Head to Head or Grading

[AndrewKent]

Hi folks, Again, in my quest to understand some of the different types of systems there are out there, a question jumped out at me. I have seen statistical analysis carried out for Head to Head matches (although this brings up several different questions around how many head to head matches should be taken into consideration, for example, are matches between Team A and Team B 10 years ago relevant?) and I have read a little bit about a Grading system which I think is employed by Matt Finnigan and Pete Norsted over at www.premier-betting.com. My question is, what would you consider to be more relevant when trying to work out the outcome of a match? My first impression would be a grading system, as there would be more matches to analyse in a closer time frame to the game in question if you were looking at a Grade A vrs Grade B team than you would if you were looking at Team v Team B in a head to head? But in saying that, some teams play well against specific opposition as opposed to a specific TYPE of opposition. What does everyone think? Andy

[davidc]

Re: Head to Head or Grading

Hi folks, Again, in my quest to understand some of the different types of systems there are out there, a question jumped out at me. I have seen statistical analysis carried out for Head to Head matches (although this brings up several different questions around how many head to head matches should be taken into consideration, for example, are matches between Team A and Team B 10 years ago relevant?) and I have read a little bit about a Grading system which I think is employed by Matt Finnigan and Pete Norsted over at www.premier-betting.com. My question is, what would you consider to be more relevant when trying to work out the outcome of a match? My first impression would be a grading system, as there would be more matches to analyse in a closer time frame to the game in question if you were looking at a Grade A vrs Grade B team than you would if you were looking at Team v Team B in a head to head? But in saying that, some teams play well against specific opposition as opposed to a specific TYPE of opposition. What does everyone think? Andy

Hi Andrew. Firstly let me say that I don't mean for this post to sound harsh, but it probably will. :spank You have started a number of threads recently with basically the same type of question, i.e. how to set up a system and what parameters and variables need to be used and what strengths should be applied to those parameters and variables. In my opinion, while it is good to ask for other peoples opinions and ideas (this is a forum after all) and these type of discussions can also be helpful to others the problem for me is (here comes the harsh bit!) I think that if you are trying to set up a system you and only you can decide on what variables should be included and which elements should be weighted more than others. My suggestion to you would be to devise a system, back test it and then start posting your selections and if, as sometimes happens when a system goes 'live', the results do not match the expectations then start tweaking your various different elements at that stage. Gl

[AndrewKent]

Re: Head to Head or Grading After you opening I thought I was in for a roasting! Seriously, I didn't think there was anything harsh about your post at all, if anything, it simply points to the fact that there isn't a one size fits all approach. Which from my view is a good thing because it's not as if I'll test things and find out later that I shouldn't have bothered, as there is only one way to "beat the bookie" as it were. I'm thinking that from what I have read so far and the feedback that I have had, that small and well thought out tweaks to a system as one goes along is a good thing? Anyway, thanks for your input and apologies for the volume of threads, I have a ton of questions that keep coming up! Andy

[jtw1]

Re: Head to Head or Grading I can only give an opinion about h2h's . You ask if a game played between played 10 years ago Team A and Team B can be relevant .. IMO if they have played each other regularly and recently in those intervening years and there is a definate advantage to one or other teams , and i would be looking for around an 80% win ratio , then it would advantageous to include that fact in your analysis. Football is a game played as much in the brain as with the feet and , imo, once a team starts to build up a decent run against certain opposition then that starts to ingrain itself into both Team A and Team B . Looking forward to you actually posting some system selection AK , remember sometimes the simplest is the best , try not to get bogged down in too many stats and figures .

[AndrewKent]

Re: Head to Head or Grading Thanks guys, The factor that seems to be obvious to me from my testing so far is although I'm seeing a high % of success, the games my initial system is throwing up hardly merit a system at all. For example, this weekend Rangers v Hamilton - Lay Away Hibs v Celtic - Lay Home Almeria v Real - Lay Home Barca v Malaga - Lay Away These were only a selection of the games I've found this weekend but you don't need a system to tell you these bets. This was based on Power Ratings, Game Form and Penetration Plus. I guess my next step would be to look at these games and see how I can identify if there is any value in them, ie AH or something of the like.

[AndrewKent]

Re: Head to Head or Grading Also, I seem to keep being drawn to regression analysis to determine value odds. Perhaps if the suggestion is that I should put my own stamp on any system I make, then this should be a factor?