robin, 8/1 Somersby, 12/1 Mad Max, 14/1 Crack Away Jack, 16/1 Gauvain, 20/1 Kalahari King, 25/1 Tchico Polos, 33/1 I'm So Lucky

[bowles10]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot Previous winners

Year	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	SP	Age	Wt
2010	Twist Magic (FR)	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	11/8F	8	11-7
2009	Master Minded (FR)	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	1/4F	6	11-7
2008	Tamarinbleu (FR)	D Pipe	T Scudamore	12/1	8	11-7
2006	Tysou (FR)	N J Henderson	M A Fitzgerald	10/1	9	11-2
2005	Well Chief (GER)	M C Pipe	T J Murphy	5/1	6	11-10
2004	Isio (FR)	N J Henderson	M A Fitzgerald	4/1	8	10-5
2002	Turgeonev (FR) (ex4)	T D Easterby	R McGrath	9/2	7	10-4
2001	Function Dream (IRE) (ex4)	Mrs M Reveley	A Ross (3)	2/1F	9	11-0
2000	Nordance Prince (IRE)	Miss V Williams	A P McCoy	13/8F		10-0

[bowles10]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot what a superb line up of horses in this one not many of these races around these days and worth seeing MM take this lot on, should be a great race MM is mighty short at 8/15, would be interesting to see some tissues on this one as could be worth tucking into a nice EW price on one of the others

[TheRat]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot I am off on Saturday Personally think MM will win by 5l plus, agree with Mileni that if I was going EW would go for Crack Away Jack. Should be Petit Robin and Somersby again in top 3 but he has ability to break in at larger price. Should be a formality though. Though MM looked quality again LTO and back to his best, I would only be put off if the ground was heavy but forecast is good

[bowles10]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot 2 races in one, w/o Master minded

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						Sort By: Fav Name
4.5	Somersby								Somersby		3		7/2				3			10/3
5.0	Petit Robin								Petit Robin		3		4				3			11/4
7.0	Mad Max								Mad Max		6		9/2				5			11/2
7.5	Crack Away Jack								Crack Away Jack		6		5				13/2			6
8.0	Gauvain								Gauvain		7		7				13/2			7
11.0	Kalahari King								Kalahari King		9		9				8			10
13.0	Tchico Polos								Tchico Polos		12		11				12			11
15.0	Im So Lucky								Im So Lucky		14		9				14			14

[ganjaman]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot if i had to pick an e/way bet in his i would go for mad max When racing over 2m-2m1f MAD MAX record is 11134 (3-5), he is (3-3) on soft ground seems to like a flat track, if we discard all his runs at Cheltenham his record is 1111131 (6-7) so has to be fancied to give Master Minded a race on Saturday with conditions in his favour and his stable in top form.

[Gingertipster]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot I agree Ganjaman with your tip. Mad Max has travelled well up with the pace in his two races this season at Cheltenham at around 2 1/2 miles. Weakening late on which suggests he did not stay. Even though he won at Aintree at the trip. There he beat Somersby, but after Cheltenham, being reluctant to post and then kicked at the start. It is possible Hen's charge was below form. Take him out and Max had little to beat. At 2 miles Mad Max could well improve again. Goes well on soft ground and usually jumps well. Not sure Ascot / right-handed track suits (nothing to say he's unsuited, just races more often to the left) probably coincidence. To be continued...

[TheRat]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot Anyone going?

[Tull]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot Master Minded is definately the one to beat but interest lies in the e/w and possibly Gauvain. Running well prior to the Tingle Creek and off same mark. Conditions shouldnt be a problem and if getting a bit of luck might sneak a place if able to run on

[Gingertipster]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot

Gauvain. Running well prior to the Tingle Creek and off same mark.

Off same mark? :unsure This (and Tingle Creek) is a Grade 1, not a handicap. Though agree, Gauvain has an each way chance. Stable in good form.

[Gingertipster]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot 2:25 Ascot Master Minded is a fair price today @ 8/11, but there (imo) better value around. Has well over a stone in hand on the book. Should and hope he wins, as have him ante-post for Cheltenham. Nicholls is back in form now and Master Minded has won more than once in January. Hopefully he will get some room, as I feel he does not like being crowded. Mad Max has travelled well up with the pace in his two races this season at Cheltenham at around 2½ miles. Weakening late on, which suggests he did not stay. Even though he won the Manifesto at that trip. There he beat Somersby, but Hen's horse had a hard race at Cheltenham, reluctant to post and kicked at the start, probably below form. Mad Max had little else to beat and could improve today. Goes well on soft and usually jumps well; though does have a (good) conditional jockey who's unable to claim. Has won on right-handed courses, but improved since; nothing to say he does not act that way around. 14/1 betting with Master Minded and 6/1 without looked good each way bets, though prices now gone. Petit Robin is more worrying going right. Constantly losing ground at his fences in this race last year. Though I hear he wears a pricker in his mouth to try to solve the problem. Ran an excellent race first time out, well behind Master Minded at Cheltenham. No reason to improve as goes well fresh. I had Petit Robin having an equal chance as his stable companion and Somersby, though increased it slightly for the pricker. Somersby got outpaced at Cheltenham in both Tingle Creek and Arkle at the top of the hill. Ground is softer today, but Ascot is less stamina testing than Prestbury Park. Stable in poor form, but was when staying on third last time. Has some temperament, does not like going to post, but does nothing wrong in the race. Everything he's done suggests a greater test of stamina will suit. Prominent position might help in that respect, trainer is not known for changing riding plans. Gauvain has not got a chance on Tingle Creek form. However, trainer is in better form now. If you believe the Forpaddytheplasterer / Tataniano form, Gauvain is the value pick. But that race was strongly run and favoured Nick Williams horse's late surge (form suspect). Second is a perennial runner-up too, habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Kalahari king is the second best horse if going back far enough. Hasn't put up a good run since winning at Donny. Shadow of former self so far this term. Trainer is a bit more bullish today but I'd rather pass him over. I'm So Lucky is probably better on a sounder surface. Lot to make up on Tingle Creek form, though is better right-handed. Backed Crack Away Jack for the Arkle last season, but hasn't been seen in public for over a year with a leg injury. Undoubtedly still has potential, 4^th in the Champion Hurdle and should be as good eventually in chases, if can be kept sound. Saw him in his box in October. Emma said he wasn't the easiest of patients, wanted to get on with things and was taken out on his own before dawn, dark settled him. At the time his trainer wasn't sure if he'd be ready for a prep before Cheltenham, so whether he's in top form first time is doubtful. Though she did add going to the Festival without a run would not worry her. Tchico Polos has a generally progressive profile and a bit more improvement would see him in with a chance against all bar his stable companion. Beaten 2¾ lengths by Cornus a couple of weeks ago on similar ground. Good pace suits him at this trip and is capable of going from the front. Needs to go this way around. Jockey is a bit of a negative, conditional unable to claim; but at around 16/1 (now 14/1) each way betting without Master Minded, looks over-priced. My 100% Book: Master Minded 8/11, Petit Robin 10/1, Mad Max 11/1, Somersby 11/1, Gauvain 20/1, Tchico Polos 20/1, Crack Away Jack 22/1, Kalahari King 40/1, I'm So Lucky 200/1 Or: Petit Robin 4/1, Mad Max 9/2, Somersby 9/2, Gauvain 8/1, Tchico Polos 8/1, Crack Away Jack 9/1, Kalahari King 14/1, I'm So Lucky 50/1

[fintron]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot My book w/o Master minded... 5/2 Petit Robin, 9/2 Somersby, 13/2 Tchico Polos, 17/2 Gauvain, 10/1 Mad Max, 12/1 Crack Away Jack, 14/1 Kalahari King, 16/1 I'm So Lucky The reasoning - Crack Away Jack is clearly capable, effective RH and over trip. Long break to overcome though. Gauvain effective over this trip. Seemed to be improving until poor run latest. Bit to prove now. Im So Lucky 4th in Tingle Creek and won well Sandown prior to that. Kalahari gone right off the boil, even running in jumpers bumper at Southwell recently. Mad Max effective RH and has pace for trip. Helds in handicaps last twice, suspicion improvement has levelled off. Petit Robin - plenty of form behind Master Minded, including Tingle Creek LTO. yard in decent form an, importantly, has speed for trip. Somersby - lacks the toe for 2m1f. Likely to be seen to better effect in the Gold Cup next season. Classy horse though, Arkle second last term. Tchico Polos still progressing, plenty of form RH and bet Somersby in Haldon Gold Cup earlier in season. could bridge 5 lb gap on official figures quite feasibly. Petit Robin and Tchico Polos my bets at 10/3 and 14/1 respectively. Good look all.

[Tull]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot

Off same mark? :unsure This (and Tingle Creek) is a Grade 1, not a handicap. Though agree, Gauvain has an each way chance. Stable in good form.

Yes I know it a G1, does a horse's OR not move it running in G1's? If Gauvain had come second would his OR not increase? I accept that the weight carried in G1 would be the same regardless but Gauvain has an OR of 159, the same rating as when running in the Tingle and off the same weight/mark. What I was trying to get across was that he is carrying a racing weight that isnt too much of a burden IMHO Please excuse my knowledge on this area as you know from pervious posts its something I'm trying to interpret better.:$

[Gingertipster]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot Fair enough Tull, I think I know what you mean.:ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot Great call on the more prominent position about Somersby. Still got outpaced but didn't lose much ground. Feel he was very flattered to get so close to MM though.

[ganjaman]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot just read that master minded as drifted in the betting for the champion chase,corals have made big zeb fav for the race

[fintron]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot Yeah wasnt very impressed with MM either. Good call on Mad max lads. :clap

[cpo]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot Where do people reckon Petit Robin would have finished if he had stayed on his feet? He seemed to make a few mistakes before falling but they didn't seem to effect his momentum at all. Travelling as well as the fav when falling, I think he would have gone pretty close.

[diamond1924]

Re: KEY RACE: Victor Chandler Chase 2m 1 f Saturday 22nd Jan Ascot I'm a little bit late today lads, I had a very small e/w bet (only one today) on one of my favourites, Kalahari King. I've obviously (on here many times) been following Ferdy/Graham Lee for years and the sire Kahyasi (my 1988 derby winner when i was a mere 18y/o). It was no more than a "kick myself if it happens to win" effort. I went to Stenhousemuir today to watch the mighty diamonds get beat in a lacklustre 'bad day at the office' but I managed to find a coral in Larbert to watch the final 2f of the race and it was no shock to see KK out of the picture. Until I got home and saw the replay, I didn't see the incident where KK was badly hampered, so the run isn't looking as bad as I first feared. 2 things from the race. KK doesn't really want so much cut in the ground, so conditions not quite ideal. Also, Ferdy has said that the class 2milers go off to quick for KK who's a bit on the small side too. He wants to get him out over 2.5m this spring and targetting the Ryanair. Watching back over this race KK wasn't travelling too badly but Ferdy reckons it will suit KK as they won't go off so fast in the Ryanair. Watching how well KK got back into things in the closing stages, he looks like he's in good shape, and though I'm a couple of quid down today, I think a nice antepost e/w punt on the Ryanair is the order of the day.