Head to Head or Grading

[AndrewKent]

Hi folks, Again, in my quest to understand some of the different types of systems there are out there, a question jumped out at me. I have seen statistical analysis carried out for Head to Head matches (although this brings up several different questions around how many head to head matches should be taken into consideration, for example, are matches between Team A and Team B 10 years ago relevant?) and I have read a little bit about a Grading system which I think is employed by Matt Finnigan and Pete Norsted over at www.premier-betting.com. My question is, what would you consider to be more relevant when trying to work out the outcome of a match? My first impression would be a grading system, as there would be more matches to analyse in a closer time frame to the game in question if you were looking at a Grade A vrs Grade B team than you would if you were looking at Team v Team B in a head to head? But in saying that, some teams play well against specific opposition as opposed to a specific TYPE of opposition. What does everyone think? Andy

[davidc]

Re: Head to Head or Grading

Hi folks, Again, in my quest to understand some of the different types of systems there are out there, a question jumped out at me. I have seen statistical analysis carried out for Head to Head matches (although this brings up several different questions around how many head to head matches should be taken into consideration, for example, are matches between Team A and Team B 10 years ago relevant?) and I have read a little bit about a Grading system which I think is employed by Matt Finnigan and Pete Norsted over at www.premier-betting.com. My question is, what would you consider to be more relevant when trying to work out the outcome of a match? My first impression would be a grading system, as there would be more matches to analyse in a closer time frame to the game in question if you were looking at a Grade A vrs Grade B team than you would if you were looking at Team v Team B in a head to head? But in saying that, some teams play well against specific opposition as opposed to a specific TYPE of opposition. What does everyone think? Andy

Hi Andrew. Firstly let me say that I don't mean for this post to sound harsh, but it probably will. :spank You have started a number of threads recently with basically the same type of question, i.e. how to set up a system and what parameters and variables need to be used and what strengths should be applied to those parameters and variables. In my opinion, while it is good to ask for other peoples opinions and ideas (this is a forum after all) and these type of discussions can also be helpful to others the problem for me is (here comes the harsh bit!) I think that if you are trying to set up a system you and only you can decide on what variables should be included and which elements should be weighted more than others. My suggestion to you would be to devise a system, back test it and then start posting your selections and if, as sometimes happens when a system goes 'live', the results do not match the expectations then start tweaking your various different elements at that stage. Gl