Top 2 facing tough spot

[averick]

Villain: VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 3.4, Hands: 4700 Checked the flop as I don't see myself getting 3 streets of value from most of his 3bet flatting hands. Thoughts?

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1115475

DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $66.95

BTN: $111.10

SB: $297.80

Hero (BB): $100.00

UTG: $106.00

UTG+1: $104.10

MP1: $74.40

MP2: $107.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Q A

5 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, SB calls $2, Hero raises to $10.70, BTN calls $8.20, 1 fold

Flop: ($23.90) Q J 2(2 players)

Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($23.90) 4(2 players)

Hero bets $15.90, BTN raises to $31.80, Hero calls $15.90

River: ($87.50) A(2 players)

Hero checks, BTN bets $68.60 all in

[Nade]

Re: Top 2 facing tough spot This is tough. Firstly i think i would always cbet this flop with AQ as i would with air/ semi-bluffs. Because of this it must look like to villain you have a value hand as the normal line for a bluff is to cbet the flop, so he knows you have a hand when you bet the turn and you made it pretty big $16/$21 so he is definitely putting you on a pretty solid/big hand i'm sure. With all this in mind he still decides to min raise the turn which must be dangerous for him as you still have QQ/JJ in your range so his play is definitely odd. He must put you on a big value hand and you have the nuts in your range so for him to raise is pretty gross as he isn't repping much. I find it hard to believe villain won't expect you to shove turn, i'm convinced he's thinking you will be shoving all value hands you play like this over his min turn raise which is another reason to think he has a real big hand like a set. The river is really bleh, but i'm not sure the A changes much, he won't really put KT in your range and he rarely has it too and there's only really KJcc and maybe T9cc in his club draw range. So he either has a huge value hand or a bluff. The only middling hand he has is QJ which perhaps he could have, but there's only 2 combinations of this: QJdd and QJhh and we can discount this more with the way the hands played. With all this said it really only points to him having a set of 22,44 or maybe JJ, though it's a tiny range and i don't know if i'd be able to work all that out and fold it in game but it probably is a fold. It's good though analysing these things away from the tables as the more we do the easier it becomes doing the analysis a lot quicker in play. Interesting hand :ok