Evertonboy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Afternoon, This morning I tried my hand at trading. I have traded before but didnt find it worthwhile and gave up. When I first dabbled with it I came up with the following rules: Tra-mbling 1. Target profit is 1.5% of bank per day. (Slow and seady wins the race) 2.Identify only 1 horse per race. (No need to run before i can walk) 3. Study the market and Use the graphs to identify a specific patern in a horses prices before entering a trade 4. Back (with a view to lay) only to begin with to limit liabilities 5. Exit point is 3 ticks difference to entry point. (Even if that means a small loss- its better than losing my whole stake) 6. Exit 60 seconds before the off no matter what. After watching a few videos and reading some sources I have added to the above with following: I will look at any horse racing/ cricket/ tennis/ football that is live and has in-play betting available. *To Qualify as a possible bet, the market must have good liquidity (Around £100,000+ traded) *Market must also have well distributed odds *I will have Oddschecker open in order to compare the available odds *I will target selections at no greater price than 6.0 in order to reduce liabilities. Now, after putting that in to practice I am having an absolute mare :cry Every trade i seem to make goes against me. I am watching the graphs of all participants looking for any movements, Im looking at oddschecker for any movement in prices from the bookmakers. Can anybody give me any advice on how i can improve? Regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovo.cosmico Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Hi, usually I trade only on Betfair, not with the bookmakers... You lay and wait for the back odds to rise over and then trade. Or the other way around. Actually it's quit difficult to profit unless you know what you're doing, how the odds move during a game or a race. Maybee you should read a bit more about it and paper trade it for a while...;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? I think youve misunderstood/ ive not explained very well :spank im using betfair to trade, I just like to know whats going on withe bookies prices. Any reading tips? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeresTheKey Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? change your system, test it without money for 20 trades, record the resutls, make conclusions, test it again with 20 very small stakes, make conclusions, see if you re happy with that, and if you begin trading with a % of your bank, no more than 2% the most difficult thing is to stick with a system the most difficult part of trading is to trade brainless like a robot, following blindly a system and before you do all that find the book "trading in the zone", and read it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavendish Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Afternoon, This morning I tried my hand at trading. I have traded before but didnt find it worthwhile and gave up. When I first dabbled with it I came up with the following rules: After watching a few videos and reading some sources I have added to the above with following: I will look at any horse racing/ cricket/ tennis/ football that is live and has in-play betting available. *To Qualify as a possible bet, the market must have good liquidity (Around £100,000+ traded) *Market must also have well distributed odds *I will have Oddschecker open in order to compare the available odds *I will target selections at no greater price than 6.0 in order to reduce liabilities. Now, after putting that in to practice I am having an absolute mare :cry Every trade i seem to make goes against me. I am watching the graphs of all participants looking for any movements, Im looking at oddschecker for any movement in prices from the bookmakers. Can anybody give me any advice on how i can improve? Regards Trading is an art Jamie; I have been trading over the last three years, still seeking my fortune! You would probably be surprised to also know most traders would not use bookmakers as reference The advise I can offer is to start with small trades (£10) and slowly increase your stake with confidence. I currently trade from £50.00 up £200.00 depending on price range. (horseracing only) On other sports like football,darts etc where low odds are a factor I have traded up to £5000, not as drastic as it sounds! Example I have traded Phil Taylor for £5000 at odds of 1.10 so my the liabilty was only £500 and then traded out at 1.11 for a £50.00 free bet (cannot remember if I greened up) To trade properly you must have the right tools (software) I do not know if I am allowed to promote the software I use; great product at a very reasonable price (I have NO affiliate with these guys.) If your interested leave your email up tomorrow evening and I will send you their address. I realised early on that I could not make a living from trading; but I do get a buss when a trade comes off and still get annoyed when I have called it wrong; especially when the trade turns around and had I stuck to my guns would have made a profit and that is probably why I will never make real money from trading! One rule you must obey! (learn from mine and many others mistake) Never let the trade go in-play hoping the odds will go in your favour; always trade out before the off, take your loss to fight another trade! The above sofware will let you trade out at an equal loss Regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Depboy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? One rule you must obey! (learn from mine and many others mistake) Never let the trade go in-play hoping the odds will go in your favour; always trade out before the off' date=' take your loss to fight another trade! The above sofware will let you trade out at an equal loss[/quote'] I disagree slightly. If you open up a trading position you should be doing it because you believe that the price you're taking represents value. Unfortunately, the market will not always recognise and reflect this value in advance of going in play. But that doesn't mean that your original assessment is necessarily wrong. Personally, I advocate trading out most but not all of your position before the off. The % that you leave to go in play should represent an amount that would not cause you to cry into your beer if the trade goes against you. Typically for me this is about 15% of my original position. I find that from a red starting position I can often green up in play only a few minutes in. Of course I'm talking from the perspective of someone who only ever trades soccer. This strategy may not work so well for horse racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? the most difficult thing is to stick with a system the most difficult part of trading is to trade brainless like a robot, following blindly a system Well in this case there is software to help you. You can program your own personal robot that makes exactly what you told him regardingless any emotions. In my opinion that is the only way to follow a system blindly otherwise there will be a point of time when you feel bored or angry or anything else and your emotions win against your brain and you do things you definitly don´t want to do. An hour or a day later you ask youself why the hell you did these stupid things and you can not find any explanation for your uncontrolled behaviour. So program your own robot and let it do all the work for you! All you need is a good knowledge about programming on excel and macro basis. Ãf you don´t have, I´m sure there will be programmers who can do the job for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Define clear individual strategies per sport, event, market. Stick to them for a substantial period of time and number of "trades" and keep accurate records. Do not draw any kind of conclusion on the basis of the result of 1 day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? I disagree slightly. If you open up a trading position you should be doing it because you believe that the price you're taking represents value. Exactly Depboy. A trader needs to know his/her subject. With horse racing you need to know the form of every horse in any race you want to bet in, in detail, to identify value. Knowing odds as percentages and vice versa helps tremendously too. Try making your own 100% book. Give each horse a percentage chance, convert to odds. Back anything significantly higher with bookmakers or exchanges than your "book". If you are good at evaluating form, wait for the price to shorten and trade out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Just wanted to emphasize - keep records. Whatever trading idea or strategy you would start, keep acurate records what happened (and whats didnt). 20 games is nothing, 200-400 at least. Papertrade. Then analyse and adapt. Awoid data back-fitting. Find stable patterns. Identify best exit-entry points. Find best starters for specific situations (lay or back). Get Best Friend with EXCEL! Dont afraid VB. Enjoy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Eh ??????? Trading has nothing to do with backing value. Trading is about predicting the movement of prices, not whether a price is value in the traditional (outright) sense. A trader can make a profit at prices that are the worst possible value for straight bettors. A trader doesn't care about what chance a selection has of winning because by the time that is of any relevance he's already completely done. All a trader cares about is if a price is going to go up or down in a relatively short period of time. You could use the traditional concept of value to determine the opening of a trade but very few people will apply that method in their trading. Finding traditional value AND predict price movements... tall order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Eh ??????? Trading has nothing to do with backing value. Trading is about predicting the movement of prices, not whether a price is value. It can be to do with backing value Dataplanter. I can predict the movement of prices by being good at identifying value. Because I am obviously not the only punter to identify value, it is possible to back something I believe is value, then sit and wait for that price to shorten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Rafael Nadal vs Bernard Tomic, currently trading at 1.02 / 1.03 Nadal is ready for the AO but can at times be a slow starter. Bernard Tomic is a newcomer playing a home match with nothing to lose. These matches can often be surprising and i'll be laying Nadal at the start of the match at 1.03 as there's a decent chance to a close start driving the price upwards before either Nadal fully wakes up or Timic runs out of breath. The question if 1.02 is value in the context of Nadal winning the match is completely irrelevant to me as i'll most likely be completely done after the first set possibly start of second set. What happens after that and if Nadal actual wins and if his price is value, in that sense, i couldn't care less. All i want is the price to go up and then preferably down again sometime in the first set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Depboy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Rafael Nadal vs Bernard Tomic, currently trading at 1.02 / 1.03 Nadal is ready for the AO but can at times be a slow starter. Bernard Tomic is a newcomer playing a home match with nothing to lose. These matches can often be surprising and i'll be laying Nadal at the start of the match at 1.03 as there's a decent chance to a close start driving the price upwards before either Nadal fully wakes up or Timic runs out of breath. Sounds like you feel you've identified value in laying Nadal to me.:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Eh ??????? Trading has nothing to do with backing value. Fully agree. This is actually the beauty of trading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Yes, i consider laying Nadal value in a context of a trading strategy. But no, i do not determine wether 1.02 is value in the context of Nadal winning the match as that is irrelevant to me. I could do that but that's a different strategy and actually it would be a no-bet for me in that context. The point is that traditional value is one way of opening a trade but certainly not what everybody "should" be doing. You need to define different strategies for different situations and test them over a sufficient number of trades before making any conclusions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? What you are doing Dataplanter is like a lay to back in racing. Laying a favourite before the start, who travels poorly in a race. Knowing he is likely to be a bigger price in running. It is another good method.:ok Although in racing, there are a lot of traders who know their form book. They know these horses well. So are less likely to get to as big a price in running as you might think. Value comes in to any bet. In the context of how the bet or trade is likely to be made. Without knowing whether a horse is value in the sense of a lay to back bet (NOT as a single bet to win or single bet to lose) - there is no knowing if the second part of your bet will be the right price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? I'll ellaborate a bit on that particular strategy. Let's call it "closer than appears". I identify tennis matches where one player is clear favourite, odds around 1.20 The "market" clearly thinks that player is going to win it and not doing so would be quite an upset. It is expected that the favourite will win easily. I look for matches with strong opponants, not strong enough to win it, but strong enough to make it close. At least closer than first appears. I will lay that favourite player with the expectation that at some point during the match his odds will go well above his opening odds. At that time i back him again for a profit either way. If i was to back or lay outright i'd probably show a small loss overall as there simply is no or little value in the opening odds in a context of outright strike rate and odds. But i don't care about that. What i care about is the prediction that the favourites price will rise at some point in the match above his opening odds. Irrevelant of wether he continues to win the match or not. So the strategy is " can this opponent give the favourite a hard time ". There are numerous strategies possible, the point is you need to define them individually and assess after a sufficient number of trades wether they work for you. Note that many trading strategies are subjective to the person executing them. That means what works for one may not work for you. Practice is the key to finding what works for you as an individual. And those that choose traditional value as criteria are most welcome to it ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavendish Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Eh ??????? Trading has nothing to do with backing value. Totally agree Datapunter Sorry Depboy; we will have to beg to differ! Lay a horse @ 6.4 for £200 Total liability £1040 trade goes against you so you think you can recover once the race starts. The horse is prominent and before you know it the odds have dropped to 3.2, Now what? Always trade out before the event starts unless you are taking a view/position when the event goes in-play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Always trade out before the event starts unless you are taking a view/position when the event goes in-playIt is actually a matter of choice as you can go both ways. I think the mistake many people make, yours truly certainly included, is to do one thing today and then something else tomorrow. Both times finding something that doesn't work. O dear. I have found most of the times the cause is first of all not clearly defining what the strategy is. When does a trade start and equally important when does it end. In this case it's defining a so called "stop-loss" point. At what point do you bail out for a loss if things do not go as you'd like them to go. Not defining your "out" point is actually one of the worst things you can do. It's like jumping out of an aeroplane with a parachute but not knowing at what point to open the parachute. Often you'll open it in time and float down nicely. And then another time.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Depboy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? If you'd read the post of mine that I think you're referring to properly, you may have noticed that I qualified my statement by saying I trade soccer and my strategy probably wouldn't work for racing. Also, if you go back to the original context of the start of the thread you would have noticed that jamie's question referred to trading strategy before an event goes in play. All I was saying is that where a SOCCER trade goes against me slightly (and sometimes even if it hasn't and I believe there to be value) I find it pays to let a SMALL PERCENTAGE of the trade go in play. I still stand by what I said. If you're aiming to complete your trade prior to in play (original context of thread) you really should be looking for value in your opening price. Trading strategy for in-play is a different matter and probably merits its own thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Depboy says: "I still stand by what I said. If you're aiming to complete your trade prior to in play (original context of thread) you really should be looking for value in your opening price. Trading strategy for in-play is a different matter and probably merits its own thread". :ok I was thinking the same, but didn't like to say.:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chestorul Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Jamie try this: 1. Identify a horse 2. Look at the graph 10 minute before the race 3. At the 2-3 minute before the race you can see the trend 4. Place a back/lay bet 5. At the start of the race, or if you got your profit diference, place the trade bet 6. If you don't have profit you can go live but not on short races, only on 1mile and over race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Thanks for the advice so far, hoping to put it into practice over the weekend. I found this whilst searching through some of the other forums (its the notesheet mentioned halfway down the page): http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=756 I was wandering if anybody has anything similar they would be willing to share for football/ cricket/ rugby etc. Failing that, has anybody got any suggestions on how to make a sheet like the one above? Many Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? I was wandering if anybody has anything similar they would be willing to share for football/ cricket/ rugby etc. Failing that, has anybody got any suggestions on how to make a sheet like the one above? Many Thanks Sorry, what sheet do you have in mind? "TennisMatchNotes"??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Yes, something similar to the 'TennisMatchNotes' but for other sports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? I see... Jamie dont take it personally, but it is hard to imagine serious punter with virtually no Excel skills. In my opinion it is impossible to achieve any positive result without ability to record and analyse information. I would urge enyone to spent several hours and went throuh Excel Bible or some other book on Excel. I think the best help anyone could provide to you in such situation is to advise the same - learn some Excel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Never really did any for other sports except maybe football but that's a while ago. Don't think many people do it the way i do with those sheets, nor should they. You need to find out what works for you as an individual. Turn it around, define a single trading strategy: 1 for what reason would a price move (either way) ( 1a what would be an indication of a future price movement ) 2 what pieces of information are relevant to detect such situation ( split in pieces that can be collected manually and ones that need automation ) 3 where/how can the situation be monitored, like paper trading 4 define the trade range, range of prices, range of volume, most importantly the timeframe based on common sense. 5 monitor the situation taking notes along the way, refine the points in 4 until you get something 'comfortable' for you. monitor/paper trade for a substantial number of trades before drawing conclusions and when you got a collection go back to point 1, 2 and 3 and first see if you've missed something, then see if a conclusion is possible. Design a notes sheet that works for yourself for that strategy. ( it could be a piece of paper or a spreadsheet or database ) The key is simply that you have notes BEFORE drawing any conclusions as to the validity of the defined strategy and continue doing so. Is it a lot of work and effort, yes. It becomes easier once you have a strategy that works for you, but only a little :lol You can also throw some cash at the markets and see what happens but i think you may already know the answer to that. Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong?Do you have a record of your trades, why you entered a trade, when you entered, when you exited, and why. Can you look back objectively with all relevant information available/recorded to see, first of all what you did, then where you could make an adjustment. If not then that is what's missing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? btw, layed Nadal at 1.02 then backed half at 1.04 , then i thought that was it and backed again at 1.01 just now Tomic got a double break in the second set, odds up as far as 1.09 :wall Still, always nice to see a plan come together :lol Come on Rafa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? He heard me, 3 breaks back to take the second set, gotta love Rafa :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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