Flat Racing - 19th of January

[Monterosso]

7:00 Kempton - Iron Condor - 2.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365) This class 4 contest over 2m at Kempton looks to be wide open but I believe it'll be run to suit Iron Condor, who steps up to 2m for the first time and boasts very good form figures here when running over 1m 4f on all bar one of his visits, the other being over 1f shorter than that. His course form reads - 2-1-1-2-2-5, which is very impressive given he's usually a horse who would be considered inconsistent, however, he seems to have improved since he began racing on the polytrack of Kempton. His first run came off a mark of 66 and he has subsequently improved 11lbs to run off 77, but all 3 of the 4 year old runners are getting a 7lb weight allowance for their age, which should prove vital over this 2 mile trip. All of his winning and impressive form is over 1m 4f but he is bred to stay 2 mile, even though he failed to see out 1m 6f on the turf. He's a much better all weather horse so I've no doubts that he should stay on with his usual game attitude over this extended distance. Iron Condor usually finishes out his races in good fashion and comes out well on most speed figures, however, I find him a little one paced and he's often left to grind out a finish as it takes him a while to pick up, which may have less influence over the extended trip that he now faces. Over 2 miles, he could possibly have the best turn of foot in the race, assuming he manages to stay and I believe he's the most suited to how the race will be run, as there are a fair few prominent racers in opposition, which should ensure a decent pace on which he usually thrives. He is a very strong traveler and always gives the impression that he'd make a very good stayer, so now it's his chance to prove that on the surface where he has run his best races. Luke Morris takes the ride today on Iron Condor, to whom he has guided to success before and has been on board the progressive 4 year old on 8 occasions, clearly forming a good partnership as they've won once and finished second on 3 occasions. Morris is having a great time of it over the winter and has started 2011 like a man possessed, with 10 winners from 54 winners, giving him a mightily impressive 19% strike rate. Along with that, he has had a further 15 finishing in the places, so he's clearly doing something right. He rides the Kempton track very well and even shows a £15 LSP from his 400+ rides around the track. When riding for trainer James Eustace at Kempton, Morris shows a £22 LSP and has a decent 9% strike rate. The Eustace yard don't have too many runners over the Winter but had Iron Condor out 3 weeks ago for a run, in which he finished 5th over 1m 4f here. I'm not sure whether the yard were affected weather-wise, but that run is sure to have their only runner of the day spot on for the race ahead. He has been competitive in a class 3 event here, when finishing a half length 2nd to Spensley, who is a progressive type and was gaining victory to notch up a hat-trick, this is clearly very good form and a repeat would put my selection bang in contention now in a class 4 handicap where he is in receipt of weight from all, bar 2. In opposition, there are many good types to overcome but I believe that many are either under-priced, too high in the weights or unlikely to be suited to how the race is run. The James Eustace trained hold up performer fits the bill for me and if he runs to his abilities, sees out the trip and gets a good gallop, then he should be bang in contention. I feel the 10/1 is much too big and is based on his lack of experience over this trip, which I believe he should actually improve for, on breeding at least. I had him marked up as a fair 6/1 shot and maximum each way stakes are in order, for what is my only bet of the day. Hopefully he'll run to how I know he can and give me my first winner in what feels like a lifetime.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing - 19th of January 18:00 Kempton Etoile Filante drops back to 1m4f, a trip that I think will prove to be her optimum after an experiment with 2 miles last time. She showed some promise in all three of her maiden runs, the best coming over CD, where she was still quite green but ran with some credit behind Dilys Maud, who went close in handicap company (albeit a poor one). She was quite well backed on handicap debut, and went off 17/2, she was unruly in the stalls which might have contributed to a poor run, although she seemed to travel well enough throughout the 2m affair. However, her stamina petered out a couple of furlongs from home. I immediately hoped they’d drop her back in trip, which they have done! She has been dropped another lb for that effort, and is definitely worth another chance. This is her best trip I reckon; Steve Drowne (Gask preferred jockey) retakes the ride, and at the odds, is worth a tentative EW stake. Not drawn too well, but is usually held up anyway. She’ll have to be at her best to beat Carter, but he isn’t the most consistent type and perhaps best swerved at them odds. 1pt EW @ 16/1 Victor Chandler