Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends

[bowles10]

This was a popular thread last year and very useful I will use this thread for my trends over the meeting also any stats you feel relevant, please post here

[NewPunter]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Paul Jones Wetherby Guide is out around the end of Feb this year iirc, I'll post the stats up from that when it arrives

[ganjaman]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends there are a number of diffrent trends for the supreme novice hurdle,here are a few that i have got i hope they will be of some use the irish runners have a strong record in this race with 10 winners in the past 17 runnings of the race favourites have a poor record in the supreme novice with only two favs winning in the last 17 yrs of the race 12 of the last 17 runners in the race have won last time out 12 of the last 17 winners never ran at cheltenham as i said above these are a few that i have got but im sure a few other forum users will put up some of there own, good luck everyone

[billvernon]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends I would consider the following as a rough guide for Cheltenham Festival. Horse placed 1st or 2nd this side December Horse has had experience of Cheltenham Course Placed preferably. Do not back hot Favourites blindly as History shows poor show of the Hot Favs Look closely at top 6 in betting all races Do not back horses in handicaps over 11 stone except in specialised H/Cap races like Glenfarclas Chase Look at horses below 10 years old in majority of races.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends we will post up the analysis we did from last year which i think was very telling I will get my trends up before each race but you will need to wait until the night before for these !!

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Didn't want to make a new thread but the ATR Cheltenham site has just gone live with more and more content to be adde don the run up the festival www.attheraces.com/cheltenham

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Day 1 - CHELTENHAM Race 1 Supreme novices hurdle 12/14 winners having won LTO 13/14 ran in Jan (3) or Feb (10) other winner ran in Nov. 12/14 had at least 3 runs that season. 13/14 had at least 2 wins that season 11/14 had ran 4 times or less that season. 3/13 Favs 8/13 Irish trained 1. Reducing the field Take the best 3 stats from above, LTO Jan / Feb, 1st LTO, & 2 wins this season leaves us with: Al Ferof, Gibb River, Recession Proof, So Young, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre, Magens star, Marsh Warbler. Irish trained horses must be kept on side as they have a good record (bold above) The main profile is 3-4 runs and LTO in Feb which leaves us with: Al Ferof, Gibb River, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre. 2. Consider the main contenders Looking at the favourite Cue Card, it has run 3 times so far over hurdles and won the Cheltenham bumper last year. However it raced LTO in December and therefore would have to overcome a 94 day absence. Only once has this race been won by a horse that ran in the Cheltenham bumper which was back in 2003 when Back in front won after coming 3rd in the Bumper. Another horse impacted by that stat is Al Ferof who finished 2nd in the bumper last year. Megastar, Hidden Universe and Dunraven Storm all finished down the field in that race. Al Ferof has had the required 4 runs and meets the stats apart from the bumper runm last season. A few horses come into the race unbeaten – Gibb River for Nicky Henderson who has won 3 races at Huntingdon, Plumpton and Wincanton. Spirit Son has won both races at Huntingdon and Exeter. Magens star has only had 2 runs and won both at Thurles and Clonmel. Sprinter Sacre hasn’t done much wrong to date and merits consideration after wins at Ascot and Ffos Las this year. 3. Other factors Average win odds for this race are over 12/1 for the last 10 years which included a 20/1 & 40/1 winner. Last year backed that up with Menorah coming home at 12/1. 4. Final analysis The bumper stat is a concern for both Cue Card and Al Ferof. The horses that do meet the trends are Gibb River, Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son all 3 trained by Henderson! Looking at their bare form, Gibb River who is a former flat horse who has beaten what has been put in front of it to date in its 3 runs, the horse it beat LTO out has come out and won since however this is a massive step up but the stable want to see what the horse can do at this level and its possibly unexposed. Sprinter Sacre is National Hunt bred and was beaten into 2nd by Frascati Park on its first race over timber. Has since won 2 races well and its a plus that the horse is French bred however hasn’t yet run on an undulating track which may find the horse out. Spirit Son is another French bred horse who has won on a course similar to this, Exeter. Demolished a decent Paul Nicholls horse last time out at Exeter and should go close here as 1st choice from the stable. 5. Bets Gibb River 5pts ew 20/1 >Bet365 Spirit Son 10pts win 11/2 >Bet365 Race 2 - Arkle chase Key Trends 9/14 won LTO 14/14 won or placed LTO 12/14 last ran Jan / Feb 12/14 won by 2nd, 3rd or 4th in betting behind favourite 1/14 won by favourite 5/14 French bred 6/14 5 - 6yo 11/14 more than 2 runs that season 12/14 2 or more wins that season 13/14 5 or less runs that season 1. Reducing the field Concentrating on the main trends, won or placed LTO, Jan/Feb last run, won by 2nd-4th in betting, 2 or more wins & 5 or less runs in the season. Taking the horses that ran in Jan/Feb LTO and were 1st or placed LTO, we have left: Captain Chris, Dan Breen, Finnians Rainbow, Giorgio Quercus, Medermit, Mikael D’Haguenet, Stagecoach Pearl, Realt Dubh. 2 or more wins and a lightly raced sort is the next cut off, which leaves: Finnans Rainbow, Giorgio Quercus, Medermit. 2. Consider the main contenders Top rated hurdlers normally run well in this and Medermit comes out the top of these on that basis. Finnans Rainbow was 5th here last year in the Neptune Hurdle and has won all 3 chases this year so far, however has only beaten 10 horses in the process which is a concern when facing a much stronger field in this race. It does like to lead from the front. Ghizao hasn’t ran since end of December which also rates a negative for me as i prefer horses to have had a recent run. Wasn’t in the same frame as a hurdler as Medermit or Finnians Rainbow. Did beat Captain Chris last time out which looks decent form. Realt Dubh won a Grade 1 last time out albeit not the most difficult and would appreciate any decent ground conditions despite having good form on the soft. Rock Noir will like the ground and with McCoy on board could well make the frame here (McCoy has a great record in the race). It didn’t handle the Sandown fences too well but will be more suited to this track. 3. Other factors 2nd-4th in the betting is significant here as outsiders just don’t win but the fav has a very poor record also. 4. Final analysis The fav does have a poor record and it is close between 3, i hope Ghizao goes to favouritism and i will be happy with the final 3 on the trends, Medermit, Finnians Rainbow and Giorgio Quercus (ew). However with Medermit also vying for favouritism, i am swayed towards the other 2 only with Rock Noir also in for an EW bet. 5. Bets Finnians Rainbow 10pts win 4/1 >Bet365 Giorgio Quercus 5pts ew 25/1 >Bet365 Rock Noir 5pts ew 14/1 >Bet365 Race 3 William Hill Trophy Key trends 14/14 Class 3 race LTO or better 14/14 Best win Class 3 or better 13/14 10+ plus career runs 13/14 Aged 7 to 10 11/14 Jan/Feb LTO 13/14 23f+ win 13/14 2-5 runs this season 13/14 Wins / Runs 20% or better in whole career 11/14 10st 11lb or less 11/14 4+ course runs 1/14 FAvs 1/14 over 11st 2lb 1. Reducing the field The trends here are very strong and we can narrow the field now with the help of the main trends, leaving us with: Taking the 23f+ win we remove Great Endeavour, Tatenan, Bensalem, Crescent Island, Reve De Sivola, Quantativeeasing, Sunnyhillboy, Swing bill, The Rainbow Hunter, Safari adventures, Frankie Anson, Le Burf, Chief Dan George, Far More serious, The Sawyer, , Ballyvesey. Definity. Rare Bob, Gentle Ranger, The Sliotar, Carrickmines, No Panic, Quattrocentro. The favoured final profile has to be the 4+ course runs as horses are often campaigned here in previous years. This leaves the following: Blazing Bailey, Fair along, Exmoor Ranger, Razor Royale, Den of Iniquity, Wolf Moon. The final cut would be to remove those above 11st 2lb which leaves: Razor Royale, Den of Iniquity, Wolf Moon. 2. Consider the main contenders We should look at those horse that run well at the course and have 1-2 as last time out. Blazing Bailey tops the card and loves the festival and Cheltenham however a mark of 153 may be beyond it these days. Only 9yo so don’t rule out after 2 wins this season so far. Great Endeavour was 2nd last time out and won here at the festival last year. Should go very well in this as obviously laid out for the race by Pipe. Bensalem is another horse that has course form but i always feel this horse has the odd bad jump in it. Reve De Sivola likes it here also but has yet it can run over 3m at this level. Sunnyhillboy is another horse that i am unsure whether it will get the 3m trip. 3. Other factors Wichita Lineman was the 1st winning favourite for over 10 years in 2009. 4. Final analysis The trends are pushing me towards Razor Royale and Wolf Moon which are both good prices however i don’t think you can overlook Great Endeavour here. Alan King will think he has the race won with Blazing Bailey keeping the weights down for Bensalem. 5. Bets Great Endeavour 13/2 Stan James 10pts win Wolf Moon 14/1 >Bet365 10pts win Razor Royale 33/1 Corals 5pts ew Race 4 - Champion Hurdle Key trends 12/14 (85%) won last time out with the others finishing 2nd & 3rd 10/14 (71%) won a graded race LTO (5 @ Gr1, 3 @ Gr2 & 2@ Gr3) 14/14 (100%) ran LTO in Jan or Feb 4/14 (28%) won AIG champion hurdle in Ireland before the festival 10/14 (71%) had 4 or more runs in the season 7/14 (50%) came into the race seeking a hat trick 12/14 (85%) had previous festival form 9/14 (64%) had won at a previous festival 12/14 (85%) were aged 6 to 8 11/14 (78%) were priced 10/1 or lower 1/14 (7%) were 5yo (katchit) 7/14 (50%) were irish trained 5/14 (35%) were favs 1. Reducing the field The LTO stat again would appear to be key, horses that finished in the 1st 3 LTO. This removes Barizan, Clerks Choice, Cristal Bonus, Get me out of here, Khyber Kim, Overturn, Salden Licht, Silviniaco Conti, Soldatino, Solix, Sublimity, Walkon, ZaYNAR The Jan/Feb stat would remove Cue card, Menorah. Previous festival form and ages 6-8 are 2 stats to consider also leaving: Binocular, Blackstairmountain, Dunguib, Oscar whiskey, Peddlars Cross, Starluck, Thousand Stars 2. Consider the main contenders Khyber Kim is a horse that merits respect but again i am concerned over the absence from December which also cast doubts over Menorah for me both having not run since the Cheltenham meeting in December, both horses may be capable of running well fresh but the festival stats are against it. Last years winner Binocular deserves to be favourite and really impressed at Kempton for me. It was a bit of a dud race last time out at sandown, however i am sure the horse will be thereabouts again on a course where it has run to the top of its ability each time. Could well win for the 2nd year running. Hurricane Fly is the one everyone hyped up following its high profile absence from previous festivals. I discount based on the fact it hasn’t raced here before and all form is centred around Solwhit who also flopped here last season. Peddlars Cross is a lovely horse and has yet to be beaten in its career. This is a serious horse and i cant believe it is still around 13/2 for a bet. Dunguib is the other one who could spring a surprise here if the horse can act round here. Wasn’t ridden well last year when a hot fav for the supreme novices. 3. Other factors Last 4 winners have been priced at 22/1, 10/1, 9/1 & 8/1. 4. Final analysis With the surprise omission of Binocular this leaves the race open for Peddlars Cross in my opinion. This horse is very gutsy and will not give up without a fight in the closing stages. I still cant have Hurricane Fly at all but Dunguib may be the one EW now. 5. Bets Peddlars Cross 9/2 Stan James 10pts win Dunguib 10/1 Stan James 10pts win

[superfoo]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Love that Bowles:clap Just want to comment about my 3 selections so far... Recession Proof Menorah Oscar Whisky Menorah although makes the shortlist is discounted due to favouritism. The other two make the shortlist but no mention after. Is it just a case of they are your less fancied of the shortlist or was there something else that discounted them? I love Chelt stats and was wondering if these werent far off the mark basically.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Fantastic stuff bowles, good luck :ok

[superfoo]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Sorry, got confused with Menorah - which equates to Medermit:$ Also looked at Kings Fontaine in Willhill but not menrtioned, though I presume it failos several stats.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends

Love that Bowles:clap Just want to comment about my 3 selections so far... Recession Proof Menorah Oscar Whisky Menorah although makes the shortlist is discounted due to favouritism. The other two make the shortlist but no mention after. Is it just a case of they are your less fancied of the shortlist or was there something else that discounted them? I love Chelt stats and was wondering if these werent far off the mark basically.

I discounted Recession Proof on the fact that it had 5 runs this season, the profile of the winner normally had 4 or less, however the 2-5 run stat is popular at Cheltenham so i wouldnt let that put you off. The horse won the Tote Gold Trophy, same as Get me out of here last year. Menorah was due to the date of its last run Oscar Whiskey is a horse that met a number of the trends, however i couldnt see it beating Binocular to be honest, however now that one has been removed, it has a chance. it isnt the quickest at the hurdles and i rate Peddlars better.

Sorry, got confused with Menorah - which equates to Medermit:$ Also looked at Kings Fontaine in Willhill but not menrtioned, though I presume it failos several stats.

King Fontaine has no Cheltenham form hence why i discounted. Trainer is 0 from 35 here at the track also, dont let me put you off though, these are just stats! Thanks for the comments

[superfoo]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Thanks for the reply, most winners seemed to be left out just to one stat? Still reckon a big day will come with the trends.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Day 2 Race 1 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Key trends 13/14 1st or 2nd over 3m (chase) 12/14 1st 4 LTO 11/14 4+ times over fences 12/14 4+ runs in season 11/14 aged 7-9 1/14 Favs 5/14 25/1 SP or higher 4+ runs in the season & 1st 4 LTO firstly leaves us with: Alfa beat, Arabella boy, Be there in five, C'est ca, Cannington Brook, Captain Americo, Chamirey, Fredo, Galaxy Rock, Magnanimity, Some target 1st or 2nd over 3m (chase) is another key stat leaving: Alfa beat, Arabella boy, Be there in five, Cannington Brook, Captain Americo, Chamirey, Galaxy Rock, Some target. Aged 7-9 removes Arabella Boy (6yo) so its down to the last stat of 4+ times over fences leaving: Alfa beat, Be There in Five, Cannington Brook, Captain Americo, Chamirey, Galaxy rock, Some Target 2. Consider the main contenders Alfa Beat has won its last 5 races, has form over 3m which is essential in this marathon contest, key to this horse is decent ground and should get it here if they keep the water off. Its a worry though that the horse comes here after a 182 day absence. There is no evidence it will be best fresh. Beshabar was a reasonable hurdler last year but its lack of experience over fences will tell here, only 2 outings and unseated on one of them, i would be concerned it wont get round here. Chicago Grey meets most of the trends although doesnt figure in the final shortlist due to ots 5th place LTO, looking at its cheltenham form though, you would be mad to overlook this one. 3. Other factors As with other Cheltenham races, course form can manage the field down a bit as well. Cannington Brook, Chamirey, Galaxy Rock have the Cheltenham runs in thier locker. 4. Final analysis 2 trends i always like to have on my side are LTO win and a decent course run. The nearest horse to meet that trend is Chamirey. 5. Bets Chicago Grey 5/1 Bet365 Win (10) Chamirey 20/1 Stan James EW (5) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.05 Neptune Novices Hurdle Key trends 14/14 Won or placed LTO 13/14 1st or 2nd LTO 13/14 top 6 in betting 14/14 Jan or Feb LTO 13/14 age 5 or 6 10/14 won LTO 9 of last 11 ran in graded company LTO 1. Reducing the field Take LTO 1st/2nd aged 5 or 6 & LTO in Jan Feb. Accordingtolaurence, Al Ferof, Ballyhaunis, Bobs Worth, Court in Motion, Highland Valley, Minella Class, Oscars well, Our Island, Rock on ruby, Sinbad the sailor, So Young, Tornado Bob, Zaidpour. Take out the rags in terms of prices leaves Al Ferof, Bobs worth, Court in motion, Minella class, Oscars well, Rock on Ruby, So Young, Tornado Bob and Zaidpour. Graded company looks the best final method of choosing final selections so this removes Al Ferof, Minella Class, So Young, Tornado Bob. 2. Consider the main contenders So Young has been well touted for this race and deemed to be the best of the irish challengers, however the horse hasn’t beaten anything of note so far. Ruby Walsh fancies this horse strongly and a number of people have napped it. Bobs Worth has won 2 trial races this year at Cheltenham and therefore is exposed to the fact we know it likes the trip and the course. This will be much tougher however beat Rock on Ruby last time which looks decent form. Oscars well seems to want a bit of cut in the ground and will drift from its current price, i would want about 5/1 to make this horse any value. Does have the graded form to win this race. 3. Other factors Henderson has never won this race and Nicholls recent record is 1 place from 6 entries. 4. Final analysis Bobs worth, Oscars well, Court in Motion and Rock on Ruby made the final cut on the trends, however only Oscars and Rock on Ruby are declared now so will go with both. Nicholls has a poor record in the race but something has to take on the irish! 5. Bets Oscars well 4/1 Paddy Power Win (10) Rock on Ruby 15/2 Stan James Win (10) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.35 Royal & SA Chase Key trends 14/14 1st or 2nd LTO 10/13 rated 134 or lower over hurdles 14/14 ran jan / feb LTO 13/14 3-5 runs this season 12/14 NH bred 4/14 Favs 2/14 unbeaten over fences 1. Reducing the field LTO stats rule again and the 3-5 runs is significant with horses having had a reasonably busy campaign as it is difficult to lay a horse out for this race. Aiteenthirtythree, Bostons Angel, Jessie’s Dream, Magnamity, Master of the hall, Quito de la roque, The Giant Bolster, Wayward Prince, Wymott. Those unbeaten are 2 from 4 so this removes Aiteenthirtythree, Wayward Prince, Wymott. This leaves Bostons Angel, Jessies’s Dream, Magnamity, Master of the hall, Quito de la roque, The Giant Bolster. Alla re NH bred, so this is the final shortlist. 2. Consider the main contenders Time for Rupert is undoubtedly the best horse in the race based on its 2 chases this season, it is a worry that the horse hasn’t run since December for me, in previous seasons the horse had had more runs than this at this stage and the 3 month gap is too much in my opinion. Horses win this race after being on the go all season, Bostons angel may be found out by the trip having decent form over 20f. Master of the Hall looks to have a decent chance but is it better on a flat course, will be in the shake up if acting on it. The Giant Bolster has Cheltenham form but at 6yo is possibly just too young to bag this. Aiteenthirtythree would be the first unbeaten horse since Denman in the last 10 years to win, however has followed a similar route as Denman so must have a chance here. 3. Other factors 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 which is a stand out stat, this is from 54 runs and 8yo’s have won 1 from 26 runs. 4. Final analysis Following the trends, i would have Quito de la roque, Master of the Hall and i would also retain Aiteen thirttythree. Time for Rupert is discounted on the negatives about the absence and for Jessie’s Dream on age (8yo). Quito does not run. 5. Bets Master of the Hall 16/1 Bet365 EW (5) Aiteenthirtythree 9/1 Tote Win (10) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Champion Chase Key Trends 8/10 Won LTO 7/10 Top 2 in betting 7/10 Won at the festival 9/10 Ran LTO within 2 months 4/10 Favs 10/10 French or Irish bred 9/10 Under 11/1 SP Remove Cornas, French Opera, I'm so lucky as neither are IRE or FR bred. Remove Woolacombe Folly as hasnt raced for 95 days and Captain Cee Bee 77 days. Won LTO is always a stat i follow which leaves Golden Silver & Master Minded to fight this one out. Master Minded is going for a 3rd win in the race and should go very close at a nice price, it was odds on last year! Bets Master Minded 7/2 Paddy Power Win (10) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 4.0 Coral Cup Key trends 12/14 top two thirds of h'cap 12/14 5-8 yo 11/14 3+ runs in the season 10/14 Jan / feb LTO 8/14 1st LTO 1/14 fav 1. Reducing the field For a handicap the stat of 1st LTO still figures highly as does a recent run a Those in the top two thirds of the handicap are key to this race. Firstly only look at the top two thirds, so thats everything with 10st 2lb upwards, leaves us with horses 1-18. The 3+ runs and 5-8yo is the next to consider leaves us with only Solix, Battle Group, CArlito Brigante, Bothy, Pistolet Noir, Orsipus, Tiger O’Toole, For non stop, Ballyhaunis, Busker Royal. ok, lets keep to the Jan/Feb LTO stat to leave a final shortlist, leaves: Solix, Battle Group, Carlito Brigante, Bothy, Pistolet Noir, Tiger o’Toole, Ballyhaunis, and Busker Royal. 2. Consider the main contenders Aegean Dawn was pulled out of the Imperial Cup last weekend and if lining up here would have a chance with the Mile Chief form-line looking really good, however not having run since Nov is a negative for me. Call the Police has form but only on heavy ground in Ireland, this will be much faster. Bothy ran Menorah to a nk at the beginning of the season getting nearly 2 stone however thats a decent form line as well and its recent second in the Tote Gold Trophy again shows the horse can handle itself in these type of races. For non stop has the Cheltenham form after its 2nd to Grand Crus here in December. Was beaten into 4th over xmas but in front of it in 3rd was Al Ferof who won the Supreme Novices today. 3. Other factors to consider LTO winners have a decent return here with 8 from last 14 winners coming from that bracket. All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in last 4 races. 4. Final analysis Taking all the trends into account, Solix, Battle Group, Carlito Brigante, Tiger o’Toole, Ballyhaunis. The form lines of the favourites are there to be seen but they haven’t been seen for a while so i am happy to stick with the trends for the final selections here apart from Solix who finished 7th LTO whereas the other horses had won or placed. 5. Bets Battle Group 33/1 Hills EW (5) Carlito Brigante 20/1 Hills EW (5) Tiger O’toole 25/1 Hills EW (5) Balyhaunis 16/1 Hills EW (5) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4.40 Fred Winter Hcap Hurdle 3/6 French Breds 6/6 Ran LTO Feb/Mar 5/6 1st LTO 5/6 3 or more runs 3/6 Exactly 3 runs 6/6 OR 120+ 5/6 Weight under 11st 4lb 2/6 Weight under 11st 3/6 Favs (was joint) Only 6 runnings of the race to date but some clear trends coming through now. LTO stats match up with most of the Cheltenham races. Looking for something gaining at least 120 OR & had 3 or more runs and ran Feb/Mar LTO & won LTO. This whittles it down to 3 contenders. Whitby Jack 11-4 Paintball 10-9 Kayef 10-6 We have to go by the weight stat as over 80% of winners have carried less than 11st 4lb. Celtus is the only other one i have heard god reports about and will be included. Play on all of these 4. Bets Celtus 11/1 Stan James Win (10) Whitby Jack 12/1 Hills Win (10) Paintball 9/1 Bet365 Win (10) Kayef 25/1 Stan James Win (5)

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends A good day yesterday with 20/1 & 5/1 winner plus a 33/1 place. Day 3 Trends are here: Race 2 - 2.05 Pertemps Final Key trends 14/14 aged 6-9 12/14 ran over 26 days ago 11/14 won over 3m or further 12/14 carried 11st 2lb or less 8/14 won LTO 2/14 favs 1. Reducing the field Age stat & the LTO since last run stat & the weight are those to look at first Remove: Knockara Beau, Working title, Duke of Lucca, Mobaasher, Essex, Buena Vista, Barwell Bridge, Rivage D’or, Son amix, Dont push it, Queiros Bleu Those who have won over 3m are : Michael Flips, Kayf aramis, Lush life, Barafundle, Mr Moonshine, Tarablaze, Viking Blond, 2. Consider the main contenders Sivota has been well touted from Ireland since the weekend and could start favourite in this normally open contest. It has form on mainly a softer surface which may be against it here. It does boast a 22f win. Chartreux is very lightly raced and comes here with a good chance but could lack for experience. Barafundle hasn’t been seen for a while and that is a concern again. Buena Vista runs well here and is back off same mark as last year when winning this race, could be the surprise in the field after some mediocre runs earlier this season. 3. Other factors to consider Unbelievably, course winners are 0 from 49 in this race and that stat possibly should be taken into consideration. 3. Final analysis Michael Flips always runs well here, and should be in the shake up again. Barafundle form is mainly on flat tracks and may not act here. Lush Life was impressive in December when winning here over 3m, however the stat of course winners removes that one. Tarablaze comes from a yard that produces Cheltenham winners and should be kept on side after coming back from chasing. Mr Moonshine has some reasonable form and seems better on soft ground. Kayf aramis and Viking Blond represent an out of form stable so will be avoided. 4. Bets Michael Flips 25/1 Corals EW (5) Tarablaze 20/1 Bet365 EW (5) Race 3 - 2.40 Ryanair chase 6 runnings of this race so far 6/6 age 6-10 4/6 Sp under 5/1 5/6 won or placed LTO 5/6 JAn/Feb LTO 6/6 Graded race LTO 6/6 2-4 runs in season 6/6 Course winner 1. Reducing the field Course winners aged 6-10 with LTO in a graded race are the key stats so far leaving: Albertas Run, Captain Cee Bee, Gauvain, Hey Big Spender, Poquelin, Tartak, Voy Pur Ustedes The horses that have had 2-4 runs are: Albertas run, Captain Cee Bee, Gauvain, Poquelin, Tartak Won or placed LTO leaves Gauvain, Poquelin only 2. Consider the main contenders Poquelin likes it here and boasts a record of 1-2-1-2-5-1 in the last 2 seasons here. Price looks plenty short enough at around 5/2. The 96 day absence also puts me off. Kalahari King has no doubt been laid out for the race and has to go for this race now as its stamina will be key. I am not always sure it finds enough and in this class field, i have a few doubts it may not quite get there. Jy'Vole was 3rd in this race last year and does stand another chance of going close. Last years winner Albertas Run sets the standard and i would rather it be in better form than currently showing. 3. Final analysis Poquelin & Gauvain meet all the trends but its the absence of Poquelin that worries me. I will leave it in though and give it a favs chance in this race, i also like Tartak of the others. Last years winner Albertas Run could surprise but with those form figures, i am leaving it out. 4. Bets Poquelin 5/2 Bet365 – Win (10) Gauvain 12/1 Bet365 – Win (10) Race 4 - 3.20 World Hurdle Key Trends 13/14 6-8yo's 14/14 1st 4 LTO 12/14 in 1st 4 all season 13/14 SP 15/2 or shorter 12/14 raced 3 times or fewer in season 12/14 1st or 2nd LTO 12/14 Previous festival runners 4/14 favs 1/14 5yo's or 9yo's 0/14 irish winners 1. Reducing the field 1st 4 all season, 6-8yo's, raced 3 times or fewer Big Bucks, Grand Crus, Mourad, Zaynar Taking into account previous festival runners and those 1st or 2nd LTO Big Bucks won this last year and 1st LTO Grand Crus has won at Cheltenham but never ran at the festival and 1st LTO Mourad was 3rd in the Triumph in 2009 and was 1st LTO Zaynar was 3rd in the Champion Hurdle last season and was 4th LTO 2. Final Analysis Its an easy one with Big bucks the stand out horse on the Trends. I wont look any further. I would expect the 1-2-3 to be Big Bucks, Grand Crus and Mourad. 3. Bets Big Bucks Evs Stan James Win (10) Race 5 - Festival Plate Key trends 14/14 won at class 3 or higher 13/14 carried 10st 12lb or lower 13/14 ran within 40 days 12/14 rated no higher than 141 11/14 12/1 SP or over 12/14 1st 5 LTO 11/14 ran at a previous festival 5/14 1st LTO 5/14 Pipe trained 0/14 irish winners 1/14 Favs 1. Reducing the field some quite strong trends here with the 1st 3 trends leaving this shortlist of horses (irish trained horses removed also) Holmwood Legend, Peplum, Just snudge, Aimigayle, Storymaker, Boble Lord, I’m a Legend Those in 1st 5 LTO are: Holmwood legend, Peplum, Bible Lord, I’m a Legend The SP stat could be another reduction factor as can the previous run at the festival before so: Horses that have ran at a previous festival is Bible Lord from the shortlist Avoid Headgear, top 4 in the betting and top 4 in the weights. 2. Final analysis Concerns me that a lack of horses meet the final trends as they are very strong in this race. Bible Lord will have to be a bet as it survived the shortlist cut. I also like Peplum although its a concern that it only raced 5 days ago. I’m a Legend has a very low weight but does have headgear which is a poor stat. Quartz de Thaix meets a number of trends and i will leave that one in also. 3. Bets Bible Lord 33/1 Bet365 EW (5) Peplum 33/1 Stan James EW (5) Quartz de thaix 13/2 Stan James Win (10) Race 6 - Kim Muir Chase Key trends 12/14 aged 8-10 11/14 carried less than 11st 2lb after jockey claims 9/14 ran within 25 days of the race 2/14 Favs 7/14 priced 16/1 or higher 7/14 1st / 2nd LTO Highest RPR 149 Lowest RPR 124 9yo’s have a good record & those who ran over 3m + LTO 1. Reducing the field Difficult trends this one leaving Richards Sundance, Dance Island, Mostly Bob, Junior, Palypso De Creek, Khachaturian, Pomme Tiepy, Teddys Reflection 2. Final Analysis I prefer to follow horses that have finished close up on their last start so lets go to 5 places to get a final list – Dance Island, Junior, Khachaturian, Teddys Reflection. Remove Dance Island as the higher weights struggle here. 3. Bets Junior 6/1 Corals Win (10) Khachaturian 25/1 Bet365 EW (5) Teddys Reflection 40/1 SportingBet EW (5)

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Friday At Cheltenham 1.30 Triumph Hurdle Key trends 12/14 Feb LTO 14/14 raced over 2m 1f or less LTO 13/14 won LTO (1 was disqualified but this counts in the stats) 13/14 won 50% of hurdle races 11/14 won at least 2 over hurdles 9/14 3-5 hurdles runs that season 10/14 top4 in betting 3/14 Favs 2/14 Irish trained 1. Reducing the field Some good stats here so first cut leaves Brampour, First Fandango, Grandouet, Zarkander, High ransom, Unaccompanied The feb stat also looks ok so this leaves Brampour, Zarkander, High Ransom and Unaccompanied The irish struggle with this race however they possibly don’t have as many entries as the English. Only Unaccompanied has won 2 hurdles out of this final shortlist. 2. Consider the main contenders Granduoet and Sam Winner both merit respect and have the best form lines in the race. The race often goes to a horse with a recent run and LTO 1st. 3. Final analysis Grandouet is difficult to oppose but Unaccompanied has the best stats and will be on the book tomorrow for me. Outsider for me is Local Hero already a course winner here and could nice at an EW price. 4. Bets Unaccompanied 7/1 Bet365 Win (10) Local Hero 25/1 Paddy Power EW (5) 2.05 County Hurdle Key trends 13/14 top two thirds of h'cap 11/12 5-8 yo 12/14 3+ runs in the season 11/14 Jan / feb LTO 6/14 1st LTO 1/14 fav 1. Reducing the field ok, the top 2/3 of the handicap's record looks the one to be with with also 3+ runs, age & also a run since new year. Leaves us with (from 10st 7lb & above): nearby, Get me out of here, Dee ee Williams, Alaivan, Hunterview, Grey Soldier, Ciceron, Tarkari. No winner has carried more than 11st 8lb since 1960, also there is a date stat with 16 of the last 18 winners had run within 35 days of this race leaving: Nearby, Get me out of here, Ciceron, Tarkari, Grey Soldier 2. Consider the main contenders Hunterview looks better suited to a flat track although won easily enough at Musselburgh LTO. Ski Sunday is interesting after its long lay off, won well at Kempton and connections targeted this race. Snap Tie has been well backed but is too high in the weights and the long lay off puts me off. Irish Challengers Dirar and Final Approach should be considered but have only had 2 runs this season, of the 2 Dirar ran only 22 days ago and i would leave that one on side. Dee ee Williams and Zanir ran well for places in this last year and could go well at big EW prices. 3. Final analysis Nearby has a decent spell in mid season and seems best on a flatter track, hence why the horse has never ran here before. Get me out of here 2nd here at the festival behind Menorah hasn’t ran to form yet this season and a return here may help. McCoy rides as normal which should help its chances. Grey Soldier will prefer fast ground and if the rain comes may come up short, Elliot and Russell both on form this week though. Ciceron is in form and trainer Williams commented her horses would be better with a spell of rain so lets hope for that one that the weather changes. Tarkari was 11th in this last year and off a higher weight you would not expect it to win this, however was going well here in November when falling in the Greatwood when going well 3 out behind Menorah, since then been highly tried in top grade hurdles without disgracing himself, good ew chance at big odds. 4. Bets Get me out of here 16/1 Hills EW (5) Tarkari 50/1 Paddy Power EW (5) Dirar 13/2 Bet365 Win (10) Zanir 33/1 Bet365 EW (5) 2.40 Albert Bartlett Hurdle only 5 runnings of this race to look at 6/6 2-4 runs 3/6 Course win that season 5/6 Course form 4/6 Won or 2nd LTO 6/6 G2 LTO 5/6 21f+ win 1. Reducing the field I like the stat of 2-4 runs and 21f+ win with previous course form, leaving a shortlist of: Champion Court, Join Together, Mossley, Rif. Join Together did not run in a Grade 2 contest last time out, the others did. 2. Consider the main contenders Bob’s Worth is unbeaten over hurdles but Henderson appears to have gone off the boil since Tuesday and maybe his horses are a bit short. It has a similar profile to Tell Massini as last year which failed to live up to expectations. Court in Motion will appreciate any cut in the ground and represents Emma Lavelle’s best chance of a winner this week. Ignore latest run at Haydock. Mossley didn’t handle the soft ground LTO and i have concerns this one will act on ground expected to worsen. Join Together represents the Nicholls stable and should be in the frame alongside Court in Motion. Alle Garde could surprise at a nice price for its irish connections. 3. Final analysis Bob Worth avoided the earlier races for this one however 3/1 is too short for me especially with the way hos horses have been running the last few days. Join Together, Court in Motion are close in my book and backing both would be the best bet against the field. Champion Court was well beaten by Bobs Worth last time out and that form will be difficult to reverse and i prefer a LTO of 1-2-3 which the horse does not have. 4. Bets Join Together 9/1 Paddy Power Win (10) Court in Motion 9/1 Paddy Power Win (10) 3.20 Gold Cup Key trends 14/14 2-5 runs in season 11/13 RPR 172-178 13/14 aged 7-9 13/14 Gr 1 or 2 LTO 12/14 Course win or place 12/14 50% or more wins to runs 10/14 LTO Dec/Jan 12/14 Best win Gr 1 race 11/14 1st or placed LTO 8/14 Hurdle Graded race win 5/14 Favs 2/14 Aon Chase winners 1. Reducing the field Need to concentrate on 2-5 runs, age, Gr1/2 LTO China Rock, Kempes, Long Run, Pandorama, What a FRiend Course win or place keeps only China Rock, Long Run, What A Friend as the possible winners of the race. Pandorama has never ran at Cheltenham which rules that one out for me. 2. Final analysis Is it reasonable to remove previous winners Denman, Kauto and Imperial Commander on age grounds alone? I am worried by the injury sustained by Imperial C and the recent form of the trainer, i expect the price to drift before the off. Denman was 3rd in the hennessey and again no recent run is just a slight concern although sure it will come to the race on form and any rain would help its chances as well. 3. Bets What a Friend 33/1 Paddy Power EW (5) Long Run 5/1 Paddy Power Win (10) Denman (f/casts with the above 2) 5.15 Grand Annual Key trends 14/14 Distance winner 12/14 aged 9 or less 13/14 2+ runs in season 10/14 8/1 or less SP 12/14 carried no more than 10st 12lb 11/14 5-13 chase runs 7/14 1st or 2nd LTO 4/14 favs 4/14 irish trained 1. Reducing the field 1st 3 trends & the weight are quite significant leaving: De Boitron, Pigeon Island, Grand Lahou, Anquetta, Keki Buku, Film Festival, Quito du Tresor, Riquez Dancer, Mister Stickler. The weight stat is surprising as some good horses enter this so it just shows its difficult to win form the top of the handicap. Also consider the 5-13 chase runs, leaving Pidgeon Island, Film Festival, Quito du Tresor, Riquez Dancer, Mister Stickler. 2. Final analysis Take out Riquez Dancer from the above list and the other 4 horses look to have a chance Pigeon Island won this last year and likes the track, Mister Stickler would possibly prefer a flatter track than this. Imsingingtheblues ran in the Arkle only 2 years ago and if producing that type of form, should be considered and has to defy the weight stat. Film Festival is from USA bred and that profile does not normally figure here as more suited to FR and IRE bred. 3. Bets Pigeon Island 20/1 Bet365 EW (5) Quito Du Tresor 50/1 VC Bet EW (5) Imsingingtheblues 8/1 Bet365 Win (10)

[Dividenconquer]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Stats / Trends Hey Bowles, if you havent done your each-way bets yet for the first 2 races, i think bet365 pays an extra place compared to paddy powers.. PP only paying 1-2-3 in first anyway.. best of luck