BBOTD - 18th of January

[Monterosso]

2:50 Wolverhampton - Just For Leo - 1pt @ 15/2 (Bet365 - BOG) Not a race for big stakes and this isn't a horse with inspiring results, but I believe he could have a good chance in what looks a relatively weak field. He's a 17 race maiden but seems to have little problem handling polytrack and may just have everything to suit. There's a fair bit of pace in what will be a truly run 5f, which should suit Just For Leo, who came a quarter length 2nd at this course when it was riding on the slow side of standard. He showed bright early speed that day and tried to make all of the running but was eventually worn down on the turn for home when pressed by the eventual winner. However, very little got into it from behind and he plugged on gamely to post one of his best all weather runs to date. That was a claimer though, and this is much tougher. Extra stamina could prove vital with the course likely to be riding similar to that day and I feel the step back to 5f here is just what's required. He then raced 2 days later at Lingfield, in a similar class 5 handicap to that of what he faces today. 3rd place was all he could muster over a the flying 5f but he was just 1 length away and posted an effort considered to be a step up on what he had done at Wolverhampton. He couldn't get to dominate from the front but stayed on gamely in the final furlong to close at the finish, again showing that along with his speed, he has plenty of stamina (if you could call it that) for the sprint distances. He's at his best when there's a good gallop and I'm nearly certain it'll be like that today, with horses who stay further that this trip likely to be in the shake up. Just For Leo ran at Southwell on Sunday, posting a terrible effort but I don't think he travels at all well on the fibresand and is much better suited to Wolverhampton and Lingfield. He was outpaced and in rear throughout, but I don't feel that's a true reflection of his abilities and he should have a much better chance of gaining compensation for those 2 close efforts earlier on in the month. There shouldn't be any problem with running a couple of races in the space of 2 days, as he has done it before without showing up too badly. The draw in stall 8 hasn't been too kind to him but I don't think it'll have a major bearing on the race and stall 8 actually has a very good record in these 8 runner races, so hopefully it proves a positive this time around. The yard are in good form and had 2 winners today, plus my selection who finished 2nd. They run another horse in this race too but I'm not overly keen on his chances and he's readily passed over. Robert Walsh takes the ride, he's a very competent 7lb claimer and was the man on board for that close up 2nd over 6f here. He seems to do well on the all weather and from his 2 rides on Monday, he had a winner and a 2nd place. Walsh comes to Wolverhampton for just 1 ride and will hopefully make it count. He also seems to do well here having had 1 winner and 2 seconds from just 4 rides, which ain't bad going for such an inexperienced rider. His 7lb claim leaves my selection with just 8st 3lbs on his back, which is surely a help and effectively leaves him off a mark of 55, which understates his abilities. The 15/2 available on Just For Leo looks significantly too big to me, as I had him down as a 9/2 chance with solid claims on his best form. If he can run up to his true levels then he has a good chance in what is a very weak race, however, that's also the reason this is only a minimal bet. I can't go in with more than minimal stakes in a race full of inconsistent animals who could always spring a surprise. Fingers crossed that it's David Evans' runner who springs the surprise.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD - 18th of January 2.30 Bears affair 1pt win sp Won only outing in a bumper beating champion court by a hd over distance on Gd ground. That form was franked when runner up went on to win a class 1 at Chelt 3rd and 4th then went on to place so that form in terms of this race is head and shoulders above the others. Although yet to go over hurdles , booking of ap signals the intentions that the horse is ready to go again