brecki Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Hello everybody, here comes my second system. I backtested an idea that seems to be profitable and I want to paper-trail it here to test it. I use the ratings of goonersguide and bet against any home favorite that has a rating of +120 or better and has a minimum winning odd of 1,26 or higher (on betfair). I bet on double chance draw/away win (which is nothing else than laying the favorite). The formula to calculate the odd is : 1/(home odd-1) +1 These bets will be with betfair. I also bet on asian handicaps where the dog gets an advantage of 1,5 goals. These bets will be with Bet365. Every bet will be fixed before the kick-off. I try to publish the bets as early as possible but of course I have to know the gooners ratings first. I will start with 100 Points - any bet will be with a 2 point stake. I expect to get a consistant monthly win. Bets will be not that much, approximately 20 per month. Any questions and commentaries are welcome ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Here come the first bets. As mentioned any bet´s stake is 2 points ! Bets on draw/away win (all bets with Betfair): Villareal - Osasuna 2,72 Inter Mailand - Bologna 3,94 Manchester City - Wolves 3,70 Chelsea - Blackburn 4,23 Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with Bet365) : Villareal - Osasuna 1,50 Inter Mailand - Bologna 1,85 Manchester City - Wolves 1,85 Chelsea - Blackburn 2,175 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with Betfair): Villareal - Osasuna 2,72 :@ Inter Mailand - Bologna 3,94 :@ Manchester City - Wolves 3,70 :@ Chelsea - Blackburn 4,23 :@ Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with Bet365) : Villareal - Osasuna 1,50 :@ Inter Mailand - Bologna 1,85 :@ Manchester City - Wolves 1,85 :) Chelsea - Blackburn 2,175 :@ Not the best start, but things can change very quickly ! Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 87,70 points Total staked 16,00 points Number of bets 8 Winning bets 1 Losing bets 7 Strike rate 12,5 % Yield -76,88% Profit (or Loss) -12,30 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with Betfair): Palermo - Brescia 3,00 Dortmund - Stuttgart 2,85 Bayern - Kaiserslautern 4,70 Villareal - San Sebastian 2,66 Bilbao - Hercules 2,32 Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with Bet365) : Palermo - Brescia 1,60 Dortmund - Stuttgart 1,625 Bayern - Kaiserslautern 2,05 Villareal - San Sebastian 1,55 Bilbao - Hercules 1,375 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with >Betfair): Palermo - Brescia 3,00 :@ Dortmund - Stuttgart 2,85 :) Bayern - Kaiserslautern 4,70 :@ Villareal - San Sebastian 2,66 :@ Bilbao - Hercules 2,32 :@ Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with >Bet365) : Palermo - Brescia 1,60 :) Dortmund - Stuttgart 1,625 :) Bayern - Kaiserslautern 2,05 :@ Villareal - San Sebastian 1,55 :) Bilbao - Hercules 1,375 :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 84,95 points Total staked 36,00 points Number of bets 18 Winning bets 5 Losing bets 13 Strike rate 27,78 % Yield -41,81% Profit (or Loss) -15,05 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with >Betfair): Mallorca - Gijon 2,22 Inter - Palermo 2,28 Atl. Madrid- Bilbao 2,12 Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with >Bet365) : Mallorca - Gijon 1,35 Inter - Palermo 1,40 Atl. Madrid- Bilbao 1,35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with Betfair): Mallorca - Gijon 2,22 :) Inter - Palermo 2,28 :@ Atl. Madrid- Bilbao 2,12 :) Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with Bet365) : Mallorca - Gijon 1,35 :) Inter - Palermo 1,40 :) Atl. Madrid- Bilbao 1,35 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 89,83 points Total staked 48,00 points Number of bets 24 Winning bets 10 Losing bets 14 Strike rate 41,67 % Yield -21,19% Profit (or Loss) -10,17 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with >Betfair): Manchester United - Aston Villa 3,70 AS Rom - Brescia 4,57 Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with Bet365) : Manchester United - Aston Villa 1,825AS Rom - Brescia 2,025 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite This one looks better: Bets on draw/away win (all bets with Betfair): Manchester United - Aston Villa 3,70 AS Rom - Brescia 4,57 Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with Bet365) : Manchester United - Aston Villa 1,825 AS Rom - Brescia 2,025 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with Betfair): Manchester United - Aston Villa 3,70 :@ AS Rom - Brescia 4,57 :) Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with Bet365) : Manchester United - Aston Villa 1,825 :@ AS Rom - Brescia 2,025 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 95,02 points Total staked 56,00 points Number of bets 28 Winning bets 12 Losing bets 16 Strike rate 42,86 % Yield -8,89% Profit (or Loss) -4,98 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with Betfair): Manchester City - West Bromwich 3,17 Villareal - Levante 4,45 Chelsea - Liverpool 2,54 Valencia - Hercules 3,12 Neapel - Cesena 3,94 Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with Bet365) : Manchester City - West Bromwich 1,65 Villareal - Levante 2,15 Chelsea - Liverpool 1,475 Valencia - Hercules 1,60 Neapel - Cesena 1,90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with >Betfair): Manchester City - West Bromwich 3,17 :@ Villareal - Levante 4,45 :) Chelsea - Liverpool 2,54 :) Valencia - Hercules 3,12 :@ Neapel - Cesena 3,94 :@ Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with >Bet365) : Manchester City - West Bromwich 1,65 :@ Villareal - Levante 2,15 :) Chelsea - Liverpool 1,475 :) Valencia - Hercules 1,60 :@ Neapel - Cesena 1,90 :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 96,25 points Total staked 76,00 points Number of bets 38 Winning bets 16 Losing bets 22 Strike rate 42,11 % Yield -4,93% Profit (or Loss) -3,75 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with Betfair): Palermo - Florenz 2,22 Bayern - Hoffenheim 3,56 AC Mailand - Parma 3,38 Arsenal - Wolverhampton 4,57 Liverpool - Wigan 3,38 Manchester United - Manchester City 2,22 Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with Bet365) : Palermo - Florenz 1,375 Bayern - Hoffenheim 1,75 AC Mailand - Parma 1,60 Arsenal - Wolverhampton 2,05 Liverpool - Wigan 1,70 Manchester United - Manchester City 1,375 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Re: Against the Favorite Bets on draw/away win (all bets with >Betfair): Palermo - Florenz 2,22 :) Bayern - Hoffenheim 3,56 :@ AC Mailand - Parma 3,38 :@ Arsenal - Wolverhampton 4,57 :@ Liverpool - Wigan 3,38 :) Manchester United - Manchester City 2,22 :@ Asian Handicaps +1,5 for the away team (all bets with >Bet365) : Palermo - Florenz 1,375 :) Bayern - Hoffenheim 1,75 :@ AC Mailand - Parma 1,60 :@ Arsenal - Wolverhampton 2,05 :@ Liverpool - Wigan 1,70 :) Manchester United - Manchester City 1,375 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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