Jumps Racing - 11th of January

[Monterosso]

1:40 Newcastle - Leith Walk - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) Very competitive and trappy class 4 event over 2miles at Newcastle. I'm expecting they'll go a decent clip here and that my play into the hands of this relatively lightly raced 8 year old mare. Leith Walk is a hard one to get right, as she often flatters to deceive when looking in with a big chance and finding little for pressure. Her only career success was over 2m 4f at Musselburgh in a good quality class 3 handicap. They went a mighty fine gallop that day on similar ground to what we'll get today and that played right into her hands, eventually finishing very strongly from off the pace to score by 4 lengths and still going away. She always gave the impression that she'd stay further than that trip but she hasn't managed to put in a good performance at anything beyond 2m 4f. Now, Leith Walk is running over 2m, which wouldn't exactly seem ideal but I think the race could revolve around who is staying on the best in conditions where the speedier horses may well fold under pressure. If this race pans out as expected, then I find it hard to believe that she wouldn't be staying on as well as anything else and if for once, she found something off the bridle, then she could possibly scoot away to win for the 2nd time in her 15 race career. She won that class 3 event off a mark of 94 and only runs off 3lbs higher today having failed to impress after that, she should prove to be well handicapped and we know she holds her own against better opposition that this, so hopefully everything else will go in her favour. Leith Walk comes here on the back of a 2 month break. She ran over a testing 2m 1f at Carlisle, coming within 2 lengths of a horse who has subsequently followed up that success to frank my selections recent form. She just didn't handle the ground as well as the winner but looked to be tanking along when coming to challenge, hitting 1.21 in the process. She found little off the bit but was still upsides the winner when making a mistake at the final flight, plus the ground was very testing and todays is much more ideal, with the potential of even more rain, which would help. There seems to be a fair few possible pace setters here and I'm just praying that they go off at the speed I think they will. It's an 18 runner race so something is bound to tank along in front to ensure it's a good test and this will be where Leith Walk can be at her most effective. The galloping and testing nature of the Newcastle track should also play into her hooves and the very testing run in will hopefully be where she confirms her abilities to do so. She's bring partnered today by a jockey called Callum Whillans, who I've never heard of and rides for someone who I can only assume is his father, as they share the same second name. The jockey takes off a massive 10lbs to leave the mare carrying only 9st 12lbs in this race, which is another positive. The trainer has a very good record at the track, having had a 100/1 winner previously along with many other good priced winners. He has had 9 finish first and 10 finish second, all that coming from 62 runners, with a massive LSP of £127. The young claimer hasn't got amazing stats by any means but he has won and came 2nd on Leith Walk, all this coming from 5 rides. She was 25/1 when winning that class 3 event so hopefully she'll defy decent odds to fly home once again. I marked the horse up as a fair 10/1 shot with very good place claims assuming there's a good gallop, if there's not, then we can forget about this horse having any chance as she won't win a sprint in the run in but would probably come there shaping as if she's traveling the best so an in-running lay may be advisable, especially as she often trades a lot shorter than her BSP. She's currently trading at 14/1, which I think could end up drifting out, despite the fact that I think she should be shorter. There isn't a cent around for her on the exchanges at the moment and the fact that she's from an unfamiliar yard may mean we'll get an even bigger price come the off, which I'd be quite happy with! Medium each way stakes in the hope that she is as good as I think she can be, plus there's 4 places being paid, so I feel she could certainly fill one of those if she runs to her abilitiy.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jumps Racing - 11th of January

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Leicester 14:00
Selection	Earth Magic
Strength	1/10
Date	11/01/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 0.00
Reasoning	Only raced 4 times since joining current yard last year. They tried him in a Class 2 Hurdle and a couple of Class 3 Chase after. LTO was for a win in a Seller (67 days ago) by a distance of 33 lengths from second place. Trainer Evan Williams have a 28% strike rate with selllers this season, 5 wins from 18. Paul Moloney is booked to ride and that is a very positive sign for a winning entry. The selection is owned by R E R Williams. Moloney for the trainer have a 43% strike rate this season, 9 wins from 21 when it comes to hurlders. This is the only entry of the day from the own1er.